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Foreximo

Forex · Started Dec 2006

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-1.3%
Max Drawdown
76.1%
Trades
400
Win Trades
52.8%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
5.0%

About this strategy


No non sense Forex trading.
Low leverage, low frequency trading.




Our beliefs

We believe in being modest and not greedy.
We believe in long term targets with low but steady returns.
We are not in the market for the excitement.
We do not believe in technical analysis, day trading or mechanical trading.
We do not believe that high number of trades will necessarily imply in high profit.



What kind of trading is this?

Swing type (1 day to 2 weeks range).
Less than one trade per day in average.
Low leverage employed.
Market orders mostly.
EURUSD pair (in rare occasions USDJPY or EURJPY).
Most of our trades are winners (check our C2 trade log).



What kind of return can be expected?


5 to 10% equity increase per month
in average on a consistent basis.
Check our C2 trade log to verify. This might not be much compared what competitors give but you wont have "surprises" with high drawdown that come along with those systems. For a risk averse trader, this is the right system.



Does that mean we wont have months with negative performance?

Drawdown is a fact of life. Without doubt we will and you must be prepared psychologically.
But we expect to be few.
Past records show 2 months a year with 15% drawdown in average.



Signals

Based on fundamental analysis;
Easy to follow;
In average one signal per day;
Entry at market prices in most of cases;
May (or not) have preset targets;
No preset stop loss;

Primarily aimed to Asia based traders (22:00 GMT to 15:00 GMT). Signals can come at any time but 95% will be during this time frame.

What if you are not in that time zone or cannot stay in touch with Collective2 (thru email or Instant Trade Messenger) all the time? No problem. Since signals are unrelated to each other, you do not need to worry about signals sent when away.

I do not, however, recommend skipping signals when you are in touch. Since signals are sent with purpose of generating profits, more signals you trade more chance you have to profit. As you can see by looking our past trade history, most of our signals are winners.



Fundamental Analysis

The core component of our system. News, sentiment, dynamics, volatility and experience define the signals. No mechanical decision. Only old fashioned human based analysis.

After years trying technical analysis we reached the conclusion you may have a number of months of exceptional performance but in the long term they are losers. The same can be said of mechanical systems (that may or not be based on technical analysis).



Money Management

Regardless of the leverage chosen at contract time with your broker, actual leverage should be 3:1.

That is, you should employ per trade 3 times (or less) your actual equity. For example, in
hypothetical account provided by Collective2, the initial capital is $100K for a mini lot account
($10K). $100K/$10K = 10 real mini-lots x 3 = 30 mini-lots to trade. When the equity reaches $133K, then we will trade 40 mini-lots and so on.

In real life environment, to trade mini accounts you should have a minimum of $3,333 (or other
currency) in your account. $3,333 x 3 = 10,000 = 1 mini lot; you trade just one mini lot. This
is high compared to what other signal providers suggest but it will protect yourself from
loosing your shirt. Take my word, this will allow you to sleep at night even at rough times.
If $3,333 is too much, try to open account at those brokers that allow trading in lots of $1,000. In this case, $333 will be enough. FX Solutions (www.fxsol.com) is one of them.

Added to the fact we have, in average, 1 to 6 trades open trades at any time, your total exposure will be max 18:1. It does not take a genius to figure out this is a low risk system. Even then you will able to profit 5 to 10% per month in average!



Stop Losses

The system does not set stop loss on per trade basis.
We start to cut loosing trades when total of open trades is -10% of total equity.
The size of the losers will be larger than winners, but since the number of winners is greater, we end up having profits.


In summary

- Based in old fashioned no-non sense approach to trading;
- And, again, we believe in being modest.


Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
200611.211.2
2007-9.824.311.7-0.7-6.516.12.91.426.141.6-21.1-20.557.7
2008-14.721.425.0-10.2-15.3-4.5-22.3-14.5-15.3-22.7-0.30.0-59.1
20090.00.07.50.00.00.00.00.00.2-0.00.00.07.8
20100.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.0
20110.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/3/2006
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age241 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades400
# Profitable211
% Profitable52.8%
Avg trade duration1.4 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown76.1%
drawdown periodNov 07, 2007 - Nov 23, 2008
Annual Return (Compounded)-1.3%
Avg win$3,459
Avg loss$3,817

Ratios

W:L ratio1.01
Sharpe Ratio-0.10
Sortino Ratio-0.15
Calmar Ratio0.02

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.02
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life446.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-470.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-1.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity287.8%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$3,817
Avg Win$3,459
# Winners211
Sum Trade PL (losers)$721,383
Sum Trade PL (winners)$729,848
Num Months Winners15
# Losers189
% Winners52.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table238

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)2027.33
Avg Position Time (hrs)33.79
Avg Trade Length1.40
Last Trade Ago6543

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0.01
Treynor Index-0.40

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.05
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades53.37
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.90
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats30.46
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats62.28
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.71
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.22
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.02

