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SoftsHedge

Futures · Started Feb 2007

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
7.1%
Max Drawdown
4.6%
Trades
464
Win Trades
44.6%
Profit Factor
2
Win Months
2.5%

About this strategy

Note that unlike most systems listed on C2 who have to trade 10-50+ contracts for each trade to post their gains, we are only trading 1 futures contract per commodity to achieve our profits. That means we are ONLY using $4,165 in margin during our daily trading sessions out of our simulated $100,000 C2 account. Yet, we are still among the top performers on C2 and are beating the S&P returns of $100,000, fully invested, with minimal drawdown and risk. The SoftsHedge Daily Trading Recommendation Service was developed with the assumption that the market can do virtually ANYTHING on ANY GIVEN DAY...and that NO ONE (not even the "experts") can predict the future. My grandfather had a favorite saying: "If I knew where I was going to die, I wouldnt go there," and, in a sense, this is the overriding philosophy upon which this system is modeled. The Softs futures contracts we will be recommending are: Cotton #2, Orange Juice, Coffee, Sugar #11, and Cocoa (we will not be trading the Softs futures contracts of Lumber and Sugar #14 since they are too thinly traded to get good fills). After midnight CST each night, but before the Softs futures main trading session opens beginning at 8:00 AM EST, we will email recommendations to enter two contrary futures Stop orders: to both Buy AND Sell the nearby month Softs futures contracts at different levels. Signals should be entered as close to recommendation time as possible, or at least by the Softs futures main trading session opens beginning at 8:00 AM EST. All open positions or pending orders should be closed 5 minutes before the Softs futures main trading session closes to make sure we exit all trades by the end of the day. On days when we will be closed and not posting trades, we will notify you well in advance. We will also notify you when the current contract months expire and we will be switching to the new near month contracts. The obvious question is: If the orders are contrary, dont the profits/losses cancel one-another? The answer is that the Softs futures markets are some of the MOST DIRECTIONAL (per day) and have some of the MOST CONSTANT VOLATILITIES that we have found among all the futures instruments. On the vast majority of days, only one of the orders (Buy OR Sell) will trigger, and the other order will not. Additionally, the orders triggered to enter are at a certain level away from the Open. The unique feature of the system lies in exactly where these levels are placed. The levels at which we enter each side have been determined by a series of complex mathematical algorithms that have been determined based on statistics of how each of the Softs futures have traded within the previous 20-day period. These levels change on a daily basis. The other essential feature which we made mandatory for the system is that it be LOW MAINTENANCE, meaning one should be able to enter the trades easily at the market open and not have to worry or touch them until the end of the day when it comes time to close open positions and pending orders. THE BOTTOM LINE OF WHAT TO EXPECT FROM PERFORMANCE: With this system, we are not trying to get rich quick. We are looking to make a MODEST OVERALL DAILY PROFIT, on a CONSISTENT DAILY BASIS, with LOW OVERALL DRAWDOWN. As profits grow, you are welcome to increase the number of positions you trade in order to pyramid profits, but ONLY if you have a comfortable balance to support this with proper money management, which is also key. Most futures brokers require the margin minimums ($1,260 per Cotton #2 futures contract and $900 to maintain a position, once entered; $2,240 per Orange Juice futures contract and $1,600 to maintain a position, once entered; $2,520 per Coffee futures contract and $1,800 to maintain a position, once entered; $1,190 per Sugar #11 futures contract and $850 to maintain a position, once entered; and $1,120 per Cocoa futures contract and $800 to maintain a position, once entered). Some brokerage houses require only half the margin minimums if positions are not held overnight; ours are not. Additionally, since we place two opposing orders, the margin requirements at the time the pending orders are placed is nearly $0, but since one side (Long OR Short) is usually taken on a given day, we recommend you should have at least the margin minimums ($8,330 per all 5 Softs futures contracts) plus at least $6,000 per all 5 Softs futures contracts traded to allow for maximum drawdown over a few days so you will not be "out of the game" if/when this occurs = at LEAST $14,330 recommended in your account to trade 1 contract lots. Most days achieve a modest profit of ~$100-$600 (but occasionally much more) in the collective 5 Softs futures contracts. On days in which the market moves very little (no weather reports, news, or events), no trades trigger, and our pending orders automatically expire. The worst possibility on a given day is one in which the market moves and triggers a Long or Short trade, reverses hard, and also triggers the opposing Long or Short trade. This happens relatively rarely, and in this case, we will have to absorb a loss equal ONLY to the spread between the opposing trades (usually ~$300-$600 per Softs future contract). In the world of futures trading, this is a relatively minor loss during a very volatile trading environment. The system has proven to be very profitable with very low drawdown in historical trading for all the back years tested (typically generating $35,000-$40,000 per all 5 Softs futures contracts, per year, excluding commissions) as well as in real trading in 2006 and so far in 2007. We invite you to enjoy the recommendations and to paper trade the system yourself to understand its potential. If you like the service, we welcome you to join our family of paid subscribers. We believe you will be able to cover our modest monthly fee with your average daily profit within a few days each month. Happy trading!

