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EXLENCE

Futures · Started Sep 2007

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
13.6%
Max Drawdown
31.3%
Trades
959
Win Trades
40.8%
Profit Factor
1.50
Win Months
8.8%

About this strategy

EXLENCE trades a basket of 27 U.S. futures markets (in currencies, stock indices, energies, metals, financials, grains, softs and meats).

Important Information About This System:

-- The EXLENCE system can have multi-month drawdown (or sideways) periods which may begin or end at any time.
-- The EXLENCE system can have trades with significant open profits that subsequently lose back all of the open profits and possibly turn into losing trades.
-- The EXLENCE system does not scale well for smaller accounts due to the contract sizes and the number of contracts traded.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2007-0.011.1-2.321.632.0
200831.55.2-4.1-0.5-4.3-0.5-3.28.5-6.833.2-12.54.750.2
2009-7.717.61.2-4.637.718.218.2-5.912.026.1-20.5-0.1112.9
201030.7-1.8-23.310.771.028.615.6-8.14.5-0.00.00.0166.1
20110.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began9/23/2007
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age231 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades959
# Profitable391
% Profitable40.8%
Avg trade duration5.3 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown31.3%
drawdown periodFeb 21, 2010 - April 01, 2010
Annual Return (Compounded)13.6%
Avg win$9,181
Avg loss$4,315

Ratios

W:L ratio1.46
Sharpe Ratio0.61
Sortino Ratio1.06
Calmar Ratio0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.07
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life400.6%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)621.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)13.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)14.2%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity5.4%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$4,315
Avg Win$9,181
# Winners391
Sum Trade PL (losers)$2,451,159
Sum Trade PL (winners)$3,589,891
Num Months Winners21
# Losers568
% Winners40.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table229

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)7636.47
Avg Position Time (hrs)127.27
Avg Trade Length5.30
Last Trade Ago5832

Regression

Alpha0.04
Beta-0.06
Treynor Index-0.53

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades3.61
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.36
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats18.73
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats34.13
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.22
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.07
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.28

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.28
SD0.57
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.49
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.49
df97
t1.41
p0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.18
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.20
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.18
Sortino ratio0.80
Upside Potential Ratio1.47
Upside part of mean0.52
Downside part of mean-0.23
Upside SD0.45
Downside SD0.35
N nonnegative terms89
N negative terms9
N of observations98
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.28
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.57
Covariance-0.05
r-0.33
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.75
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.40
Mean Square Error0.29
DF error96
t(b)-3.40
p(b)1.00
t(a)2.08
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.78
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.38
Jensen alpha (a)0.40
Mean0
SD0.97
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df97
t0
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.69
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.69
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.69
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0.49
Upside part of mean0.44
Downside part of mean-0.44
Upside SD0.36
Downside SD0.89
N nonnegative terms89
N negative terms9
N of observations98
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.97
Covariance-0.06
r-0.27
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.14
Mean Square Error0.88
DF error96
t(b)-2.73
p(b)1.00
t(a)0.41
p(a)0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.79
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0.14
VaR(95%)0.37
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.43
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0.64
SD1.04
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.61
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.61
df2151
t1.75
p0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.30
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.07
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.30
Sortino ratio1.02
Upside Potential Ratio3.90
Upside part of mean2.43
Downside part of mean-1.79
Upside SD0.83
Downside SD0.62
N nonnegative terms1798
N negative terms354
N of observations2152
Mean of predictor0.29
Mean of criterion0.64
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion1.04
Covariance-0.17
r-0.35
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.77
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.86
Mean Square Error0.95
DF error2150
t(b)-17.37
p(b)1
t(a)2.53
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.53
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.83
Jensen alpha (a)0.86
Mean0
SD1.28
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df2151
t0
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.68
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.68
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.68
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio1.99
Upside part of mean2.17
Downside part of mean-2.17
Upside SD0.67
Downside SD1.09
N nonnegative terms1798
N negative terms354
N of observations2152
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion1.28
Covariance-0.19
r-0.32
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.86
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.15
Mean Square Error1.47
DF error2150
t(b)-15.53
p(b)1
t(a)0.36
p(a)0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.96
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.75
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.98
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0.15
VaR(95%)0.12
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.15
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.54
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.64
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.34
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.64
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations98
Minimum0.08
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.88
Mean of quarter 10.92
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.17
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low9
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.79
Number of outliers high22
Percentage of outliers high0.22
Mean of outliers high1.19
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.01
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.20
Number of observations2152
Minimum0.08
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.74
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low354
Percentage of outliers low0.16
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high399
Percentage of outliers high0.19
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.71
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.49
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.92
Quartile 10.92
Median0.92
Quartile 30.92
Maximum0.92
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations2
Minimum0.16
Quartile 10.35
Median0.54
Quartile 30.73
Maximum0.92
Mean of quarter 10.16
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.92
Inter Quartile Range0.38
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-422975456
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)39
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 112 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
BP Z0long15Sep 22, 2010Sep 24, 2010$12,630
EU Z0long6Sep 21, 2010Sep 24, 2010$22,752
TY Z0long24Sep 21, 2010Sep 24, 2010$14,448
SF Z0long11Sep 21, 2010Sep 24, 2010$21,912
US Z0long16Sep 21, 2010Sep 24, 2010$12,880
AD Z0long10Sep 9, 2010Sep 24, 2010$36,420
ED U1long83Sep 21, 2010Sep 24, 2010$2,448
QHO V0long11Sep 20, 2010Sep 23, 2010($13,532)
QHG Z0short10Sep 21, 2010Sep 22, 2010($16,830)
JY Z0short17Sep 14, 2010Sep 21, 2010$21,114
CD Z0long27Sep 20, 2010Sep 21, 2010($13,446)
QGC Z0long12Sep 14, 2010Sep 21, 2010$27,024
BO Z0long44Sep 17, 2010Sep 20, 2010$15,752
SB V0long20Sep 7, 2010Sep 20, 2010$78,240
QNG V0long14Sep 13, 2010Sep 20, 2010$2,268
CD Z0long12Sep 10, 2010Sep 17, 2010$3,504
QHO V0long9Sep 7, 2010Sep 16, 2010$9,605
QHG Z0short11Sep 14, 2010Sep 16, 2010($15,625)
ES Z0long26Sep 14, 2010Sep 14, 2010($12,558)
QCL V0long8Sep 13, 2010Sep 14, 2010($12,464)
SM Z0short25Sep 10, 2010Sep 14, 2010$300
S X0short23Sep 14, 2010Sep 14, 2010($15,134)
BP Z0long22Sep 13, 2010Sep 14, 2010($12,826)
TY Z0short15Sep 9, 2010Sep 13, 2010$4,800
ED U1short103Sep 8, 2010Sep 13, 2010$14,628
CD U0long12Sep 8, 2010Sep 10, 2010($1,536)
JY Z0long11Sep 9, 2010Sep 9, 2010($3,801)
JY U0long11Sep 7, 2010Sep 9, 2010($9,163)
AD U0long10Sep 8, 2010Sep 9, 2010$3,720
LH V0short23Sep 7, 2010Sep 9, 2010($15,364)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.