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Signaux Forex

Forex · Started Aug 2006

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
33.0%
Trades
206
Win Trades
43.2%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
5.4%

About this strategy







System stopped / Systeme arr

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20060.81.39.512.4-10.512.5
2007-6.33.4-4.4-10.5-0.63.8-0.59.60.20.34.40.1-2.1
2008-0.20.0-0.30.2-9.30.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-9.6
20090.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20100.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.0-0.0-0.0
20110.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.01.20.00.00.00.01.2
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began8/29/2006
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age244 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades206
# Profitable89
% Profitable43.2%
Avg trade duration21.6 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown33.0%
drawdown periodNov 30, 2006 - May 29, 2007
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$1,946
Avg loss$1,389

Ratios

W:L ratio1.07
Sharpe Ratio-0.17
Sortino Ratio-0.28
Calmar Ratio-0.07

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life485.6%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-486.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity25.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated10.8%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,389
Avg Win$1,946
# Winners89
Sum Trade PL (losers)$162,559
Sum Trade PL (winners)$173,209
Num Months Winners16
# Losers117
% Winners43.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table242

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1293.38
Avg Position Time (hrs)21.56
Avg Trade Length0.90
Last Trade Ago6953

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-0.01
Treynor Index0.74

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades42.77
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.41
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats20.71
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats21.48
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.38
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.14
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.02

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.01
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.08
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.08
df79
t-0.20
p0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.68
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.84
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.68
Sortino ratio-0.10
Upside Potential Ratio0.72
Upside part of mean0.08
Downside part of mean-0.09
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms65
N negative terms15
N of observations80
Mean of predictor0.26
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.00
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error78
t(b)0.29
p(b)0.39
t(a)-0.26
p(a)0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.09
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.84
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
Mean-0.02
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.14
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.14
df79
t-0.37
p0.64
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.90
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.62
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.90
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.62
Sortino ratio-0.17
Upside Potential Ratio0.64
Upside part of mean0.07
Downside part of mean-0.09
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms65
N negative terms15
N of observations80
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion-0.02
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error78
t(b)0.39
p(b)0.35
t(a)-0.43
p(a)0.67
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.09
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.01
Jensen alpha (a)-0.02
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.03
SD0.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.09
df1749
t0.23
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.85
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.67
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.85
Sortino ratio0.13
Upside Potential Ratio2.40
Upside part of mean0.51
Downside part of mean-0.48
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms1516
N negative terms234
N of observations1750
Mean of predictor0.38
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.56
SD of criterion0.31
Covariance0.01
r0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.01
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error1748
t(b)3.41
p(b)0.46
t(a)0.09
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24
Treynor index (mean / b)0.62
Jensen alpha (a)0.01
Mean-0.02
SD0.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.06
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.06
df1749
t-0.16
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.69
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.82
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.69
Sortino ratio-0.09
Upside Potential Ratio2.13
Upside part of mean0.49
Downside part of mean-0.51
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.23
N nonnegative terms1516
N negative terms234
N of observations1750
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion-0.02
SD of predictor0.55
SD of criterion0.31
Covariance0.01
r0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error1748
t(b)3.47
p(b)0.46
t(a)-0.25
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.20
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.42
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.89
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.61
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.69
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.62
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations80
Minimum0.81
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low15
Percentage of outliers low0.19
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high12
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)2.35
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.32
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1750
Minimum0.79
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.26
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low234
Percentage of outliers low0.13
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high243
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.65
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.47
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.24
Quartile 10.24
Median0.24
Quartile 30.24
Maximum0.24
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations2
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.08
Median0.14
Quartile 30.21
Maximum0.27
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.27
Inter Quartile Range0.13
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-401500960
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)180
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.02
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.02
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.08
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.24
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.02
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.02
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.07
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.07
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.50
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 210 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
USD/CHF long1610Aug 29, 2007Aug 30, 2007$373
USD/JPY long270Aug 29, 2007Aug 29, 2007$28
EUR/USD short1030Aug 29, 2007Aug 29, 2007($4,807)
USD/CAD long990Aug 29, 2007Aug 29, 2007($2,687)
GBP/USD long1020Aug 29, 2007Aug 29, 2007$6,024
GBP/USD short248.99999619Aug 29, 2007Aug 29, 2007($65)
USD/JPY short10Aug 29, 2007Aug 29, 2007$73
USD/JPY long46.99999809Aug 29, 2007Aug 29, 2007($0)
USD/CHF short50Aug 29, 2007Aug 29, 2007($12)
USD/CHF short50Aug 29, 2007Aug 29, 2007($9)
USD/JPY long510Aug 29, 2007Aug 29, 2007($2)
EUR/CHF short10Aug 28, 2007Aug 28, 2007($7)
EUR/CHF short10Aug 28, 2007Aug 28, 2007($8)
EUR/CHF short10Aug 28, 2007Aug 28, 2007($7)
EUR/CHF short10Aug 28, 2007Aug 28, 2007($6)
EUR/CHF short10Aug 28, 2007Aug 28, 2007($6)
EUR/CHF short10Aug 28, 2007Aug 28, 2007($6)
EUR/CHF short10Aug 28, 2007Aug 28, 2007($7)
EUR/CHF short10Aug 28, 2007Aug 28, 2007($6)
EUR/CHF short10Aug 28, 2007Aug 28, 2007($6)
EUR/CHF short10Aug 28, 2007Aug 28, 2007($5)
EUR/CHF short10Aug 28, 2007Aug 28, 2007($6)
EUR/CHF short10Aug 28, 2007Aug 28, 2007($6)
EUR/CHF short10Aug 28, 2007Aug 28, 2007($6)
EUR/USD short10Aug 28, 2007Aug 28, 2007($4)
EUR/USD long100Jul 2, 2007Jul 2, 2007$10
EUR/USD short100Jun 20, 2007Jun 20, 2007$20
EUR/USD short100Jun 20, 2007Jun 20, 2007$10
EUR/USD long100Jun 20, 2007Jun 20, 2007$10
EUR/USD long300Jun 19, 2007Jun 19, 2007($10)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.