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FridayTrader

Stocks · Started Aug 2006

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.8%
Max Drawdown
64.2%
Trades
62
Win Trades
77.4%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
9.1%

About this strategy







Dear Perspective Client,

FridayTrader.com was developed to be a system that an average person can use. John Swartz, the architect behind FridayTrader.com, developed a system that answers the simple question:
"What is the best stock to own this week".
His background as a retired software entrepreneur and trained nuclear physicist gave him some unique advantage in developing a system to provided a system with a target return of 60% a year.
Mr. Swartz uses this system to manage his own money and has been very successful and now how let us market his system via the internet.

To be blunt, the system calculations are proprietary and will not be released to the public. This system has a threshold of about 200 million dollars, until the system itself would start to effect the trades.

We believe that if you research, as your should, the companies recommended here, the value proposition will be obvious to you. We thank you for evaluating our system and look forward to being profitable together.

Sincerely,

FridayTrader.com




Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20066.23.615.711.8-2.838.3
20070.61.5-2.520.34.625.44.66.4-5.05.71.22.482.1
20087.2-5.24.59.08.33.4-15.6-13.7-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.6-7.6
2009-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.64.2-20.9-32.3-1.0-1.2-1.1-1.1-48.1
20100.00.00.00.00.00.1-0.10.20.00.00.0-0.00.1
20110.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.0-0.00.0-0.00.00.00.0-2.50.00.0-2.5
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began8/5/2006
Suggested Minimum Capital$9,984
Age245 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades62
# Profitable48
% Profitable77.4%
Avg trade duration8.4 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown64.2%
drawdown periodJune 30, 2008 - Oct 01, 2015
Annual Return (Compounded)0.8%
Avg win$751
Avg loss$2,247

Ratios

W:L ratio1.19
Sharpe Ratio-0.02
Sortino Ratio-0.03
Calmar Ratio0.04

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.04
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life497.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-480.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.8%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)2.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity178.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$2,247
Avg Win$750
# Winners48
Sum Trade PL (losers)$31,458
Sum Trade PL (winners)$36,024
Num Months Winners26
# Losers14
% Winners77.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct1300

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table242

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)12108.40
Avg Position Time (hrs)201.81
Avg Trade Length8.40
Last Trade Ago6245

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.03
Treynor Index-0.02

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.05
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.14
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.14
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades12.50
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.12
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats16.48
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats52.32
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.62
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.10
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.08

