Foreximo
- hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
- -1.3%
- Max Drawdown
- 76.1%
- Trades
- 400
- Win Trades
- 52.8%
- Profit Factor
- 1
- Win Months
- 5.0%
About this strategy
No non sense Forex trading.
Low leverage, low frequency trading.
Our beliefs
We believe in being modest and not greedy.
We believe in long term targets with low but steady returns.
We are not in the market for the excitement.
We do not believe in technical analysis, day trading or mechanical trading.
We do not believe that high number of trades will necessarily imply in high profit.
What kind of trading is this?
Swing type (1 day to 2 weeks range).
Less than one trade per day in average.
Low leverage employed.
Market orders mostly.
EURUSD pair (in rare occasions USDJPY or EURJPY).
Most of our trades are winners (check our C2 trade log).
What kind of return can be expected?
5 to 10% equity increase per month
in average on a consistent basis.
Check our C2 trade log to verify. This might not be much compared what competitors give but you wont have "surprises" with high drawdown that come along with those systems. For a risk averse trader, this is the right system.
Does that mean we wont have months with negative performance?
Drawdown is a fact of life. Without doubt we will and you must be prepared psychologically.
But we expect to be few.
Past records show 2 months a year with 15% drawdown in average.
Signals
Based on fundamental analysis;
Easy to follow;
In average one signal per day;
Entry at market prices in most of cases;
May (or not) have preset targets;
No preset stop loss;
Primarily aimed to Asia based traders (22:00 GMT to 15:00 GMT). Signals can come at any time but 95% will be during this time frame.
What if you are not in that time zone or cannot stay in touch with Collective2 (thru email or Instant Trade Messenger) all the time? No problem. Since signals are unrelated to each other, you do not need to worry about signals sent when away.
I do not, however, recommend skipping signals when you are in touch. Since signals are sent with purpose of generating profits, more signals you trade more chance you have to profit. As you can see by looking our past trade history, most of our signals are winners.
Fundamental Analysis
The core component of our system. News, sentiment, dynamics, volatility and experience define the signals. No mechanical decision. Only old fashioned human based analysis.
After years trying technical analysis we reached the conclusion you may have a number of months of exceptional performance but in the long term they are losers. The same can be said of mechanical systems (that may or not be based on technical analysis).
Money Management
Regardless of the leverage chosen at contract time with your broker, actual leverage should be 3:1.
That is, you should employ per trade 3 times (or less) your actual equity. For example, in
hypothetical account provided by Collective2, the initial capital is $100K for a mini lot account
($10K). $100K/$10K = 10 real mini-lots x 3 = 30 mini-lots to trade. When the equity reaches $133K, then we will trade 40 mini-lots and so on.
In real life environment, to trade mini accounts you should have a minimum of $3,333 (or other
currency) in your account. $3,333 x 3 = 10,000 = 1 mini lot; you trade just one mini lot. This
is high compared to what other signal providers suggest but it will protect yourself from
loosing your shirt. Take my word, this will allow you to sleep at night even at rough times.
If $3,333 is too much, try to open account at those brokers that allow trading in lots of $1,000. In this case, $333 will be enough. FX Solutions (www.fxsol.com) is one of them.
Added to the fact we have, in average, 1 to 6 trades open trades at any time, your total exposure will be max 18:1. It does not take a genius to figure out this is a low risk system. Even then you will able to profit 5 to 10% per month in average!
Stop Losses
The system does not set stop loss on per trade basis.
We start to cut loosing trades when total of open trades is -10% of total equity.
The size of the losers will be larger than winners, but since the number of winners is greater, we end up having profits.
In summary
- Based in old fashioned no-non sense approach to trading;
- And, again, we believe in being modest.
