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JW Index Trading V.18

Options · Started Apr 2007

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-6.6%
Max Drawdown
78.8%
Trades
28
Win Trades
57.1%
Profit Factor
0.40
Win Months
2.1%

About this strategy

...Overview...

1. Fees: IT IS FREE. I might change the fee structure in the future but in that case you will receive plenty of notices ahead of the adjustment.
2. Any experienced trader can tell the real treasure in this system is not the trading of options itself but the analysis on the underlying assets: the whole equity market. So if our system starts buying calls you can also look at futures, ETFs, or even stocks that correlates strongly with the general market. But then please determine and control your own risk/reward carefully when use other trading instruments.
3. I cant tell you what your risk tolerance level is. So please, if you dont feel comfortable with our trading size please scale down before thinking our system is too risky for your taste.

Now on to the good stuff. About 99% of all trades are executed at near market close which is 4:15PM ET for index options (personally I execute my trades at 4:05pm to 4:12pm.) Although signals are sent out immediately, C2 only executes these orders in the next morning. So more often than not, the actual trading results are better due to better execution price before it gaps up in the next opening. Only when the signal changed at the absolute last moment would cause our model to open/close our position in the next morning. The signals are free at the moment until further notice.

With the core idea of relative value investing and capital movement strategy, JW Index Trading model was able to analyze the market movements and identify discrepancies and opportunities with satisfactory accuracy. Average holding period typically is less than one week, and with no more than 4 positions running at once. Currently we focus on buying index call options or futures with 5% to 8% of overall trading capital per trade to benefit from such opportunity and to limit the downside risk. With options, due to the fact that only a portion of the capital is committed to any single trade, there will be NO stop-loss being employed. Therefore, one must strickly limit the capital exposure per trade. As a general rule, our model uses 5% capital per trade for OEX options and anywhere from 6% to 8% of the overall capital per trade for SPY or DIA options. Although at times due to the low delta/high price we will be devoting as high as 13% of the capital per trade to meet our internal performance objective, it is NOT recommanded to commit more than 8% of the overall capital to any single trade. An investor who has a lower risk appetite might want to decrease the amount per trade to further limit the losses. Bottom line you should carefully determine your own risk tolerance level while using this system.

Again, almost all of the trades are executed at near market close to reflect end-of-day data. Sometimes late signal can cause the model to trade at the opening of the next morning. Signals are usually send out about 8 to 10 minutes before option market closes. Please also note that index options trades until 4:15PM ET.



Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2007-0.012.03.26.7-7.4-5.34.5-11.911.711.4
2008-76.3-0.1-0.1-0.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-76.4
20090.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20100.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20110.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/12/2007
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age236 months
What it tradesOptions
# Trades28
# Profitable16
% Profitable57.1%
Avg trade duration3.6 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown78.8%
drawdown periodJuly 13, 2007 - April 06, 2008
Annual Return (Compounded)-6.6%
Avg win$3,369
Avg loss$10,447

Ratios

W:L ratio0.43
Sharpe Ratio-0.44
Sortino Ratio-0.45
Calmar Ratio-0.24

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.05
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life427.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-502.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-6.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-6.2%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity372.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.2%
Percent Trades Options0.8%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$10,447
Avg Win$3,369
# Winners16
Sum Trade PL (losers)$125,368
Sum Trade PL (winners)$53,898
Num Months Winners5
# Losers12
% Winners57.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table234

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)5198.07
Avg Position Time (hrs)86.63
Avg Trade Length3.60
Last Trade Ago6809

Regression

Alpha-0.02
Beta0.04
Treynor Index-0.53

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.15
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.05
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.30
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-1.89
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.27
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats25.82
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats27.31
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.36
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.14
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.53

