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Forex · Started Jun 2007

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
1.3%
Max Drawdown
48.0%
Trades
182
Win Trades
47.3%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
2.6%

About this strategy










It does NOT generate 100s of signals each day and plays are generally low risk. So it should be easy to keep up with the system. Positions are normally held for at least a few hours and sometimes a few days. Its not a long term system though. Short to medium term is what we aim at. Profitable carry trades could be exceptions.
Also, all the signals generated here are placed in my real money account. All the trades I place in my broker account are placed here. So you can be sure that all the trades are placed with due diligence and I wont be swinging left and right if there is no clear opportunity.
I will post discretionary trades based on my fundamental and technical analysis. So the trades youll see here are combination of both.
All the trades are limit orders with stoploss and targets that vary for each trade. Trades are generally mailed well in advance so it is easy to trade this system manually.
Feel free to ask questions.
Kaustubh
www.nofussforex.com






Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2007-1.3-7.758.426.916.4-18.3-5.464.8
2008-7.232.5-7.72.5-8.8-11.3-3.93.4-14.6-1.0-1.0-1.0-22.5
20090.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20100.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.0-0.0-0.0
20110.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began6/6/2007
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age235 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades182
# Profitable86
% Profitable47.3%
Avg trade duration2.6 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown48.0%
drawdown periodOct 11, 2007 - Dec 27, 2008
Annual Return (Compounded)1.3%
Avg win$610
Avg loss$480

Ratios

W:L ratio1.14
Sharpe Ratio0.01
Sortino Ratio0.02
Calmar Ratio0.14

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life403.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-376.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)1.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)2.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity92.4%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated3.3%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$480
Avg Win$610
# Winners86
Sum Trade PL (losers)$46,112
Sum Trade PL (winners)$52,487
Num Months Winners8
# Losers96
% Winners47.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table232

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)3735.62
Avg Position Time (hrs)62.26
Avg Trade Length2.60
Last Trade Ago6569

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-0.01
Treynor Index-0.10

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades21.12
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.34
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats6.51
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats13.08
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.32
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.04
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.05

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.12
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.39
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.39
df72
t0.97
p0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.19
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.41
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.19
Sortino ratio1.27
Upside Potential Ratio2.17
Upside part of mean0.20
Downside part of mean-0.08
Upside SD0.28
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms63
N negative terms10
N of observations73
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance0.01
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.09
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error71
t(b)1.05
p(b)0.15
t(a)0.73
p(a)0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.33
Treynor index (mean / b)0.82
Jensen alpha (a)0.09
Mean0.08
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.32
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.32
df72
t0.79
p0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.12
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.48
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.12
Sortino ratio0.82
Upside Potential Ratio1.71
Upside part of mean0.17
Downside part of mean-0.09
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms63
N negative terms10
N of observations73
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.08
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance0.01
r0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.16
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error71
t(b)1.38
p(b)0.09
t(a)0.54
p(a)0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.26
Treynor index (mean / b)0.51
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.13
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.30
SD0.74
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.40
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.40
df1613
t0.99
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.19
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.39
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.19
Sortino ratio0.85
Upside Potential Ratio3.55
Upside part of mean1.24
Downside part of mean-0.95
Upside SD0.65
Downside SD0.35
N nonnegative terms1443
N negative terms171
N of observations1614
Mean of predictor0.39
Mean of criterion0.30
SD of predictor0.59
SD of criterion0.74
Covariance0.08
r0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.21
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.21
Mean Square Error0.53
DF error1612
t(b)6.98
p(b)0.41
t(a)0.72
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.79
Treynor index (mean / b)1.39
Jensen alpha (a)0.21
Mean0.08
SD0.65
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.12
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.12
df1613
t0.31
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.91
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.67
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.91
Sortino ratio0.18
Upside Potential Ratio2.47
Upside part of mean1.11
Downside part of mean-1.03
Upside SD0.46
Downside SD0.45
N nonnegative terms1443
N negative terms171
N of observations1614
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion0.08
SD of predictor0.58
SD of criterion0.65
Covariance0.07
r0.20
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.22
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.40
DF error1612
t(b)8.00
p(b)0.40
t(a)0.13
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.53
Treynor index (mean / b)0.37
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.77
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.67
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.54
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.66
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations73
Minimum0.83
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.48
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.07
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low10
Percentage of outliers low0.14
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high10
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-6.44
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.05
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.10
Number of observations1614
Minimum0.41
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum2.42
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low171
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high180
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.16
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.20
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.08
Median0.15
Quartile 30.22
Maximum0.30
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.30
Inter Quartile Range0.15
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations2
Minimum0.34
Quartile 10.41
Median0.47
Quartile 30.54
Maximum0.61
Mean of quarter 10.34
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.61
Inter Quartile Range0.13
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-370838432
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)443
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.10
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.08
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.29
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.29
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.63
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.10
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.08
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.14
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.14
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.06
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 171 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
USD/CHF short40Sep 17, 2008Sep 19, 2008($957)
GBP/JPY short30Sep 14, 2008Sep 15, 2008$1
EUR/USD long30Sep 15, 2008Sep 15, 2008($379)
USD/CHF long40Sep 2, 2008Sep 12, 2008$1,064
GBP/JPY long60Sep 7, 2008Sep 8, 2008($4)
EUR/USD short30Sep 4, 2008Sep 7, 2008($350)
GBP/JPY short30Sep 4, 2008Sep 4, 2008($5)
GBP/JPY long20Sep 1, 2008Sep 1, 2008($2)
GBP/JPY long40Aug 27, 2008Aug 27, 2008($3)
GBP/JPY long40Aug 26, 2008Aug 27, 2008($2)
USD/CAD long30Aug 26, 2008Aug 26, 2008($8)
GBP/JPY short40Aug 25, 2008Aug 26, 2008$1
GBP/USD short40Aug 22, 2008Aug 26, 2008$309
GBP/JPY short30Aug 25, 2008Aug 25, 2008($0)
GBP/JPY short60Aug 14, 2008Aug 22, 2008$4
EUR/USD short50Aug 14, 2008Aug 18, 2008$333
EUR/USD long40Aug 12, 2008Aug 14, 2008$158
AUD/USD short50Aug 7, 2008Aug 11, 2008$600
AUD/USD long50Aug 3, 2008Aug 4, 2008($185)
USD/CAD short80Jul 31, 2008Aug 1, 2008($284)
AUD/USD long40Jul 28, 2008Jul 29, 2008($412)
USD/CHF short50Jul 25, 2008Jul 29, 2008($479)
EUR/JPY short50Jul 21, 2008Jul 25, 2008$6
EUR/USD long50Jul 16, 2008Jul 22, 2008$55
GBP/JPY short50Jul 17, 2008Jul 18, 2008($3)
GBP/JPY short50Jul 17, 2008Jul 17, 2008($4)
GBP/USD short80Jul 13, 2008Jul 14, 2008($426)
USD/JPY short50Jul 9, 2008Jul 11, 2008$4
GBP/USD long80Jul 10, 2008Jul 11, 2008$418
AUD/USD long50Jul 9, 2008Jul 11, 2008$196

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.