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 11.2 | 11.2 | |||||||||||
| 2007 | -9.8 | 24.3 | 11.7 | -0.7 | -6.5 | 16.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 26.1 | 41.6 | -21.1 | -20.5 | 57.7 |
| 2008 | -14.7 | 21.4 | 25.0 | -10.2 | -15.3 | -4.5 | -22.3 | -14.5 | -15.3 | -22.7 | -0.3 | 0.0 | -59.1 |
| 2009 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.8 |
| 2010 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2011 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2012 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2013 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2014 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2015 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2016 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2017 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2018 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2019 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2020 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2021 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2022 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2023 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2024 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Statistics
Overview
| Strategy began | 12/3/2006 |
|---|---|
| Suggested Minimum Capital | $100,000 |
| Age | 241 months |
| What it trades | Forex |
| # Trades | 400 |
| # Profitable | 211 |
| % Profitable | 52.8% |
| Avg trade duration | 1.4 days |
| Max peak-to-valley drawdown | 76.1% |
| drawdown period | Nov 07, 2007 - Nov 23, 2008 |
| Annual Return (Compounded) | -1.3% |
| Avg win | $3,459 |
| Avg loss | $3,817 |
Ratios
| W:L ratio | 1.01 |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.10 |
| Sortino Ratio | -0.15 |
| Calmar Ratio | 0.02 |
CORRELATION STATISTICS
| Correlation to SP500 | 0.02 |
|---|---|
| Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life | 446.8% |
| Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu) | -470.9% |
Return Statistics
| Ann Return (w trading costs) | -1.3% |
|---|---|
| Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant) | -0.0% |
| Return Pcnt Since TOS Status | 0.0% |
| Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees) | 0.4% |
Slump
| Current Slump as Pcnt Equity | 287.8% |
|---|---|
| Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life | 0.9% |
Instruments
| Percent Trades Forex | 1.0% |
|---|---|
| Percent Trades Futures | 0.0% |
| Percent Trades Options | 0.0% |
| Percent Trades Stocks | 0.0% |
Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
| Chance of 10% account loss | 100.0% |
|---|---|
| Chance of 20% account loss | 100.0% |
| Chance of 30% account loss | 100.0% |
| Chance of 40% account loss | 100.0% |
| Chance of 50% account loss | 100.0% |
| Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 100.0% |
| Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 100.0% |
| Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
Automation
| Percentage Signals Automated | 0.0% |
|---|
Popularity
| Popularity (Today) | 0 |
|---|---|
| Popularity (Last 6 weeks) | 0 |
| Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale) | 0 |
Trading Style
| Any stock shorts? 0/1 | 0 |
|---|
Trades-Own-System Certification
| Trades Own System? | 0 |
|---|---|
| TOS percent | 0.0% |
Win / Loss
| Avg Loss | $3,817 |
|---|---|
| Avg Win | $3,459 |
| # Winners | 211 |
| Sum Trade PL (losers) | $721,383 |
| Sum Trade PL (winners) | $729,848 |
| Num Months Winners | 15 |
| # Losers | 189 |
| % Winners | 52.8% |
Dividends
| Dividends Received in Model Acct | 0 |
|---|
Age
| Num Months filled monthly returns table | 238 |
|---|
Frequency
| Avg Position Time (mins) | 2027.33 |
|---|---|
| Avg Position Time (hrs) | 33.79 |
| Avg Trade Length | 1.40 |
| Last Trade Ago | 6543 |
Regression
| Alpha | -0.01 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.01 |
| Treynor Index | -0.40 |
Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
| MAE:Equity, average, all trades | 0.02 |
|---|---|
| MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | 0.05 |
| MAE:Equity, average, losing trades | 0.03 |
| MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| MAE:Equity, average, winning trades | 0.02 |
| MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades | 53.37 |
| MAE:PL (avg, all trades) | 0.90 |
| MAE:PL (avg, losing trades) | — |
| MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats | 30.46 |
| MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats | 62.28 |
| MAE:PL (avg, winning trades) | — |
| MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades | 0.71 |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades | -1.22 |
| Hold-and-Hope Ratio | 0.02 |
RATIO STATISTICS
| Mean | 0.06 |
|---|---|
| SD | 0.31 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.20 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.20 |
| df | 76 |
| t | 0.52 |
| p | 0.30 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.57 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.98 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -0.57 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0.98 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.31 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 1.40 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.28 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.22 |
| Upside SD | 0.23 |
| Downside SD | 0.20 |
| N nonnegative terms | 64 |
| N negative terms | 13 |
| N of observations | 77 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.19 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.06 |
| SD of predictor | 0.24 |
| SD of criterion | 0.31 |
| Covariance | 0.02 |
| r | 0.22 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.30 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.01 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.09 |
| DF error | 75 |
| t(b) | 1.99 |
| p(b) | 0.02 |
| t(a) | 0.07 |
| p(a) | 0.47 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.00 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.59 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.24 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.25 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.21 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.01 |
| Mean | 0.02 |
| SD | 0.31 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.05 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.05 |
| df | 76 |
| t | 0.12 |
| p | 0.45 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.72 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.82 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -0.73 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0.82 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.07 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 1.13 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.26 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.24 |
| Upside SD | 0.21 |
| Downside SD | 0.23 |
| N nonnegative terms | 64 |
| N negative terms | 13 |
| N of observations | 77 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.16 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.02 |
| SD of predictor | 0.24 |
| SD of criterion | 0.31 |
| Covariance | 0.02 |
| r | 0.27 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.35 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.04 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.09 |
| DF error | 75 |
| t(b) | 2.43 |
| p(b) | 0.01 |
| t(a) | -0.33 |
| p(a) | 0.63 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.06 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.65 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.28 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.20 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.04 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | -0.04 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.14 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.17 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.02 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.05 |
| Mean | 0.59 |
| SD | 1.17 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.50 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.50 |
| df | 1697 |
| t | 1.28 |
| p | 0.48 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.27 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.27 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -0.27 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 1.27 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.95 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 4.26 |
| Upside part of mean | 2.65 |
| Downside part of mean | -2.06 |
| Upside SD | 0.99 |
| Downside SD | 0.62 |
| N nonnegative terms | 1452 |
| N negative terms | 246 |
| N of observations | 1698 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.36 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.59 |
