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JYDRA CHEW NASDAQ100

Futures · Started Jan 2007

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-15.7%
Max Drawdown
86.9%
Trades
38
Win Trades
52.6%
Profit Factor
0.60
Win Months
3.0%

About this strategy





IMPORTANT INFORMATION:
After resetting to zero subscribers at the beginning of the August drawdown, we decided to post some discretionary signals just in the middle of the turmoil: our fault, results were disastrous.
So results on C2 site are not true for the August-September period. Real system signals are tracked from November, 1 2006 by a primary institutional broker in London, feel free to email me if you want more information: pgeronazzo@hf-finance.biz
We are now offering the system signals for free untill we recover and build up a good track record again.
Thanks.

SYSTEM DESCRIPTION
Our research demonstrated existence of exploitable inefficiency pockets during NASDAQ 100 future swings. According to our research, system was designed for a limited end of day trading, both long and short.

Buy/sell signals are generated at end of day as limit order entry, for the next trading session. Orders are for regular pit session, but our testing showed that profit is slightly increased if orders were kept during GLOBEX session too. If you trade size is small, you can enter GTC orders with your broker and try to get filled on overnight session.
Stop loss and take profit levels are generated once the position is opened. On average orders were filled 1.3 times a week, and trades last for about 2.3 days. Due to equity market upside bias, long signals are far more frequent than short one.

System is not optimized on profit, parameters are choosen with robustness in mind. Testing period is all the NASDAQ 100 Future history, about 10 years. Please send an email to pgeronazzo@hf-finance.biz if you want to look at the backtested results.

You should be patient trading this system, as it trades a little more than once a week, on average, but we think it would turn out to be very profitable and stable.
As a matter of fact, for most trading system frequent trades rarely match with frequent profit, for long time.
Please send me an email at pgeronazzo@hf-finance.biz if you need more information on this system.

Paolo Geronazzo
HF Finance
Switzerland









Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2007-1.06.218.25.814.25.8-5.9-20.8-16.113.6-45.52.3-37.1
2008-65.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-65.6
20090.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20100.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20110.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/22/2007
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age239 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades38
# Profitable20
% Profitable52.6%
Avg trade duration2.4 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown86.9%
drawdown periodJuly 19, 2007 - Jan 09, 2008
Annual Return (Compounded)-15.7%
Avg win$6,385
Avg loss$11,309

Ratios

W:L ratio0.63
Sharpe Ratio-0.50
Sortino Ratio-0.56
Calmar Ratio-0.26

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life436.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-125.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-15.7%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-7.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity655.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$11,309
Avg Win$6,385
# Winners20
Sum Trade PL (losers)$203,555
Sum Trade PL (winners)$127,700
Num Months Winners7
# Losers18
% Winners52.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table237

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)3514.93
Avg Position Time (hrs)58.58
Avg Trade Length2.40
Last Trade Ago6815

Regression

Alpha-0.02
Beta0.01
Treynor Index-2.24

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.11
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.41
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.19
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.03
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-3.33
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.79
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats32.84
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats11.95
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.52
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.26
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.30

