MK BC V2.0 Futures II
- hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
- 3.3%
- Max Drawdown
- 21.7%
- Trades
- 147
- Win Trades
- 31.3%
- Profit Factor
- 1.70
- Win Months
- 4.6%
About this strategy
!!! SYSTEM IS NOT SUPPORTED ON C2 SINCE 07/01/2007 --- every position open after this date was left un-closed since I did not pay the listing fee for an additional six months. All subscribers had been informed in advance !!!
RISK DISCLOSURE: THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITIES CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE THAT IS OFTEN OBTAINABLE IN COMMODITY TRADING CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. THE USE OF LEVERAGE CAN LEAD TO LARGE LOSSES AS WELL AS GAINS.
THIS IS NO TRADING ADVISE. ALSO THERE IS NO GUARANTEE OF PROFITS. DO NOT TRADE WITH FUNDS THAT YOU CAN NOT AFFORD TO LOSE. TRADE WITH RISK CAPITAL ONLY. ALSO ALWAYS EXERCISE DUE DILLIGENCE WHEN TRADING IN ANY MARKETS. BY SUBSCRIBING TO THE SERVICE YOU ACKNOWLEDGE YOUR UNDERSTANDING OF THE ABOVE STATEMENT. YOU ALSO ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THE PROVIDER OF THIS SERVICE, C2 OR ANY ASSOCIATED PERSONS WITH THESE ENTITIES ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY FINANCIAL LOSSES THAT YOU MAY INCUR BY TRADING.
###########################################################################################
########################################## General ###########################################
###########################################################################################
The logic behind MK BC is a proprietary fractal based approach combined with a strict risk-control --- there will never be any trade without an initial stop loss relatively tight in comparison to the target zones. The size of a position is variable and adjusted to the initial risk and the success probability of the trade.
Different financial-, equity-, commodity- (hard and soft) and currency-contracts will be traded. In backtesting (from 1980:1 until 2005:12) the Profit Factor for the backtesting results was 2.71 and a k-ratio of 9.5, what indicates a smooth and stable equity curve.
V2.0 means that the money management and position sizing algorithm has been improved noticeable in comparison to Version 1, which was used for in-house testing only. The result of this change is a stable trading system which is now used in real trading and which will (hopefully) generate a smooth equity curve.
In backtesting the maximum draw down was 25 percent on a trade-close-to-trade-close-basis. As you can see there is a draw down of approximately 15 percent from January 24th to of 29th of January 2007. But please be aware that C2 calculates draw downs on a daily basis, which discriminates swing trading systems as MK BC V2.0 Futures II in comparison to day trading systems.
For day trading systems the daily calculated draw down IS on a trade-close-to-trade-close-basis, but for swing trading system it is not. To clarify this imagine the following situation: A swing trading system enters a trade in a stock at $100. Used account size is also $100, so we buy one share. As the system uses no stop loss the capital risk is exactly $100. Over the next days the stock price goes up to $500, also does the equity curve. But thereafter the stock plunged rapidly back to $100, where the system sells at break even. The equity curve and C2 now state a draw down of $400. What might be an important information to intended subscribers, because they need to know how much money they have to assign to the system to withstand draw down phases. And it seems that you will need $400 in minimum, as the system has a historical draw down of $400. But this is obviously wrong, because you can trade the system with just $100 and achieve exactly the same results as the system vendor. Why does this methodology discriminates swing trading systems in comparison to day trading systems? Because it shows losses of book gains in swing trading systems, but does not in day trading systems. In the latter ones you will see an equity curve of $100 at the day before the trade and you will also see a curve, which shows $100 the day after the trade is closed. But you will not see a
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | -0.3 | -0.3 | |||||||||||
| 2007 | 46.4 | 32.4 | -10.3 | -9.7 | 16.4 | 1.3 | -2.9 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 91.0 |
| 2008 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2009 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2010 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 |
| 2011 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2012 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2013 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2014 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| 2015 | 0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 2016 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 2017 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2018 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2019 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2020 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2021 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2022 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2023 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2024 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Statistics
Overview
| Strategy began | 12/27/2006 |
|---|---|
| Suggested Minimum Capital | $100,000 |
| Age | 240 months |
| What it trades | Futures |
| # Trades | 147 |
| # Profitable | 46 |
| % Profitable | 31.3% |
| Avg trade duration | 6.2 days |
| Max peak-to-valley drawdown | 21.7% |
| drawdown period | Feb 23, 2007 - May 02, 2007 |
| Annual Return (Compounded) | 3.3% |
| Avg win | $5,186 |
| Avg loss | $1,360 |
Ratios
| W:L ratio | 1.74 |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.18 |
| Sortino Ratio | 0.33 |
| Calmar Ratio | 0.06 |
CORRELATION STATISTICS
| Correlation to SP500 | 0.01 |
|---|---|
| Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life | 435.3% |
| Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu) | -345.4% |
Return Statistics
| Ann Return (w trading costs) | 3.3% |
|---|---|
| Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant) | 0.0% |
| Return Pcnt Since TOS Status | 0.0% |
| Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees) | 3.6% |
Slump
| Current Slump as Pcnt Equity | 4.3% |
|---|---|
| Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life | 1.0% |
Instruments
| Percent Trades Forex | 0.0% |
|---|---|
| Percent Trades Futures | 1.0% |
| Percent Trades Options | 0.0% |
| Percent Trades Stocks | 0.0% |
Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
| Chance of 10% account loss | 100.0% |
|---|---|
| Chance of 20% account loss | 100.0% |
| Chance of 30% account loss | 0.0% |
| Chance of 40% account loss | 0.0% |
| Chance of 50% account loss | 0.0% |
| Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
Automation
| Percentage Signals Automated | 0.0% |
|---|
Popularity
| Popularity (Today) | 0 |
|---|---|
| Popularity (Last 6 weeks) | 0 |
| Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale) | 0 |
Trading Style
| Any stock shorts? 0/1 | 0 |
|---|
