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Very Aggressive #1 - Started 11/13/07

Forex · Started Nov 2007

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-3.0%
Max Drawdown
67.0%
Trades
32
Win Trades
50.0%
Profit Factor
0.70
Win Months
0.0%

About this strategy






Im trading forex in 2 ways, one way is Very Aggressive (This System) and the other one is Conservative.

What im doing in my personal account is someting like that, i always have 2 accounts, the bigger one is for the Conservative system and i got another one, alot smaller for the Aggressive system.

The target for the Aggressive account is a few Hundreds precent each month, but there is ofcruse a high risk to big drawdown as well because the nature of the system.

So each month im withdrawal the profits from the Aggressive account and starting all over again with the start balance.

This is my way to control all of the emotions related issues with trading.

I got a Conservative account which im building slowly, and another Aggressive one where i can really show my trading abilites.

Its up to you if you choose to join the Aggressive or the Conservative system (or maybe both), just remmber that the Aggressive can make insane profits, but could have big drawdowns as well, so scale your risks.

Good luck to everybody.




Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2007-37.2-14.0-46.0
2008-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.3
20090.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20100.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20110.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began11/13/2007
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age229 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades32
# Profitable16
% Profitable50.0%
Avg trade duration22.7 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown67.0%
drawdown periodNov 18, 2007 - May 27, 2008
Annual Return (Compounded)-3.0%
Avg win$5,501
Avg loss$8,079

Ratios

W:L ratio0.68
Sharpe Ratio-0.25
Sortino Ratio-0.32
Calmar Ratio0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.00
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life415.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-460.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-3.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-2.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity203.4%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$8,079
Avg Win$5,501
# Winners16
Sum Trade PL (losers)$129,270
Sum Trade PL (winners)$88,011
Num Months Winners2
# Losers16
% Winners50.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table227

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1362.43
Avg Position Time (hrs)22.71
Avg Trade Length0.90
Last Trade Ago6858

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0
Treynor Index-16.51

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.05
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.25
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.08
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.03
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-4.18
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.22
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats11.25
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats20.95
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.69
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.04
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.24

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0
SD0.00
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.00
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.00
df66
t0.00
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.83
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.83
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.83
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.83
Sortino ratio0.00
Upside Potential Ratio0.55
Upside part of mean0.00
Downside part of mean-0.00
Upside SD0.00
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms63
N negative terms4
N of observations67
Mean of predictor0.29
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.00
Covariance0
r0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.00
Mean Square Error0
DF error65
t(b)0.71
p(b)0.24
t(a)-0.19
p(a)0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.00
Treynor index (mean / b)0.00
Jensen alpha (a)-0.00
Mean0
SD0.00
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df66
t0
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.83
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.83
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.83
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.83
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0.55
Upside part of mean0.00
Downside part of mean-0.00
Upside SD0.00
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms63
N negative terms4
N of observations67
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.00
Covariance0
r0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.00
Mean Square Error0
DF error65
t(b)0.61
p(b)0.27
t(a)-0.14
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.00
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)-0.00
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
Mean0.06
SD0.36
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.17
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.17
df1469
t0.40
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.00
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.66
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.00
Sortino ratio0.28
Upside Potential Ratio1.36
Upside part of mean0.29
Downside part of mean-0.23
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms1401
N negative terms69
N of observations1470
Mean of predictor0.50
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.67
SD of criterion0.36
Covariance0.04
r0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
Mean Square Error0.13
DF error1468
t(b)5.88
p(b)0.42
t(a)0.13
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.31
Treynor index (mean / b)0.75
Jensen alpha (a)0.02
Mean0
SD0.35
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df1469
t0
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.83
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.83
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.83
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.83
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio1.06
Upside part of mean0.26
Downside part of mean-0.26
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.24
N nonnegative terms1401
N negative terms69
N of observations1470
Mean of predictor0.28
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.66
SD of criterion0.35
Covariance0.03
r0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.12
DF error1468
t(b)5.14
p(b)0.43
t(a)-0.14
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.26
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)-0.02
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.69
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.77
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.41
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.74
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations67
Minimum1.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low1.00
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1470
Minimum0.69
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.52
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low69
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high77
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-59.96
VaR(95%) (moments method)-3.40282346638529e+38
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.79
VaR(95%) (regression method)-1.09
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.00
Maximum0.00
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1
Minimum0.63
Quartile 10.63
Median0.63
Quartile 30.63
Maximum0.63
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-396965440
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)191
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 21 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
GBP/NZD short1000Nov 28, 2007Dec 3, 2007($9,783)
GBP/NZD short1200Nov 23, 2007Nov 26, 2007($14,485)
GBP/JPY long1500Nov 21, 2007Nov 23, 2007($140)
GBP/JPY long400Nov 20, 2007Nov 21, 2007($60)
GBP/NZD short1200Nov 18, 2007Nov 21, 2007($16,270)
GBP/CAD short400Nov 20, 2007Nov 21, 2007($3,001)
GBP/JPY long1200Nov 19, 2007Nov 20, 2007$85
GBP/CAD long400Nov 19, 2007Nov 19, 2007($457)
GBP/JPY long1200Nov 19, 2007Nov 19, 2007($88)
GBP/CAD short400Nov 18, 2007Nov 19, 2007($4,201)
EUR/GBP long600Nov 19, 2007Nov 19, 2007($185)
EUR/USD short600Nov 18, 2007Nov 19, 2007($474)
GBP/JPY long800Nov 19, 2007Nov 19, 2007($54)
GBP/USD long600Nov 19, 2007Nov 19, 2007($3,240)
GBP/USD short500Nov 18, 2007Nov 19, 2007($1,735)
GBP/JPY short800Nov 18, 2007Nov 19, 2007$18
GBP/JPY long800Nov 18, 2007Nov 18, 2007($61)
GBP/NZD short2000Nov 16, 2007Nov 18, 2007$3,570
GBP/JPY long300Nov 16, 2007Nov 18, 2007$17
EUR/GBP long400Nov 16, 2007Nov 16, 2007($578)
EUR/JPY long200Nov 15, 2007Nov 16, 2007$10
EUR/CAD short200Nov 15, 2007Nov 16, 2007$1,272
GBP/CAD short200Nov 15, 2007Nov 16, 2007$2,758
GBP/JPY long200Nov 15, 2007Nov 16, 2007$7
EUR/GBP long400Nov 15, 2007Nov 16, 2007$289
GBP/NZD short200Nov 15, 2007Nov 16, 2007$1,625
GBP/JPY short400Nov 14, 2007Nov 15, 2007$81
GBP/USD short500Nov 14, 2007Nov 15, 2007$10,337
EUR/JPY short400Nov 14, 2007Nov 15, 2007$31
GBP/JPY long400Nov 13, 2007Nov 14, 2007$44

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.