Bottoms up
- hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
- 0.0%
- Max Drawdown
- 100.0%
- Trades
- 525
- Win Trades
- 46.5%
- Profit Factor
- 0.10
- Win Months
- 21.6%
About this strategy
OLD AND RESPECTED SYSTEM.
Signals are issued after market hours- EASY TO TRADE
My goal is to achieve 35% annualized return consistently while limiting risk. (S&P500 max drawdown 41%, vs. Bottoms up of 18%!!! )
Generally look for 7-13% gain on average trade, if gain doesnt pan out, will close out position between 2 and 4 weeks. Up to 12-15 open positions at any time (with each position averaging between 5-8% of total portfolio- CONSERVATIVE SYSTEM) Targets and stop losses are set with most signals. Average trade length is 2 weeks.
Limit orders are placed above market price to avoid slippage- its basically a market order, but allows the C2 results to mimic real life.
For the most part I usually try to exit the trade within a few days to a couple of weeks. I am available for any further questions and also make myself available for emailing.
As of April 1, 2006, went to an EOD(after market close) signals.
---As of 2/1/2007 the system will no longer trade Options in the system. If when I am sending the signals, and you are interested in buying an option on the underlying security, email me and I will be more than happy to advise. I only did 4 options trades up to this point, and want to target my system to "stock" traders, since I was getting 99% of all my profits from stocks anyways. If you are interested in my options trading service, click on my other system-spy options.
disclaimer: Past results are not indicative of future results.
Signals are issued after market hours- EASY TO TRADE
My goal is to achieve 35% annualized return consistently while limiting risk. (S&P500 max drawdown 41%, vs. Bottoms up of 18%!!! )
Generally look for 7-13% gain on average trade, if gain doesnt pan out, will close out position between 2 and 4 weeks. Up to 12-15 open positions at any time (with each position averaging between 5-8% of total portfolio- CONSERVATIVE SYSTEM) Targets and stop losses are set with most signals. Average trade length is 2 weeks.
Limit orders are placed above market price to avoid slippage- its basically a market order, but allows the C2 results to mimic real life.
For the most part I usually try to exit the trade within a few days to a couple of weeks. I am available for any further questions and also make myself available for emailing.
As of April 1, 2006, went to an EOD(after market close) signals.
---As of 2/1/2007 the system will no longer trade Options in the system. If when I am sending the signals, and you are interested in buying an option on the underlying security, email me and I will be more than happy to advise. I only did 4 options trades up to this point, and want to target my system to "stock" traders, since I was getting 99% of all my profits from stocks anyways. If you are interested in my options trading service, click on my other system-spy options.
disclaimer: Past results are not indicative of future results.
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | -1.2 | 0.1 | 12.8 | 14.5 | 10.7 | 41.3 | |||||||
| 2007 | 6.2 | 4.5 | -4.6 | 2.3 | -0.2 | 1.2 | 2.3 | -5.7 | 5.1 | 5.9 | -2.3 | 9.8 | 26.2 |
| 2008 | -1.6 | 12.7 | -6.7 | -0.4 | -0.6 | -3.1 | -2.3 | 3.1 | -8.8 | 6.9 | -0.5 | 3.8 | 0.8 |
| 2009 | -6.0 | -5.4 | 3.0 | -1.5 | -1.2 | -0.8 | -1.7 | 0.7 | -0.2 | -3.7 | -0.3 | -0.7 | -16.7 |
| 2010 | -0.9 | 1.4 | 2.2 | -2.0 | 1.1 | -2.0 | 0.3 | 1.6 | -4.2 | -1.0 | -0.9 | -1.1 | -5.5 |
| 2011 | -0.1 | 2.8 | -0.4 | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | -0.0 | 0.5 | 1.1 | -1.2 | 0.5 | -0.9 | 2.2 |
| 2012 | -0.9 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.6 | -0.5 | 0.2 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -2.1 |
| 2013 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.1 | -0.5 | 0.1 | -0.3 | 0.1 | -0.3 | -0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.2 |
| 2014 | -3.9 | -0.2 | -0.0 | 0.2 | -0.0 | -0.2 | 0.2 | -0.2 | 0.2 | -0.2 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -4.3 |
| 2015 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.1 | -3.1 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | -11.7 | 0.8 | -0.1 | 0.1 | -13.7 |
| 2016 | 0.4 | -0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.0 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.0 | 0.1 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.4 |
| 2017 | -0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.0 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.0 | -0.3 |
| 2018 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | -0.1 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 2019 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -59.1 | -0.0 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -59.5 | |
| 2020 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 1.0 | -1.1 | -0.8 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.4 | -0.1 | -1.2 |
| 2021 | -52.5 | -2730.6 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -1348.9 |
| 2022 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | |
| 2023 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | |
| 2024 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -33.7 | -0.0 | |
| 2025 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | |
| 2026 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -798.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | -798.3 |
Statistics
Overview
| Strategy began | 8/23/2006 |
|---|---|
| Suggested Minimum Capital | $10,000 |
| Age | 244 months |
| What it trades | Stocks |
| # Trades | 525 |
| # Profitable | 244 |
| % Profitable | 46.5% |
| Avg trade duration | 33.2 days |
| Max peak-to-valley drawdown | 100.0% |
| drawdown period | Feb 01, 2021 - Aug 15, 2026 |
| Annual Return (Compounded) | 0.0% |
| Avg win | $154 |
| Avg loss | $2,646 |
Ratios
| W:L ratio | 0.05 |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.23 |
| Sortino Ratio | -0.23 |
| Calmar Ratio | -0.73 |
CORRELATION STATISTICS
