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Swing it

Futures · Started Apr 2008

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.4%
Max Drawdown
12.1%
Trades
26
Win Trades
69.2%
Profit Factor
1.60
Win Months
4.5%

About this strategy


The swing it system unique stands on its winning combinaton of both automatic signals and discretionaty trading. The system trades only S&P500 e-mini
The system method is contrarian trading and mostly lean on statistical analysis and mechanical signals.

No leverage is used. The purpose is controling risk , applying risk management and reducing volatility.

The signals meant to be less risky and therefore more conservative.
Trades usually takes 5-14 days.


Swing it trades 1 S&P500 E-mini contract for every 100k capital. This way the focus on risk management should be no more than 5% draw down (60-70 points mental stop loss).

Only mental stops are being used and if the trade going against wrong direction in 60-70 points, I exit. Trades are made once a week or two.

The system goal is to achieve 20% yield a year with no-leverage (Only 65-70% of Capital)

The system can lose as it wins so it's very important to use risk management.


Good trading





This is the performance sheet of indexwin.com :

http://bp1.blogger.com/_wUP_2wEty6M/SAEPLiHspTI/AAAAAAAAAH8/VXmZI5t5h_M/s1600-h/1.PNG


Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment or trading advice. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or conclusion on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Always consult your financial adviser(s) before making any investment or trading decisions.








Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2008-0.72.85.12.21.64.1-4.54.40.916.7
20091.31.6-3.4-1.9-1.4-0.2-0.6-0.1-1.10.0-1.0-1.2-7.7
20100.7-0.1-0.1-0.10.00.0-0.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.4
20110.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/14/2008
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age224 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades26
# Profitable18
% Profitable69.2%
Avg trade duration9.7 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown12.2%
drawdown periodFeb 12, 2009 - Jan 14, 2010
Annual Return (Compounded)0.4%
Avg win$1,600
Avg loss$2,207

Ratios

W:L ratio1.63
Sharpe Ratio-0.63
Sortino Ratio-1
Calmar Ratio0.12

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.08
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life475.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-468.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.4%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity11.5%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$2,206
Avg Win$1,600
# Winners18
Sum Trade PL (losers)$17,652
Sum Trade PL (winners)$28,806
Num Months Winners14
# Losers8
% Winners69.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table222

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)14036.67
Avg Position Time (hrs)233.94
Avg Trade Length9.70
Last Trade Ago6075

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-0.01
Treynor Index0.48

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades3.53
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.27
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats40.23
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats31.40
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.50
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.29
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.28

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.01
SD0.06
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.26
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.26
df63
t0.60
p0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.11
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.59
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.11
Sortino ratio0.45
Upside Potential Ratio1.58
Upside part of mean0.05
Downside part of mean-0.04
Upside SD0.04
Downside SD0.03
N nonnegative terms52
N negative terms12
N of observations64
Mean of predictor0.38
Mean of criterion0.01
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.06
Covariance-0.00
r-0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error62
t(b)-0.74
p(b)0.77
t(a)0.80
p(a)0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.07
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.93
Jensen alpha (a)0.02
Mean0.01
SD0.05
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.23
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.23
df63
t0.54
p0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.08
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.62
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.08
Sortino ratio0.40
Upside Potential Ratio1.52
Upside part of mean0.05
Downside part of mean-0.04
Upside SD0.04
Downside SD0.03
N nonnegative terms52
N negative terms12
N of observations64
Mean of predictor0.32
Mean of criterion0.01
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.05
Covariance-0.00
r-0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error62
t(b)-0.59
p(b)0.72
t(a)0.68
p(a)0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.07
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.00
Jensen alpha (a)0.02
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.03
SD0.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.16
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.16
df1397
t0.37
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.01
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.69
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.01
Sortino ratio0.23
Upside Potential Ratio2.93
Upside part of mean0.33
Downside part of mean-0.30
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms1233
N negative terms165
N of observations1398
Mean of predictor0.47
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.54
SD of criterion0.16
Covariance-0.03
r-0.38
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error1396
t(b)-15.56
p(b)0.69
t(a)1.24
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.21
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.23
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
Mean0.01
SD0.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.08
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.08
df1397
t0.18
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.77
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.93
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.77
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.93
Sortino ratio0.11
Upside Potential Ratio2.78
Upside part of mean0.32
Downside part of mean-0.31
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms1233
N negative terms165
N of observations1398
Mean of predictor0.33
Mean of criterion0.01
SD of predictor0.54
SD of criterion0.16
Covariance-0.03
r-0.39
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error1396
t(b)-15.67
p(b)0.69
t(a)0.78
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.18
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.11
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor2.18
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.63
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.98
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.63
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations64
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low12
Percentage of outliers low0.19
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high12
Percentage of outliers high0.19
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-35.56
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.11
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations1398
Minimum0.90
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low165
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high165
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.20
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.04
Quartile 10.04
Median0.04
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.10
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations11
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.03
Median0.04
Quartile 30.08
Maximum0.11
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30.06
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-679.90
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-5.12
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.12
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-398357376
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)336
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.13
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.13
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.42
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.12
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.12
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.62
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 35 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ES H0long1Jan 22, 2010Jan 25, 2010$505
ES H0short1Dec 18, 2009Jan 22, 2010($258)
ES Z9short1Nov 5, 2009Dec 18, 2009($2,208)
ES Z9long1Nov 3, 2009Nov 5, 2009$667
ES Z9long1Oct 28, 2009Oct 29, 2009$142
ES Z9short1Sep 10, 2009Sep 18, 2009($1,096)
ES U9short1Jul 20, 2009Jul 23, 2009($1,508)
ES U9short1Jun 25, 2009Jul 14, 2009$692
ES M9short1Jun 2, 2009Jun 5, 2009$92
GBP/USD short100May 15, 2009May 15, 2009($105)
ES M9short1Apr 6, 2009May 12, 2009($3,392)
ES M9short1Mar 13, 2009Mar 26, 2009($3,983)
ES H9short1Feb 9, 2009Feb 13, 2009$1,989
ES H9short1Jan 6, 2009Jan 9, 2009$1,667
ES Z8short1Dec 10, 2008Dec 12, 2008$573
ES Z8short1Dec 4, 2008Dec 5, 2008$592
ES Z8short1Nov 5, 2008Nov 6, 2008$4,992
ES Z8long1Oct 2, 2008Oct 6, 2008($5,158)
ES Z8long1Sep 29, 2008Sep 30, 2008$294
ES U8short1Aug 27, 2008Sep 17, 2008$4,292
ES U8short1Aug 11, 2008Aug 20, 2008$2,030
ES U8short1Jul 22, 2008Jul 28, 2008$892
ES U8long1Jul 14, 2008Jul 17, 2008$1,342
ES U8short1Jun 17, 2008Jul 2, 2008$4,092
ES M8short1Jun 2, 2008Jun 10, 2008$1,517
ES M8short2Apr 22, 2008May 27, 2008$2,284

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.