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Index Spreads

Options · Started Nov 2007

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
1.7%
Max Drawdown
64.2%
Trades
199
Win Trades
43.7%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
24.2%

About this strategy



Thank you for looking at my trading plan. I have been trading options for over 15 years and have a positive track record for multiple years on Collective 2.

**System parameters were changed, after 2013, to trade with prevailing market direction. With new parameters, 2013 would have had less but more profitable trades and a positive year overall.

Index Spreads is a very simple system with a goal of making 8-16% return on investment per month. The overall goal is to make 60% per year on capital invested (on average). These are only goals and no performance can be guaranteed.

This system sells a call or put spread on the SPY etf when the S&P 500 is overbought or oversold. To determine this, I use a tool that I have customized to work with the parameters of this strategy. I will use this tool roughly 90% of the time, the other 10% being discretionary.

Most brokers only charge for 1 side of an iron condor. It is (obviously) an individual's choice on how much capital to allocate per spread. Everyone�s account and circumstances are different, but it is wise to have some reserve capital for the occasional adjustment of a position.


Here is what I provide with each subscription:
**Exact strikes and credit objective per trade.
**A vested interest in the system's performance- I trade this system in my personal accounts.
**Quick and clear communication to questions.
**Briefing at the end of expiration detailing the past month and what we will be looking forward to in the upcoming weeks.

For more information or if you have any questions, feel free to contact me.

NOTE: You will be able to make significantly better after-commision returns than those reflected here on Collective 2 if you use a discount options broker.

Thanks,
Dave

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20070.15.45.5
20081.14.56.25.16.1-2.75.02.11.6-17.90.72.212.0
20090.12.27.92.44.48.0-13.6-0.86.92.17.62.331.3
2010-3.69.3-12.9-7.45.70.911.22.9-1.9-6.45.2-2.0-1.9
2011-12.9-2.1-0.72.316.20.46.5-11.08.2-4.812.88.620.8
20123.6-2.03.36.42.86.06.55.82.32.44.66.158.9
2013-4.4-6.3-7.5-14.3-14.713.4-39.5-3.07.96.7-8.315.1-51.1
2014-2.21.712.215.52.5-4.9-0.7-18.837.6-40.0-17.40.0-30.9
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began11/28/2007
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age229 months
What it tradesOptions
# Trades199
# Profitable87
% Profitable43.7%
Avg trade duration26.7 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown64.2%
drawdown periodJan 09, 2013 - Oct 17, 2014
Annual Return (Compounded)1.7%
Avg win$1,324
Avg loss$891

Ratios

W:L ratio1.15
Sharpe Ratio0
Sortino Ratio0.01
Calmar Ratio0.05

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life418.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-43.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)1.7%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)5.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity216.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.7%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options1.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)623
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$891
Avg Win$1,324
# Winners87
Sum Trade PL (losers)$99,787
Sum Trade PL (winners)$115,164
Num Months Winners55
# Losers112
% Winners43.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table227

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)38518.53
Avg Position Time (hrs)641.98
Avg Trade Length26.70
Last Trade Ago4313

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.03
Treynor Index0.02

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.09
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.09
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.10
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades17.91
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.24
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats24.03
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats39.12
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.13
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.31
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.05