| Correlation to SP500 | -0.01 |
|---|---|
| Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life | 490.7% |
| Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu) | -7592.0% |
Return Statistics
| Ann Return (w trading costs) | 0.0% |
|---|---|
| Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant) | 0.0% |
| Return Pcnt Since TOS Status | 0.0% |
| Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees) | 0.0% |
Slump
| Current Slump as Pcnt Equity | — |
|---|---|
| Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life | 0.9% |
Instruments
| Percent Trades Forex | 0.0% |
|---|---|
| Percent Trades Futures | 0.0% |
| Percent Trades Options | 0.0% |
| Percent Trades Stocks | 1.0% |
Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
| Chance of 10% account loss | 100.0% |
|---|---|
| Chance of 20% account loss | 100.0% |
| Chance of 30% account loss | 100.0% |
| Chance of 40% account loss | 0.0% |
| Chance of 50% account loss | 0.0% |
| Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
Automation
| Percentage Signals Automated | 0.0% |
|---|
Popularity
| Popularity (Today) | 0 |
|---|---|
| Popularity (Last 6 weeks) | 0 |
| Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale) | 0 |
Trading Style
| Any stock shorts? 0/1 | 1 |
|---|
Trades-Own-System Certification
| Trades Own System? | 0 |
|---|---|
| TOS percent | 0.0% |
Win / Loss
| Avg Loss | $2,646 |
|---|---|
| Avg Win | $154 |
| # Winners | 244 |
| Sum Trade PL (losers) | $743,620 |
| Sum Trade PL (winners) | $37,617 |
| Num Months Winners | 62 |
| # Losers | 281 |
| % Winners | 46.5% |
Dividends
| Dividends Received in Model Acct | 662 |
|---|
Age
| Num Months filled monthly returns table | 175 |
|---|
Frequency
| Avg Position Time (mins) | 47817.57 |
|---|---|
| Avg Position Time (hrs) | 796.96 |
| Avg Trade Length | 33.20 |
| Last Trade Ago | 5905 |
Regression
| Alpha | 0 |
|---|---|
| Beta | -0.02 |
| Treynor Index | 0 |
Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
| MAE:Equity, average, all trades | 0.01 |
|---|---|
| MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | 0 |
| MAE:Equity, average, losing trades | 0.01 |
| MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| MAE:Equity, average, winning trades | 0 |
| MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades | -1.07 |
| MAE:PL (avg, all trades) | -0.27 |
| MAE:PL (avg, losing trades) | — |
| MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats | 14.54 |
| MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats | 14.21 |
| MAE:PL (avg, winning trades) | — |
| MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades | 0.32 |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades | -1.00 |
| Hold-and-Hope Ratio | -15.70 |
RATIO STATISTICS
| Mean | -0.20 |
|---|---|
| SD | 0.45 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | -0.44 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | -0.43 |
| df | 87 |
| t | -1.18 |
| p | 0.88 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -1.16 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.29 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -1.16 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0.30 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.45 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 0.36 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.15 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.35 |
| Upside SD | 0.13 |
| Downside SD | 0.43 |
| N nonnegative terms | 38 |
| N negative terms | 50 |
| N of observations | 88 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.25 |
| Mean of criterion | -0.20 |
| SD of predictor | 0.35 |
| SD of criterion | 0.45 |
| Covariance | -0.02 |
| r | -0.13 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | -0.16 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.16 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.20 |
| DF error | 86 |
| t(b) | -1.18 |
| p(b) | 0.88 |
| t(a) | -0.91 |
| p(a) | 0.82 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.44 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.11 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.49 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.18 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 1.20 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | -0.16 |
| Mean | -1.31 |
| SD | 3.27 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | -0.40 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | -0.40 |
| df | 87 |
| t | -1.08 |
| p | 0.86 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -1.12 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.33 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -1.12 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0.33 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.40 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 0.04 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.15 |
| Downside part of mean | -1.45 |
| Upside SD | 0.12 |
| Downside SD | 3.27 |
| N nonnegative terms | 38 |
| N negative terms | 50 |
| N of observations | 88 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.19 |
| Mean of criterion | -1.31 |
| SD of predictor | 0.35 |
| SD of criterion | 3.27 |
| Covariance | -0.10 |
| r | -0.09 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | -0.84 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -1.15 |
| Mean Square Error | 10.75 |
| DF error | 86 |
| t(b) | -0.83 |
| p(b) | 0.80 |
| t(a) | -0.93 |
| p(a) | 0.82 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -2.84 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 1.16 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -3.58 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 1.29 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 1.55 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | -1.15 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.81 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.87 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.07 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.16 |
| Mean | -0.11 |