| SD of predictor | 0.64 |
| SD of criterion | 1.17 |
| Covariance | 0.42 |
| r | 0.56 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 1.02 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.23 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.94 |
| DF error | 1696 |
| t(b) | 27.80 |
| p(b) | 0.22 |
| t(a) | 0.59 |
| p(a) | 0.49 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.95 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 1.09 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.52 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.98 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.58 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.23 |
| Mean | 0.02 |
| SD | 1.05 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.01 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.01 |
| df | 1697 |
| t | 0.04 |
| p | 0.50 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.76 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.78 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -0.76 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0.78 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.02 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 3.16 |
| Upside part of mean | 2.32 |
| Downside part of mean | -2.30 |
| Upside SD | 0.75 |
| Downside SD | 0.73 |
| N nonnegative terms | 1452 |
| N negative terms | 246 |
| N of observations | 1698 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.16 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.02 |
| SD of predictor | 0.62 |
| SD of criterion | 1.05 |
| Covariance | 0.36 |
| r | 0.55 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.92 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.13 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.77 |
| DF error | 1696 |
| t(b) | 26.80 |
| p(b) | 0.23 |
| t(a) | -0.38 |
| p(a) | 0.50 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.85 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.99 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.81 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.55 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.02 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | -0.13 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.10 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.12 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.01 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.02 |
| Mean | 0 |
| SD | 0 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0 |
| df | 0 |
| t | 0 |
| p | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0 |
| Sortino ratio | 0 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 0 |
| Upside part of mean | 0 |
| Downside part of mean | 0 |
| Upside SD | 0 |
| Downside SD | 0 |
| N nonnegative terms | 131 |
| N negative terms | 0 |
| N of observations | 131 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.98 |
| Mean of criterion | 0 |
| SD of predictor | 0.55 |
| SD of criterion | 0 |
| Covariance | 0 |
| r | 0 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0 |
| Mean Square Error | 0 |
| DF error | 0 |
| t(b) | 0 |
| p(b) | 0 |
| t(a) | 0 |
| p(a) | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0 |
| Mean | 0 |
| SD | 0 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0 |
| df | 0 |
| t | 0 |
| p | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0 |
| Sortino ratio | 0 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 0 |
| Upside part of mean | 0 |
| Downside part of mean | 0 |
| Upside SD | 0 |
| Downside SD | 0 |
| N nonnegative terms | 131 |
| N negative terms | 0 |
| N of observations | 131 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.82 |
| Mean of criterion | 0 |
| SD of predictor | 0.57 |
| SD of criterion | 0 |
| Covariance | 0 |
| r | 0 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0 |
| Mean Square Error | 0 |
| DF error | 0 |
| t(b) | 0 |
| p(b) | 0 |
| t(a) | 0 |
| p(a) | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0 |
| VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl) | 0.10 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0 |
| VaR(95%) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0 |
ORDER STATISTICS
| Number of observations | 77 |
|---|---|
| Minimum | 0.70 |
| Quartile 1 | 1 |
| Median | 1 |
| Quartile 3 | 1 |
| Maximum | 1.31 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.93 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.10 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0 |
| Number outliers low | 13 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.17 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0.89 |
| Number of outliers high | 18 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.23 |
| Mean of outliers high | 1.10 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | -33.11 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.00 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.00 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | -0.36 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.13 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.21 |
| Number of observations | 1698 |
| Minimum | 0.57 |
| Quartile 1 | 1 |
| Median | 1 |
| Quartile 3 | 1 |
| Maximum | 2.66 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.97 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.04 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0 |
| Number outliers low | 246 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.14 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0.95 |
| Number of outliers high | 270 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.16 |
| Mean of outliers high | 1.06 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 1.04 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.01 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Number of observations | 131 |
| Minimum | 1 |
| Quartile 1 | 1 |
| Median | 1 |
| Quartile 3 | 1 |
| Maximum | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
| Number of observations | 4 |
|---|---|
| Minimum | 0.03 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.11 |
| Median | 0.23 |
| Quartile 3 | 0.40 |
| Maximum | 0.63 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.03 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.14 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.32 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.63 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.29 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Number of observations | 13 |
| Minimum | 0.01 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.02 |
| Median | 0.06 |
| Quartile 3 | 0.24 |
| Maximum | 0.66 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.02 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.05 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.19 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.43 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.22 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 1 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.08 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0.66 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.24 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.46 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.69 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 3.05 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.71 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Number of observations | 0 |
| Minimum | 0 |
| Quartile 1 | 0 |
| Median | 0 |
| Quartile 3 | 0 |
| Maximum | 0 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life? | -375475168 |
| Max Equity Drawdown (num days) | 382 |
| Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative | 0.0% |
COMBINED STATISTICS
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.02 |
|---|---|
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.02 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 0.02 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 0.02 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 0.09 |
| j156mfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| j157mfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.02 |
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.02 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 0.02 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 0.04 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 0.12 |
| j313dfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| j314dfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0 |
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 0 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 0 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 0 |
Trading record
Placed 259 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.