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.12
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.57
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.57
df105
t1.70
p0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.23
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.10
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.23
Sortino ratio0.75
Upside Potential Ratio1.94
Upside part of mean0.31
Downside part of mean-0.19
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms60
N negative terms46
N of observations106
Mean of predictor0.06
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance-0.00
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error104
t(b)-0.42
p(b)0.52
t(a)1.73
p(a)0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.26
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.08
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
Mean0.10
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.43
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.43
df105
t1.29
p0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.10
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.23
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.09
Sortino ratio0.54
Upside Potential Ratio1.70
Upside part of mean0.30
Downside part of mean-0.20
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms60
N negative terms46
N of observations106
Mean of predictor0.04
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance-0.00
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.10
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error104
t(b)-0.29
p(b)0.51
t(a)1.31
p(a)0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.33
Jensen alpha (a)0.10
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
Mean0.11
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.59
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.59
df3050
t1.75
p0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.25
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.07
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.25
Sortino ratio0.80
Upside Potential Ratio6.24
Upside part of mean0.89
Downside part of mean-0.78
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms1003
N negative terms2048
N of observations3051
Mean of predictor0.07
Mean of criterion0.11
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance0.00
r0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error3049
t(b)3.39
p(b)0.00
t(a)1.70
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24
Treynor index (mean / b)2.08
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
Mean0.10
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.49
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.49
df3050
t1.45
p0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.15
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.17
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.15
Sortino ratio0.65
Upside Potential Ratio6.05
Upside part of mean0.89
Downside part of mean-0.79
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms1003
N negative terms2048
N of observations3051
Mean of predictor0.04
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance0.00
r0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.09
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error3049
t(b)3.42
p(b)0.00
t(a)1.42
p(a)0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.22
Treynor index (mean / b)1.71
Jensen alpha (a)0.09
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.01
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-18.55
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms172
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.08
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.01
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-3.15763010599649e+16
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-3.14375993861079e+16
df171
t-2.23277998051164e+16
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.47694997228749e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.81057999810724e+16
Sortino ratio-18.55
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms172
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.08
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0
DF error170
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-2.21209004930499e+16
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.26164996085431e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations106
Minimum0.76
Quartile 11
Median1.02
Quartile 31.05
Maximum1.13
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.07
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low8
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.85
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.01
Mean of outliers high1.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.06
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.12
Number of observations3051
Minimum0.91
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low446
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high531
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.55
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations172
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations8
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.06
Median0.12
Quartile 30.14
Maximum0.39
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.09
Mean of quarter 30.13
Mean of quarter 40.28
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.39
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations107
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.41
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.09
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high12
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.15
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.65
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.27
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.21
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.13
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)646
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.17
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.11
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.28
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.40
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.96
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.17
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.11
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.27
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.30
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal5.23
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 41 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SPY1422K211 long50Nov 5, 2014Nov 23, 2014($235)
SPY1422K206 short50Nov 5, 2014Nov 21, 2014($1,670)
SPY1424V186 short40Oct 10, 2014Oct 25, 2014$3,612
SPY1424V181 long40Oct 10, 2014Oct 25, 2014($1,948)
SPY long4000Oct 19, 2014Oct 20, 2014($11,485)
SPY1418V191 short40Sep 25, 2014Oct 19, 2014$4,572
SPY1418V186 long40Sep 25, 2014Oct 19, 2014($2,428)
SPY1412I200 short35Aug 18, 2014Sep 13, 2014$1,866
SPY1412I205 long35Aug 18, 2014Sep 13, 2014($130)
SPY1422T181 long30Aug 6, 2014Aug 23, 2014($1,221)
SPY1422T186 short30Aug 6, 2014Aug 23, 2014$2,499
SPY1416H205 long30Jul 22, 2014Aug 17, 2014($141)
SPY1416H200 short30Jul 22, 2014Aug 17, 2014$2,559
SPY1416T188 long30Jul 29, 2014Aug 6, 2014$1,218
SPY1416T193 short30Jul 29, 2014Aug 6, 2014($4,902)
SPY1419G204 long30Jun 23, 2014Jul 20, 2014($171)
SPY1419G199 short30Jun 23, 2014Jul 20, 2014$1,299
SPY1421F200 long33May 27, 2014Jun 22, 2014($188)
SPY1421F195 short33May 27, 2014Jun 20, 2014($1,564)
SPY1417Q169 long30Apr 8, 2014May 18, 2014($1,491)
SPY1417Q174 short30Apr 8, 2014May 18, 2014$2,619
SPY1417E192 short30Apr 22, 2014May 18, 2014$1,569
SPY1417E197 long30Apr 22, 2014May 18, 2014($201)
SPY1419D191 short29Apr 2, 2014Apr 20, 2014$1,430
SPY1419D196 long29Apr 2, 2014Apr 20, 2014($165)
SPY1422C189 short27Feb 20, 2014Mar 23, 2014$1,304
SPY1422C194 long27Feb 20, 2014Mar 23, 2014($235)
SPY1422N172 short26Jan 24, 2014Feb 23, 2014$2,478
SPY1422N167 long26Jan 24, 2014Feb 23, 2014($1,474)
SPY1321L183 short26Nov 4, 2013Dec 22, 2013$1,360

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.