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.14
SD0.35
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.40
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.40
df74
t-1.00
p0.84
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.39
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.18
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.39
Sortino ratio-0.42
Upside Potential Ratio0.31
Upside part of mean0.10
Downside part of mean-0.24
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.33
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms67
N of observations75
Mean of predictor0.07
Mean of criterion-0.14
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.35
Covariance0.01
r0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.29
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.16
Mean Square Error0.12
DF error73
t(b)1.40
p(b)0.08
t(a)-1.14
p(a)0.87
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.71
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.12
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.48
Jensen alpha (a)-0.16
Mean-0.24
SD0.49
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.48
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.47
df74
t-1.20
p0.88
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.31
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.26
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.31
Sortino ratio-0.49
Upside Potential Ratio0.20
Upside part of mean0.10
Downside part of mean-0.33
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.48
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms67
N of observations75
Mean of predictor0.05
Mean of criterion-0.24
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.49
Covariance0.02
r0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.40
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.26
Mean Square Error0.24
DF error73
t(b)1.41
p(b)0.08
t(a)-1.30
p(a)0.90
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.98
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.59
Jensen alpha (a)-0.26
VaR(95%)0.22
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.27
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.15
Mean-0.20
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.81
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.81
df2159
t-2.03
p0.98
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.03
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.59
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.03
Sortino ratio-0.93
Upside Potential Ratio1.20
Upside part of mean0.26
Downside part of mean-0.47
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms60
N negative terms2100
N of observations2160
Mean of predictor0.08
Mean of criterion-0.20
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.03
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error2158
t(b)1.10
p(b)0.14
t(a)-2.05
p(a)0.98
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Treynor index (mean / b)-8.77
Jensen alpha (a)-0.20
Mean-0.24
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.89
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.89
df2159
t-2.23
p0.99
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.11
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.67
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.11
Sortino ratio-0.99
Upside Potential Ratio1.07
Upside part of mean0.26
Downside part of mean-0.49
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.24
N nonnegative terms60
N negative terms2100
N of observations2160
Mean of predictor0.05
Mean of criterion-0.24
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.24
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error2158
t(b)1.09
p(b)0.14
t(a)-2.25
p(a)0.99
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-9.66
Jensen alpha (a)-0.24
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.01
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-18.55
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms172
N of observations172
Mean of predictor-0.00
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.01
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-3.15763010599649e+16
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-3.14375993861079e+16
df171
t-2.23277998051164e+16
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.47694997228749e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.81057999810724e+16
Sortino ratio-18.55
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms172
N of observations172
Mean of predictor-0.02
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0
DF error170
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-2.22620996903895e+16
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Treynor index (mean / b)-9.08832035702247e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations75
Minimum0.37
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.18
Mean of quarter 10.92
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.63
Number of outliers high8
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.71
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.45
Number of observations2160
Minimum0.77
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.17
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low70
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high60
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.24
VaR(95%) (moments method)-0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.18
VaR(95%) (regression method)-0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations172
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.85
Quartile 10.85
Median0.85
Quartile 30.85
Maximum0.85
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations10
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.85
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.34
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high0.85
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.91
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.34
Expected Shortfall (moments method)4.34
Extreme Value Index (regression method)3.05
VaR(95%) (regression method)1.57
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)174
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.12
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.20
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.24
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.76
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.12
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.20
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.24
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.59
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-6.82
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ND H8long2Jan 3, 2008Jan 9, 2008($26,866)
ND H8long4Dec 28, 2007Jan 2, 2008($17,132)
ND H8long2Dec 18, 2007Dec 20, 2007$4,184
ND Z7long2Nov 8, 2007Nov 26, 2007($28,266)
ND Z7long3Nov 7, 2007Nov 8, 2007($22,974)
ND Z7short3Oct 30, 2007Oct 31, 2007$3,576
ND Z7long4Oct 25, 2007Oct 30, 2007$13,168
ND Z7long2Oct 22, 2007Oct 25, 2007$10,384
ND Z7short8Oct 8, 2007Oct 11, 2007($16,264)
ND Z7short3Oct 1, 2007Oct 3, 2007$2,826
ND Z7short3Sep 27, 2007Sep 28, 2007$3,126
ND U7long3Sep 4, 2007Sep 7, 2007($19,074)
ND U7short3Sep 4, 2007Sep 4, 2007($3,024)
ND U7short3Aug 30, 2007Aug 30, 2007($1,149)
NQ U7short15Aug 28, 2007Aug 30, 2007($12,795)
ND U7long6Aug 15, 2007Aug 16, 2007($18,123)
ND U7short3Aug 14, 2007Aug 15, 2007$7,701
ND U7long6Aug 9, 2007Aug 14, 2007($3,273)
ND U7long3Jul 31, 2007Jul 31, 2007($3,174)
ND U7long3Jul 26, 2007Jul 27, 2007($13,824)
ND U7long3Jul 18, 2007Jul 19, 2007$7,926
ND U7short3Jul 17, 2007Jul 18, 2007$3,201
ND U7short3Jul 12, 2007Jul 13, 2007($9,999)
ND U7short3Jul 6, 2007Jul 10, 2007$3,426
ND U7long5Jun 26, 2007Jun 28, 2007$12,860
ND U7long6Jun 11, 2007Jun 13, 2007($948)
NQ U7long6Jun 11, 2007Jun 11, 2007($78)
ND M7long6Jun 5, 2007Jun 11, 2007($6,273)
ND M7short3May 31, 2007Jun 4, 2007$2,751
ND M7long5May 15, 2007May 17, 2007$10,460

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.