| SD | 0.61 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | -0.19 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | -0.19 |
| df | 1928 |
| t | -0.51 |
| p | 0.51 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.91 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.54 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -0.91 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0.54 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.22 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 2.32 |
| Upside part of mean | 1.18 |
| Downside part of mean | -1.30 |
| Upside SD | 0.33 |
| Downside SD | 0.51 |
| N nonnegative terms | 983 |
| N negative terms | 946 |
| N of observations | 1929 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.39 |
| Mean of criterion | -0.11 |
| SD of predictor | 0.58 |
| SD of criterion | 0.61 |
| Covariance | -0.03 |
| r | -0.07 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | -0.08 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.08 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.37 |
| DF error | 1927 |
| t(b) | -3.16 |
| p(b) | 0.55 |
| t(a) | -0.37 |
| p(a) | 0.51 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.12 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.03 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.52 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.35 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 1.49 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | -0.08 |
| Mean | -1.30 |
| SD | 3.29 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | -0.39 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | -0.39 |
| df | 1928 |
| t | -1.07 |
| p | 0.51 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -1.12 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.33 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -1.12 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0.33 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.40 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 0.35 |
| Upside part of mean | 1.13 |
| Downside part of mean | -2.43 |
| Upside SD | 0.30 |
| Downside SD | 3.28 |
| N nonnegative terms | 983 |
| N negative terms | 946 |
| N of observations | 1929 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.23 |
| Mean of criterion | -1.30 |
| SD of predictor | 0.57 |
| SD of criterion | 3.29 |
| Covariance | -0.01 |
| r | -0.00 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | -0.02 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -1.30 |
| Mean Square Error | 10.86 |
| DF error | 1927 |
| t(b) | -0.13 |
| p(b) | 0.50 |
| t(a) | -1.07 |
| p(a) | 0.52 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.27 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.24 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -3.68 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 1.09 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 77.52 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | -1.30 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.29 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.34 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.01 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.03 |
| Mean | -3.39 |
| SD | 1.57 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | -2.16 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | -2.14 |
| df | 130 |
| t | -1.53 |
| p | 0.57 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -4.94 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.63 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -4.93 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0.64 |
| Sortino ratio | -2.15 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 0.03 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.04 |
| Downside part of mean | -3.43 |
| Upside SD | 0.02 |
| Downside SD | 1.58 |
| N nonnegative terms | 84 |
| N negative terms | 47 |
| N of observations | 131 |
| Mean of predictor | 2.22 |
| Mean of criterion | -3.39 |
| SD of predictor | 0.80 |
| SD of criterion | 1.57 |
| Covariance | 0.05 |
| r | 0.04 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.08 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -3.56 |
| Mean Square Error | 2.48 |
| DF error | 129 |
| t(b) | 0.45 |
| p(b) | 0.47 |
| t(a) | -1.58 |
| p(a) | 0.59 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.27 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.42 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -8.04 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.91 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | -43.27 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | -3.56 |
| Mean | -19.39 |
| SD | 12.51 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | -1.55 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | -1.54 |
| df | 130 |
| t | -1.10 |
| p | 0.55 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -4.33 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.23 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -4.32 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 1.24 |
| Sortino ratio | -1.55 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 0.00 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.04 |
| Downside part of mean | -19.44 |
| Upside SD | 0.02 |
| Downside SD | 12.52 |
| N nonnegative terms | 84 |
| N negative terms | 47 |
| N of observations | 131 |
| Mean of predictor | 1.89 |
| Mean of criterion | -19.39 |
| SD of predictor | 0.82 |
| SD of criterion | 12.51 |
| Covariance | 0.38 |
| r | 0.04 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.58 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -20.48 |
| Mean Square Error | 157.59 |
| DF error | 129 |
| t(b) | 0.43 |
| p(b) | 0.48 |
| t(a) | -1.14 |
| p(a) | 0.56 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -2.09 |
| VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl) | 0.29 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 3.25 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -55.97 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 15.00 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | -33.58 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | -20.48 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.74 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.80 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.02 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.06 |
ORDER STATISTICS
| Number of observations | 88 |
|---|---|
| Minimum | 0.00 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.99 |
| Median | 1.00 |
| Quartile 3 | 1.01 |
| Maximum | 1.28 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.89 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.05 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.02 |
| Number outliers low | 7 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.08 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0.69 |
| Number of outliers high | 8 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.09 |
| Mean of outliers high | 1.10 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 1.30 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.08 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 1.66 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.06 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Number of observations | 1929 |
| Minimum | 0.00 |
| Quartile 1 | 1.00 |
| Median | 1 |
| Quartile 3 | 1.00 |
| Maximum | 1.33 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.98 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.02 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.00 |
| Number outliers low | 272 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.14 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0.97 |
| Number of outliers high | 287 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.15 |
| Mean of outliers high | 1.03 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 1.34 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.01 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.94 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.01 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.19 |
| Number of observations | 131 |
| Minimum | 0.00 |
| Quartile 1 | 1.00 |
| Median | 1 |
| Quartile 3 | 1 |
| Maximum | 1.01 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.95 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.00 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.00 |
| Number outliers low | 21 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.16 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0.92 |
| Number of outliers high | 9 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.07 |
| Mean of outliers high | 1.00 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 2.37 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.00 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 3.88 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.00 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
| Number of observations | 5 |
|---|---|
| Minimum | 0.03 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.04 |
| Median | 0.06 |
| Quartile 3 | 0.31 |
| Maximum | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.04 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.06 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.31 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.00 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.27 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 1 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.20 |
| Mean of outliers high | 1.00 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Number of observations | 15 |
| Minimum | 0.00 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.04 |
| Median | 0.09 |
| Quartile 3 | 0.17 |
| Maximum | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.02 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.07 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.13 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.46 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.13 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 2 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.13 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0.71 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | -0.02 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.41 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.58 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.84 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.79 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 5.31 |
| Number of observations | 1 |
| Minimum | 1.00 |
| Quartile 1 | 1.00 |
| Median | 1.00 |
| Quartile 3 | 1.00 |
| Maximum | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life? | -383883488 |
| Max Equity Drawdown (num days) | 2021 |
| Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative | 1.0% |
COMBINED STATISTICS
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | -0.14 |
|---|---|
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | -0.73 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | -0.73 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | -0.73 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | -0.84 |
| j156mfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| j157mfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | -0.14 |
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | -0.73 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | -0.73 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | -1.58 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | -2.11 |
| j313dfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| j314dfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | -2.00 |
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | -1 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | -1.00 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 0 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | -1.24 |
Trading record
Placed 135 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.