Trades-Own-System Certification
| Trades Own System? | 0 |
|---|---|
| TOS percent | 0.0% |
Win / Loss
| Avg Loss | $1,360 |
|---|---|
| Avg Win | $5,186 |
| # Winners | 46 |
| Sum Trade PL (losers) | $137,406 |
| Sum Trade PL (winners) | $238,555 |
| Num Months Winners | 37 |
| # Losers | 101 |
| % Winners | 31.3% |
Dividends
| Dividends Received in Model Acct | 0 |
|---|
Age
| Num Months filled monthly returns table | 238 |
|---|
Frequency
| Avg Position Time (mins) | 8959.38 |
|---|---|
| Avg Position Time (hrs) | 149.32 |
| Avg Trade Length | 6.20 |
| Last Trade Ago | 6847 |
Regression
| Alpha | 0 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0 |
| Treynor Index | 1.48 |
Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
| MAE:Equity, average, all trades | 0.01 |
|---|---|
| MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | 0.01 |
| MAE:Equity, average, losing trades | 0.01 |
| MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| MAE:Equity, average, winning trades | 0 |
| MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades | 1.47 |
| MAE:PL (avg, all trades) | -0.25 |
| MAE:PL (avg, losing trades) | — |
| MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats | 13.92 |
| MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats | 54.41 |
| MAE:PL (avg, winning trades) | — |
| MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades | 0.11 |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades | -1.07 |
| Hold-and-Hope Ratio | 0.67 |
RATIO STATISTICS
| Mean | 0.05 |
|---|---|
| SD | 0.20 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.24 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.24 |
| df | 75 |
| t | 0.61 |
| p | 0.27 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.54 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.02 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -0.54 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 1.02 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.59 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 1.21 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.10 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.05 |
| Upside SD | 0.18 |
| Downside SD | 0.08 |
| N nonnegative terms | 63 |
| N negative terms | 13 |
| N of observations | 76 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.19 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.05 |
| SD of predictor | 0.27 |
| SD of criterion | 0.20 |
| Covariance | 0.00 |
| r | 0.04 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.03 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.04 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.04 |
| DF error | 74 |
| t(b) | 0.35 |
| p(b) | 0.37 |
| t(a) | 0.52 |
| p(a) | 0.30 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.14 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.20 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.12 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.20 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 1.62 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.04 |
| Mean | 0.03 |
| SD | 0.18 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.18 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.18 |
| df | 75 |
| t | 0.45 |
| p | 0.33 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.60 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.96 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -0.60 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0.96 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.36 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 0.98 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.09 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.06 |
| Upside SD | 0.15 |
| Downside SD | 0.09 |
| N nonnegative terms | 63 |
| N negative terms | 13 |
| N of observations | 76 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.15 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.03 |
| SD of predictor | 0.27 |
| SD of criterion | 0.18 |
| Covariance | 0.00 |
| r | 0.05 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.03 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.03 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.03 |
| DF error | 74 |
| t(b) | 0.44 |
| p(b) | 0.33 |
| t(a) | 0.37 |
| p(a) | 0.36 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.12 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.18 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.12 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.17 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.95 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.03 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.08 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.10 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.00 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.01 |
| Mean | 0.05 |
| SD | 0.21 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.26 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.26 |
| df | 1674 |
| t | 0.66 |
| p | 0.49 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.51 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.04 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -0.51 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 1.04 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.34 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 1.77 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.28 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.23 |
| Upside SD | 0.13 |
| Downside SD | 0.16 |
| N nonnegative terms | 1452 |
| N negative terms | 223 |
| N of observations | 1675 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.31 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.05 |
| SD of predictor | 0.57 |
| SD of criterion | 0.21 |
| Covariance | -0.00 |
| r | -0.01 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | -0.00 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.06 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.04 |
| DF error | 1673 |
| t(b) | -0.31 |
| p(b) | 0.50 |
| t(a) | 0.67 |
| p(a) | 0.49 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.02 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.01 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.11 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.22 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | -19.34 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.06 |
| Mean | 0.03 |
| SD | 0.22 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.14 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.14 |
| df | 1674 |
| t | 0.36 |
| p | 0.50 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.63 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.92 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -0.63 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0.92 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.17 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 1.53 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.28 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.25 |
| Upside SD | 0.13 |
| Downside SD | 0.18 |
| N nonnegative terms | 1452 |
| N negative terms | 223 |