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.11
SD0.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.35
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.35
df71
t-0.86
p0.80
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.45
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.15
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.45
Sortino ratio-0.36
Upside Potential Ratio0.15
Upside part of mean0.05
Downside part of mean-0.16
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.30
N nonnegative terms68
N negative terms4
N of observations72
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion-0.11
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.31
Covariance0.01
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.14
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error70
t(b)0.97
p(b)0.17
t(a)-1.06
p(a)0.85
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.12
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.78
Jensen alpha (a)-0.14
Mean-0.21
SD0.54
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.39
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.38
df71
t-0.94
p0.83
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.42
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.18
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.42
Sortino ratio-0.39
Upside Potential Ratio0.08
Upside part of mean0.04
Downside part of mean-0.25
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.54
N nonnegative terms68
N negative terms4
N of observations72
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion-0.21
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.54
Covariance0.02
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.23
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.25
Mean Square Error0.29
DF error70
t(b)0.93
p(b)0.18
t(a)-1.09
p(a)0.86
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.71
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.20
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.92
Jensen alpha (a)-0.25
VaR(95%)0.24
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.29
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean5.53
SD4.77
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.16
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.16
df1585
t2.85
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.96
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.36
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.96
Sortino ratio4.36
Upside Potential Ratio6.28
Upside part of mean7.97
Downside part of mean-2.44
Upside SD4.61
Downside SD1.27
N nonnegative terms1530
N negative terms56
N of observations1586
Mean of predictor0.41
Mean of criterion5.53
SD of predictor0.61
SD of criterion4.77
Covariance0.79
r0.27
b (slope, estimate of beta)2.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)4.66
Mean Square Error21.07
DF error1584
t(b)11.30
p(b)0.36
t(a)2.49
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.77
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.99
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha8.32
Treynor index (mean / b)2.59
Jensen alpha (a)4.66
Mean-0.21
SD3.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.07
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.07
df1585
t-0.16
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.73
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.86
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.73
Sortino ratio-0.09
Upside Potential Ratio1.76
Upside part of mean3.95
Downside part of mean-4.16
Upside SD2.22
Downside SD2.25
N nonnegative terms1530
N negative terms56
N of observations1586
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion-0.21
SD of predictor0.61
SD of criterion3.16
Covariance0.59
r0.31
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.62
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.57
Mean Square Error9.04
DF error1584
t(b)12.99
p(b)0.34
t(a)-0.47
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.87
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.97
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.82
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.13
Jensen alpha (a)-0.57
VaR(95%)0.28
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.33
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.88
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.86
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.54
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.80
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations72
Minimum0.27
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.77
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.77
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1586
Minimum0.25
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum3.97
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.12
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low56
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.74
Number of outliers high67
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.72
Extreme Value Index (moments method)2.59
VaR(95%) (moments method)-0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.76
Quartile 10.76
Median0.76
Quartile 30.76
Maximum0.76
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations3
Minimum0.11
Quartile 10.14
Median0.17
Quartile 30.47
Maximum0.77
Mean of quarter 10.11
Mean of quarter 20.17
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.77
Inter Quartile Range0.33
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-396949856
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)268
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.12
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.19
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.25
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.66
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.12
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.19
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.24
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.24
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.57
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 4 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ES H8long11Jan 7, 2008Jan 21, 2008($84,901)
ES H8long10Dec 19, 2007Dec 21, 2007$8,920
ES H8long5Dec 17, 2007Dec 18, 2007$2,898
ES Z7long5Nov 19, 2007Nov 23, 2007($1,540)
DAWKZ long24Nov 8, 2007Nov 12, 2007($5,578)
DAWKX long24Nov 9, 2007Nov 12, 2007($1,882)
DAWKC long25Nov 6, 2007Nov 7, 2007($5,610)
SFBKQ long24Nov 6, 2007Nov 6, 2007$1,286
SFBKR long25Oct 24, 2007Oct 29, 2007$3,840
DAWKB long25Oct 19, 2007Oct 24, 2007$715
SYHKU long48Oct 16, 2007Oct 19, 2007($3,067)
DAZJH long29Oct 11, 2007Oct 15, 2007($1,404)
DAZJG long29Oct 5, 2007Oct 9, 2007$684
SFBJS long25Sep 28, 2007Oct 8, 2007$3,465
BQQIY long24Sep 6, 2007Sep 10, 2007($2,194)
BQQIY long23Sep 4, 2007Sep 10, 2007($3,022)
BQQIV long41Aug 16, 2007Aug 22, 2007$5,193
BQQIW long24Aug 20, 2007Aug 22, 2007$206
DAWHY long31Aug 13, 2007Aug 15, 2007($9,498)
DAWHA long27Aug 7, 2007Aug 9, 2007$1,582
SFBHP long36Jul 27, 2007Aug 3, 2007($6,170)
DAWHZ long25Jul 31, 2007Aug 3, 2007($1,035)
SFBGS long28Jul 12, 2007Jul 13, 2007$4,721
DAWGA long30Jun 28, 2007Jul 3, 2007$3,258
SFBGQ long36Jun 27, 2007Jun 29, 2007$4,270
JBGFQ long72May 14, 2007May 18, 2007$6,907
JBGFR long24May 17, 2007May 18, 2007$1,958
SFBER long30May 11, 2007May 17, 2007$3,258

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.