| Symbol | Side | Qty | Opened | Closed | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAG | long | 200 | Jun 28, 2010 | Jul 14, 2010 | $76 |
| PGI | long | 300 | Jun 28, 2010 | Jul 14, 2010 | ($114) |
| CLDX | long | 500 | Aug 21, 2009 | Mar 25, 2010 | $380 |
| AMRI | long | 500 | Aug 20, 2009 | Oct 27, 2009 | $340 |
| PCS | long | 150 | Aug 25, 2009 | Sep 2, 2009 | ($62) |
| CALM | long | 120 | Mar 12, 2009 | Mar 17, 2009 | $176 |
| OMX | long | 500 | Mar 12, 2009 | Mar 16, 2009 | $220 |
| SM | long | 100 | Mar 12, 2009 | Mar 16, 2009 | $32 |
| SYNA | long | 60 | Mar 4, 2009 | Mar 12, 2009 | $243 |
| MIC | long | 1000 | Mar 4, 2009 | Mar 10, 2009 | $265 |
| NATI | long | 104 | Mar 4, 2009 | Mar 9, 2009 | ($63) |
| HXM | long | 125 | Mar 4, 2009 | Mar 5, 2009 | ($178) |
| AYI | long | 70 | Mar 4, 2009 | Mar 5, 2009 | ($62) |
| AM | long | 600 | Mar 4, 2009 | Mar 5, 2009 | ($65) |
| ANDS | short | 140 | Jan 29, 2009 | Feb 6, 2009 | ($84) |
| ESLR | long | 1400 | Jan 28, 2009 | Feb 6, 2009 | ($509) |
| TONE | long | 350 | Jan 29, 2009 | Feb 3, 2009 | ($91) |
| TXT | long | 220 | Jan 30, 2009 | Feb 2, 2009 | ($187) |
| HPY | long | 350 | Jan 28, 2009 | Feb 2, 2009 | ($67) |
| BOOM | long | 160 | Jan 27, 2009 | Feb 2, 2009 | ($33) |
| SFI | long | 700 | Jan 29, 2009 | Jan 29, 2009 | ($138) |
| LZB | long | 900 | Jan 29, 2009 | Jan 29, 2009 | ($23) |
| THMD | long | 250 | Jan 29, 2009 | Jan 29, 2009 | ($33) |
| BNE | long | 303 | Jan 28, 2009 | Jan 29, 2009 | $198 |
| LNY | long | 320 | Jan 22, 2009 | Jan 27, 2009 | $138 |
| UCBH | long | 800 | Jan 22, 2009 | Jan 23, 2009 | ($557) |
| INWK | long | 300 | Jan 20, 2009 | Jan 20, 2009 | ($6) |
| AF | long | 120 | Jan 14, 2009 | Jan 14, 2009 | ($48) |
| USB | long | 100 | Jan 14, 2009 | Jan 14, 2009 | ($24) |
| ESS | long | 30 | Jan 14, 2009 | Jan 14, 2009 | ($42) |
Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.