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.06
SD0.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.20
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.20
df76
t0.52
p0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.98
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.57
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.98
Sortino ratio0.31
Upside Potential Ratio1.40
Upside part of mean0.28
Downside part of mean-0.22
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms64
N negative terms13
N of observations77
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.31
Covariance0.02
r0.22
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.30
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.01
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error75
t(b)1.99
p(b)0.02
t(a)0.07
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.25
Treynor index (mean / b)0.21
Jensen alpha (a)0.01
Mean0.02
SD0.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.05
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.05
df76
t0.12
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.72
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.82
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.73
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.82
Sortino ratio0.07
Upside Potential Ratio1.13
Upside part of mean0.26
Downside part of mean-0.24
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.23
N nonnegative terms64
N negative terms13
N of observations77
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.02
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.31
Covariance0.02
r0.27
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.35
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.04
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error75
t(b)2.43
p(b)0.01
t(a)-0.33
p(a)0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.65
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.20
Treynor index (mean / b)0.04
Jensen alpha (a)-0.04
VaR(95%)0.14
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.17
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean0.59
SD1.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.50
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.50
df1697
t1.28
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.27
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.27
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.27
Sortino ratio0.95
Upside Potential Ratio4.26
Upside part of mean2.65
Downside part of mean-2.06
Upside SD0.99
Downside SD0.62
N nonnegative terms1452
N negative terms246
N of observations1698
Mean of predictor0.36
Mean of criterion0.59
SD of predictor0.64
SD of criterion1.17
Covariance0.42
r0.56
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.23
Mean Square Error0.94
DF error1696
t(b)27.80
p(b)0.22
t(a)0.59
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.95
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.98
Treynor index (mean / b)0.58
Jensen alpha (a)0.23
Mean0.02
SD1.05
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.01
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.01
df1697
t0.04
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.78
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.76
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.78
Sortino ratio0.02
Upside Potential Ratio3.16
Upside part of mean2.32
Downside part of mean-2.30
Upside SD0.75
Downside SD0.73
N nonnegative terms1452
N negative terms246
N of observations1698
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.02
SD of predictor0.62
SD of criterion1.05
Covariance0.36
r0.55
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.92
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.13
Mean Square Error0.77
DF error1696
t(b)26.80
p(b)0.23
t(a)-0.38
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.99
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.55
Treynor index (mean / b)0.02
Jensen alpha (a)-0.13
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.98
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.55
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.82
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.57
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations77
Minimum0.70
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.31
Mean of quarter 10.93
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.10
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low13
Percentage of outliers low0.17
Mean of outliers low0.89
Number of outliers high18
Percentage of outliers high0.23
Mean of outliers high1.10
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-33.11
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.36
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.21
Number of observations1698
Minimum0.57
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum2.66
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low246
Percentage of outliers low0.14
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high270
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high1.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.04
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations4
Minimum0.03
Quartile 10.11
Median0.23
Quartile 30.40
Maximum0.63
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.14
Mean of quarter 30.32
Mean of quarter 40.63
Inter Quartile Range0.29
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations13
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.02
Median0.06
Quartile 30.24
Maximum0.66
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.19
Mean of quarter 40.43
Inter Quartile Range0.22
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high0.66
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.24
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.46
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.69
Extreme Value Index (regression method)3.05
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.71
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-375475168
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)382
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.02
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.02
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.02
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.02
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.09
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.02
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.02
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.02
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.04
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.12
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 259 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
EUR/USD long320Oct 13, 2008Oct 15, 2008($6,477)
EUR/USD long330Oct 8, 2008Oct 9, 2008($4,514)
USD/JPY long330Oct 9, 2008Oct 9, 2008($43)
EUR/USD short330Oct 1, 2008Oct 1, 2008($1,587)
USD/JPY short340Oct 1, 2008Oct 1, 2008($9)
USD/JPY long340Sep 30, 2008Sep 30, 2008$11
EUR/USD short340Sep 30, 2008Sep 30, 2008$2,465
EUR/USD short390Sep 29, 2008Sep 29, 2008($7,648)
USD/JPY long390Sep 29, 2008Sep 29, 2008($50)
USD/JPY long390Sep 23, 2008Sep 23, 2008($9)
EUR/USD short390Sep 23, 2008Sep 23, 2008($1,517)
EUR/USD long390Sep 22, 2008Sep 22, 2008$6,622
EUR/USD long390Sep 22, 2008Sep 22, 2008$714
USD/JPY short390Sep 22, 2008Sep 22, 2008($7)
EUR/USD long400Sep 19, 2008Sep 19, 2008$1,612
EUR/USD short400Sep 18, 2008Sep 19, 2008($4,908)
EUR/USD long520Sep 9, 2008Sep 9, 2008($734,708)
EUR/USD long450Aug 12, 2008Aug 15, 2008($9,234)
EUR/USD long450Aug 11, 2008Aug 12, 2008($9,063)
USD/JPY short540Jul 22, 2008Jul 31, 2008($68)
EUR/USD long580Jul 22, 2008Jul 23, 2008($11,780)
USD/JPY short570Jul 16, 2008Jul 17, 2008($72)
AUD/USD long580Jul 15, 2008Jul 15, 2008$1,067
EUR/USD long580Jul 14, 2008Jul 15, 2008$783
GBP/USD long580Jul 15, 2008Jul 15, 2008$1,212
USD/JPY short580Jul 14, 2008Jul 15, 2008$43
USD/JPY short600Jun 30, 2008Jul 7, 2008($76)
EUR/USD long300Jul 3, 2008Jul 3, 2008($6,192)
EUR/USD long600Jun 30, 2008Jul 2, 2008$4,188
EUR/USD short600Jun 18, 2008Jun 18, 2008($1,602)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.