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.07
SD0.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.24
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.24
df79
t0.63
p0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.00
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.52
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.00
Sortino ratio0.33
Upside Potential Ratio1.23
Upside part of mean0.28
Downside part of mean-0.20
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.23
N nonnegative terms66
N negative terms14
N of observations80
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.07
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.31
Covariance0.01
r0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error78
t(b)0.84
p(b)0.20
t(a)0.43
p(a)0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.29
Treynor index (mean / b)0.64
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
Mean0.02
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.07
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.07
df79
t0.18
p0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.83
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.69
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.83
Sortino ratio0.09
Upside Potential Ratio0.96
Upside part of mean0.26
Downside part of mean-0.24
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.27
N nonnegative terms66
N negative terms14
N of observations80
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.02
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance0.01
r0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.00
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error78
t(b)0.79
p(b)0.22
t(a)0.03
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.27
Treynor index (mean / b)0.20
Jensen alpha (a)0.00
VaR(95%)0.14
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.18
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean0.26
SD0.70
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.37
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.37
df1762
t0.95
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.12
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.39
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.12
Sortino ratio0.59
Upside Potential Ratio3.94
Upside part of mean1.70
Downside part of mean-1.44
Upside SD0.55
Downside SD0.43
N nonnegative terms1531
N negative terms232
N of observations1763
Mean of predictor0.42
Mean of criterion0.26
SD of predictor0.64
SD of criterion0.70
Covariance0.06
r0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.20
Mean Square Error0.48
DF error1761
t(b)5.59
p(b)0.42
t(a)0.73
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.72
Treynor index (mean / b)1.79
Jensen alpha (a)0.20
Mean0.02
SD0.68
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.03
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.03
df1762
t0.09
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.72
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.79
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.72
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.79
Sortino ratio0.05
Upside Potential Ratio3.23
Upside part of mean1.57
Downside part of mean-1.55
Upside SD0.47
Downside SD0.49
N nonnegative terms1531
N negative terms232
N of observations1763
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion0.02
SD of predictor0.62
SD of criterion0.68
Covariance0.06
r0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.16
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0.45
DF error1761
t(b)5.99
p(b)0.41
t(a)-0.05
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.50
Treynor index (mean / b)0.15
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor2.19
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor1.05
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.74
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.89
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations80
Minimum0.60
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.26
Mean of quarter 10.93
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.09
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low11
Percentage of outliers low0.14
Mean of outliers low0.88
Number of outliers high19
Percentage of outliers high0.24
Mean of outliers high1.10
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-8.19
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.40
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.25
Number of observations1763
Minimum0.60
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.68
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low232
Percentage of outliers low0.13
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high277
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.94
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.10
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.09
Quartile 10.12
Median0.18
Quartile 30.26
Maximum0.53
Mean of quarter 10.10
Mean of quarter 20.18
Mean of quarter 30.26
Mean of quarter 40.53
Inter Quartile Range0.14
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.53
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations20
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.07
Median0.13
Quartile 30.24
Maximum0.53
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.11
Mean of quarter 30.19
Mean of quarter 40.38
Inter Quartile Range0.17
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high0.53
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.83
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.43
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.47
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.47
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.42
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.47
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-400029824
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)2649
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.03
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.02
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.04
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.04
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.13
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.02
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.02
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.04
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.06
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.28
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 6 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
FAZ long9Jul 20, 2009Aug 7, 2009($10,966)
FAZ long5Jun 18, 2009Jun 25, 2009$1,080
DIOD long2000Aug 11, 2008Aug 19, 2008($3,605)
CEDC long500Jul 29, 2008Jul 29, 2008$915
STLD long1000Jul 14, 2008Jul 29, 2008($3,715)
TNK long1000Jul 2, 2008Jul 3, 2008($2,355)
CMI long500Jun 30, 2008Jul 2, 2008$795
LHCG long1000Jun 27, 2008Jun 30, 2008$1,025
RAS long111Jun 20, 2008Jun 23, 2008$358
NFG long500May 27, 2008Jun 18, 2008($840)
ALOG long500May 15, 2008May 22, 2008$10
NNBR long1000May 12, 2008May 13, 2008$765
DNR long1000Apr 28, 2008May 9, 2008$485
MANH long2000Apr 29, 2008Apr 29, 2008$511
MT long299.523010254Apr 21, 2008Apr 23, 2008$362
SFY long499.204986572Apr 18, 2008Apr 18, 2008$200
BCO long199.682006836Apr 9, 2008Apr 18, 2008$180
CXG long399.364013672Apr 15, 2008Apr 16, 2008$775
WW long199.682006836Mar 31, 2008Apr 2, 2008$529
PWRD long199.682006836Mar 31, 2008Apr 2, 2008$298
TSL long1997Mar 17, 2008Mar 27, 2008$2,976
SSW long998.408996582Feb 4, 2008Mar 17, 2008($3,095)
TVL long998.408996582Jan 22, 2008Jan 25, 2008$1,517
ASR long499.204986572Oct 30, 2007Jan 8, 2008$934
ATN long998.408996582Oct 22, 2007Oct 25, 2007$1,538
AGU long698.885986328Sep 24, 2007Sep 28, 2007$601
PCR long698.885986328Aug 13, 2007Sep 24, 2007($1,705)
PFBC long200Jul 30, 2007Aug 13, 2007$1,079
GRNB long1008Jul 23, 2007Jul 30, 2007($1,177)
GSX long998.408996582Jul 23, 2007Jul 30, 2007($369)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.