| N of observations | 1675 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.15 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.03 |
| SD of predictor | 0.57 |
| SD of criterion | 0.22 |
| Covariance | -0.00 |
| r | -0.01 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | -0.00 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.03 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.05 |
| DF error | 1673 |
| t(b) | -0.22 |
| p(b) | 0.50 |
| t(a) | 0.36 |
| p(a) | 0.49 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.02 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.02 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.14 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.20 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | -14.97 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.03 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.02 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.03 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.00 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.00 |
| Mean | 0 |
| SD | 0 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0 |
| df | 0 |
| t | 0 |
| p | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0 |
| Sortino ratio | 0 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 0 |
| Upside part of mean | 0 |
| Downside part of mean | 0 |
| Upside SD | 0 |
| Downside SD | 0 |
| N nonnegative terms | 131 |
| N negative terms | 0 |
| N of observations | 131 |
| Mean of predictor | 1.02 |
| Mean of criterion | 0 |
| SD of predictor | 0.66 |
| SD of criterion | 0 |
| Covariance | 0 |
| r | 0 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0 |
| Mean Square Error | 0 |
| DF error | 0 |
| t(b) | 0 |
| p(b) | 0 |
| t(a) | 0 |
| p(a) | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0 |
| Mean | 0 |
| SD | 0 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0 |
| df | 0 |
| t | 0 |
| p | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0 |
| Sortino ratio | 0 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 0 |
| Upside part of mean | 0 |
| Downside part of mean | 0 |
| Upside SD | 0 |
| Downside SD | 0 |
| N nonnegative terms | 131 |
| N negative terms | 0 |
| N of observations | 131 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.78 |
| Mean of criterion | 0 |
| SD of predictor | 0.71 |
| SD of criterion | 0 |
| Covariance | 0 |
| r | 0 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0 |
| Mean Square Error | 0 |
| DF error | 0 |
| t(b) | 0 |
| p(b) | 0 |
| t(a) | 0 |
| p(a) | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0 |
| VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl) | 0.02 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0 |
| VaR(95%) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0 |
ORDER STATISTICS
| Number of observations | 76 |
|---|---|
| Minimum | 0.84 |
| Quartile 1 | 1 |
| Median | 1 |
| Quartile 3 | 1 |
| Maximum | 1.44 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.98 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.03 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0 |
| Number outliers low | 13 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.17 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0.98 |
| Number of outliers high | 18 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.24 |
| Mean of outliers high | 1.03 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 2.33 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.00 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 1.70 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.00 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Number of observations | 1675 |
| Minimum | 0.73 |
| Quartile 1 | 1 |
| Median | 1 |
| Quartile 3 | 1 |
| Maximum | 1.20 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.00 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0 |
| Number outliers low | 223 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.13 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0.99 |
| Number of outliers high | 306 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.18 |
| Mean of outliers high | 1.01 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 1.07 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.00 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.96 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.00 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.06 |
| Number of observations | 131 |
| Minimum | 1 |
| Quartile 1 | 1 |
| Median | 1 |
| Quartile 3 | 1 |
| Maximum | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
| Number of observations | 7 |
|---|---|
| Minimum | 0.00 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.00 |
| Median | 0.00 |
| Quartile 3 | 0.06 |
| Maximum | 0.16 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.00 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.00 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.00 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.14 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.06 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 1 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.14 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0.16 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Number of observations | 8 |
| Minimum | 0.00 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.01 |
| Median | 0.04 |
| Quartile 3 | 0.09 |
| Maximum | 0.49 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.01 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.02 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.06 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.33 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.08 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 1 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.12 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0.49 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Number of observations | 0 |
| Minimum | 0 |
| Quartile 1 | 0 |
| Median | 0 |
| Quartile 3 | 0 |
| Maximum | 0 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life? | -381112608 |
| Max Equity Drawdown (num days) | 68 |
| Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative | 0.0% |
COMBINED STATISTICS
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.03 |
|---|---|
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.03 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 0.20 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 0.22 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 0.33 |
| j156mfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| j157mfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.03 |
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.03 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 0.06 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 0.09 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 1.15 |
| j313dfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| j314dfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0 |
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 0 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 0 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 0 |
Trading record
Placed 8 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.