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20072.11.94.70.31.219.90.00.00.00.00.032.5
20080.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20090.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.0-0.0
20100.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.0
20110.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/12/2007
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age238 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades464
# Profitable207
% Profitable44.6%
Avg trade duration3.9 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown4.6%
drawdown periodJune 26, 2007 - June 27, 2007
Annual return (compounded)1.8%
Avg win$419
Avg loss$171

Ratios

W:L ratio1.97
Sharpe Ratio-0.19
Sortino Ratio-0.49
Calmar Ratio0.18

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life432.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)24.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)7.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)1.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$171
Avg Win$419
# Winners207
Sum Trade PL (losers)$44,002
Sum Trade PL (winners)$86,645
Num Months Winners9
# Losers257
% Winners44.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table236

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)233.75
Avg Position Time (hrs)3.90
Avg Trade Length0.20
Last Trade Ago6994

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0
Treynor Index0.68

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades2.14
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.55
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats18.84
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats18.36
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.26
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.13
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.46

RATIO STATISTICS

a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Max Equity Drawdown (num days)1
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

Trading record

Placed 372 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
CT V7long16Jun 29, 2007Jul 13, 2007$22,732
SB V7long1Jul 13, 2007Jul 13, 2007($109)
CC U7short1Jul 13, 2007Jul 13, 2007($88)
KC U7long1Jul 13, 2007Jul 13, 2007($196)
CC U7long1Jul 12, 2007Jul 12, 2007$122
KC U7short1Jul 12, 2007Jul 12, 2007($196)
OJ U7long1Jul 11, 2007Jul 11, 2007$90
SB V7short1Jul 11, 2007Jul 11, 2007($75)
KC U7short1Jul 11, 2007Jul 11, 2007($102)
CC U7short1Jul 11, 2007Jul 11, 2007($148)
OJ U7short1Jul 10, 2007Jul 10, 2007($428)
KC U7long1Jul 10, 2007Jul 10, 2007$423
SB V7long1Jul 10, 2007Jul 10, 2007($176)
CC U7short1Jul 10, 2007Jul 10, 2007($88)
OJ U7short1Jul 9, 2007Jul 9, 2007$292
SB V7long1Jul 9, 2007Jul 9, 2007($53)
CC U7short1Jul 9, 2007Jul 9, 2007$172
KC U7long1Jul 9, 2007Jul 9, 2007($233)
OJ U7long1Jul 6, 2007Jul 6, 2007$30
CC U7short1Jul 6, 2007Jul 6, 2007$92
SB V7long1Jul 6, 2007Jul 6, 2007($210)
KC U7long1Jul 5, 2007Jul 6, 2007($196)
SB V7long1Jul 3, 2007Jul 3, 2007$26
KC U7long1Jul 3, 2007Jul 3, 2007($196)
CC U7short1Jul 3, 2007Jul 3, 2007($108)
SB V7short1Jul 2, 2007Jul 2, 2007$238
OJ U7long1Jul 2, 2007Jul 2, 2007($308)
KC U7short1Jul 2, 2007Jul 2, 2007($346)
CC U7long1Jul 2, 2007Jul 2, 2007($128)
SB V7short1Jun 29, 2007Jun 29, 2007$26

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.