| Symbol | Side | Qty | Opened | Closed | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | long | 320 | Oct 13, 2008 | Oct 15, 2008 | ($6,477) |
| EUR/USD | long | 330 | Oct 8, 2008 | Oct 9, 2008 | ($4,514) |
| USD/JPY | long | 330 | Oct 9, 2008 | Oct 9, 2008 | ($43) |
| EUR/USD | short | 330 | Oct 1, 2008 | Oct 1, 2008 | ($1,587) |
| USD/JPY | short | 340 | Oct 1, 2008 | Oct 1, 2008 | ($9) |
| USD/JPY | long | 340 | Sep 30, 2008 | Sep 30, 2008 | $11 |
| EUR/USD | short | 340 | Sep 30, 2008 | Sep 30, 2008 | $2,465 |
| EUR/USD | short | 390 | Sep 29, 2008 | Sep 29, 2008 | ($7,648) |
| USD/JPY | long | 390 | Sep 29, 2008 | Sep 29, 2008 | ($50) |
| USD/JPY | long | 390 | Sep 23, 2008 | Sep 23, 2008 | ($9) |
| EUR/USD | short | 390 | Sep 23, 2008 | Sep 23, 2008 | ($1,517) |
| EUR/USD | long | 390 | Sep 22, 2008 | Sep 22, 2008 | $6,622 |
| EUR/USD | long | 390 | Sep 22, 2008 | Sep 22, 2008 | $714 |
| USD/JPY | short | 390 | Sep 22, 2008 | Sep 22, 2008 | ($7) |
| EUR/USD | long | 400 | Sep 19, 2008 | Sep 19, 2008 | $1,612 |
| EUR/USD | short | 400 | Sep 18, 2008 | Sep 19, 2008 | ($4,908) |
| EUR/USD | long | 520 | Sep 9, 2008 | Sep 9, 2008 | ($734,708) |
| EUR/USD | long | 450 | Aug 12, 2008 | Aug 15, 2008 | ($9,234) |
| EUR/USD | long | 450 | Aug 11, 2008 | Aug 12, 2008 | ($9,063) |
| USD/JPY | short | 540 | Jul 22, 2008 | Jul 31, 2008 | ($68) |
| EUR/USD | long | 580 | Jul 22, 2008 | Jul 23, 2008 | ($11,780) |
| USD/JPY | short | 570 | Jul 16, 2008 | Jul 17, 2008 | ($72) |
| AUD/USD | long | 580 | Jul 15, 2008 | Jul 15, 2008 | $1,067 |
| EUR/USD | long | 580 | Jul 14, 2008 | Jul 15, 2008 | $783 |
| GBP/USD | long | 580 | Jul 15, 2008 | Jul 15, 2008 | $1,212 |
| USD/JPY | short | 580 | Jul 14, 2008 | Jul 15, 2008 | $43 |
| USD/JPY | short | 600 | Jun 30, 2008 | Jul 7, 2008 | ($76) |
| EUR/USD | long | 300 | Jul 3, 2008 | Jul 3, 2008 | ($6,192) |
| EUR/USD | long | 600 | Jun 30, 2008 | Jul 2, 2008 | $4,188 |
| EUR/USD | short | 600 | Jun 18, 2008 | Jun 18, 2008 | ($1,602) |
Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.