| Symbol | Side | Qty | Opened | Closed | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BO Z7 | long | 3 | Jun 25, 2007 | Dec 14, 2007 | $11,664 |
| PA U7 | short | 4 | Jun 25, 2007 | Sep 26, 2007 | $4,836 |
| KC U7 | long | 3 | Jul 11, 2007 | Jul 12, 2007 | ($1,824) |
| US U7 | short | 5 | Jul 3, 2007 | Jul 11, 2007 | ($2,229) |
| EMD U7 | long | 2 | Jun 27, 2007 | Jul 10, 2007 | $484 |
| ES U7 | long | 1 | Jun 27, 2007 | Jul 10, 2007 | $542 |
| QRB Q7 | short | 1 | Jul 5, 2007 | Jul 5, 2007 | ($1,604) |
| O N7 | short | 2 | Jun 12, 2007 | Jul 2, 2007 | $2,559 |
| KC U7 | long | 2 | Jun 28, 2007 | Jul 2, 2007 | ($1,816) |
| QRB Q7 | short | 1 | Jun 26, 2007 | Jul 2, 2007 | ($1,310) |
| EZ U7 | short | 10 | Jun 28, 2007 | Jul 2, 2007 | ($734) |
| QHG Q7 | short | 1 | Jun 19, 2007 | Jun 28, 2007 | ($833) |
| QHG U7 | short | 1 | Jun 25, 2007 | Jun 28, 2007 | ($908) |
| DX U7 | long | 2 | Jun 12, 2007 | Jun 26, 2007 | $924 |
| QCL Q7 | short | 1 | Jun 20, 2007 | Jun 20, 2007 | ($1,098) |
| BP U7 | short | 2 | Jun 17, 2007 | Jun 20, 2007 | ($1,566) |
| YM U7 | short | 3 | Jun 19, 2007 | Jun 19, 2007 | ($969) |
| BP M7 | short | 3 | Jun 6, 2007 | Jun 17, 2007 | $3,014 |
| QCL N7 | short | 1 | Jun 8, 2007 | Jun 14, 2007 | ($458) |
| C N7 | short | 2 | Jun 12, 2007 | Jun 13, 2007 | ($1,016) |
| LH N7 | short | 4 | Jun 6, 2007 | Jun 12, 2007 | $228 |
| O N7 | short | 4 | Jun 6, 2007 | Jun 11, 2007 | ($732) |
| W N7 | long | 3 | May 23, 2007 | Jun 11, 2007 | $6,576 |
| S N7 | short | 4 | Jun 8, 2007 | Jun 10, 2007 | ($1,632) |
| EU M7 | long | 2 | Jun 4, 2007 | Jun 8, 2007 | ($3) |
| KW N7 | long | 2 | May 24, 2007 | Jun 5, 2007 | $2,322 |
| PB N7 | short | 3 | May 14, 2007 | May 29, 2007 | $1,636 |
| QGC M7 | long | 1 | May 20, 2007 | May 22, 2007 | ($368) |
| DX M7 | short | 3 | May 14, 2007 | May 17, 2007 | ($1,254) |
| BP M7 | long | 3 | May 15, 2007 | May 16, 2007 | ($1,637) |
Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.