blak swann
- hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
- 0.0%
- Max Drawdown
- 100.0%
- Trades
- 239
- Win Trades
- 76.2%
- Profit Factor
- 0.70
- Win Months
- 2.5%
About this strategy
A WORD OF WARNING:
This system took Amaranth-style losses when crude oil plummeted from it s fearful heights during (and notably despite) the Israel/Hezbollah war. Losses were due to human and technical errors combined, followed by emotional trading, so that what had begun as a serious voyager was wrecked in the first storm.
Originally the system traded only crude oil miNY futures contracts -- a stricture imposed upon the trader by his trainer. The trader decided to take only long positions as the general market was in a powerful bull trend. By taking only long positions, the trader reasoned, he would impose more discipline on himself. This idea came from the book "Birdwatching in Lion Country" which you should avoid.
Suddenly, despite Middle Eastern war and Nigerian chaos, the bull market ended. The trader could easily smell that something was wrong. In fact, the time to sell or at least quit the market was when crude did not spike upon the breakout of serious war by Israel against Lebanon, and the trader remarked this several times but was stubborn when it came to action. It was here that the trader learned the hard way that "buy the rumor, sell the news" can even become more useful as the gravity of the news increases. The markets dour reaction to seemingly bullish events; technical price failure illustrated by a massive double top; and market sentiment that can only be described as ferociously bullish (as almost bears had been fully whipped tarred feathered and in many cases fired) were all signs to beware, to tread lightly and to prepare to reverse. Exuberance in the markets is usually the period of greatest danger!
Remember, though, that the trader had decided only to take long positions! Only once he could publicly tell others (including his boss) that the run was over, that he had been wrong, could he take on short positions. Otherwise, he would have to break his methodology, and take short positions in what he still forced himself to believe was a bull market. He traded emotionally from there, waiting waiting waiting for the market to turn, and the rest in clear in the charts.
So, after the storm, the trader seeks his return to Ithaca. A tortured path, not taken as seriously as before, in fact side bets mainly to vent steam while he trades for real elsewhere. So beware.
This system took Amaranth-style losses when crude oil plummeted from it s fearful heights during (and notably despite) the Israel/Hezbollah war. Losses were due to human and technical errors combined, followed by emotional trading, so that what had begun as a serious voyager was wrecked in the first storm.
Originally the system traded only crude oil miNY futures contracts -- a stricture imposed upon the trader by his trainer. The trader decided to take only long positions as the general market was in a powerful bull trend. By taking only long positions, the trader reasoned, he would impose more discipline on himself. This idea came from the book "Birdwatching in Lion Country" which you should avoid.
Suddenly, despite Middle Eastern war and Nigerian chaos, the bull market ended. The trader could easily smell that something was wrong. In fact, the time to sell or at least quit the market was when crude did not spike upon the breakout of serious war by Israel against Lebanon, and the trader remarked this several times but was stubborn when it came to action. It was here that the trader learned the hard way that "buy the rumor, sell the news" can even become more useful as the gravity of the news increases. The markets dour reaction to seemingly bullish events; technical price failure illustrated by a massive double top; and market sentiment that can only be described as ferociously bullish (as almost bears had been fully whipped tarred feathered and in many cases fired) were all signs to beware, to tread lightly and to prepare to reverse. Exuberance in the markets is usually the period of greatest danger!
Remember, though, that the trader had decided only to take long positions! Only once he could publicly tell others (including his boss) that the run was over, that he had been wrong, could he take on short positions. Otherwise, he would have to break his methodology, and take short positions in what he still forced himself to believe was a bull market. He traded emotionally from there, waiting waiting waiting for the market to turn, and the rest in clear in the charts.
So, after the storm, the trader seeks his return to Ithaca. A tortured path, not taken as seriously as before, in fact side bets mainly to vent steam while he trades for real elsewhere. So beware.
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 18.0 | -59.8 | -9.7 | 20.8 | -24.0 | -15.0 | -66.6 | ||||||
| 2007 | 2.5 | -15.3 | -78.6 | 236.6 | 77.7 | 29.3 | -76.2 | -349.5 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.6 | 0.0 | -185.8 |
| 2008 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -49.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2009 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2010 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | |
| 2011 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2012 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2013 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2014 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2015 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2016 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2017 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2018 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2019 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| 2020 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2021 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2022 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2023 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2024 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2025 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2026 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Statistics
Overview
| Strategy began | 7/21/2006 |
|---|---|
| Suggested Minimum Capital | $100,000 |
| Age | 245 months |
| What it trades | Futures |
| # Trades | 239 |
| # Profitable | 182 |
| % Profitable | 76.2% |
| Avg trade duration | 1.2 days |
| Max peak-to-valley drawdown | 100.0% |
| drawdown period | March 02, 2007 - March 05, 2007 |
| Annual Return (Compounded) | 0.0% |
| Avg win | $1,102 |
| Avg loss | $5,147 |
Ratios
| W:L ratio | 0.68 |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.38 |
| Sortino Ratio | 0.70 |
| Calmar Ratio | -0.32 |
CORRELATION STATISTICS
| Correlation to SP500 | -0.17 |
|---|---|
| Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life | 514.7% |
| Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu) | -663.5% |
Return Statistics
| Ann Return (w trading costs) | 0.0% |
|---|---|
| Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant) | 0.0% |
| Return Pcnt Since TOS Status | 0.0% |
| Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees) | -12.2% |
Slump
| Current Slump as Pcnt Equity | — |
|---|---|
| Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life | 1.0% |
Instruments
| Percent Trades Forex | 0.1% |
|---|---|
| Percent Trades Futures | 0.9% |
| Percent Trades Options | 0.0% |
| Percent Trades Stocks | 0.0% |
Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
| Chance of 10% account loss | 100.0% |
|---|---|
| Chance of 20% account loss | 100.0% |
| Chance of 30% account loss | 100.0% |
| Chance of 40% account loss | 100.0% |
| Chance of 50% account loss | 100.0% |
| Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 100.0% |
| Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 100.0% |
| Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 100.0% |
| Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 100.0% |
| Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 100.0% |
Automation
| Percentage Signals Automated | 0.0% |
|---|
Popularity
| Popularity (Today) | 0 |
|---|---|
| Popularity (Last 6 weeks) | 0 |
| Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale) | 0 |
Trading Style
| Any stock shorts? 0/1 | 0 |
|---|
Trades-Own-System Certification
| Trades Own System? | 0 |
|---|---|
| TOS percent | 0.0% |
Win / Loss
| Avg Loss | $5,147 |
|---|---|
| Avg Win | $1,102 |
| # Winners | 182 |
| Sum Trade PL (losers) | $293,381 |
| Sum Trade PL (winners) | $200,614 |
| Num Months Winners | 6 |
| # Losers | 57 |
| % Winners | 76.2% |
Dividends
| Dividends Received in Model Acct | 0 |
|---|
Age
| Num Months filled monthly returns table | 14 |
|---|
Frequency
| Avg Position Time (mins) | 1748.05 |
|---|---|
| Avg Position Time (hrs) | 29.13 |
| Avg Trade Length | 1.20 |
| Last Trade Ago | 6967 |
Regression
| Alpha | 0 |
|---|---|
| Beta | -3.45 |
| Treynor Index | 0 |
Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
| MAE:Equity, average, all trades | 0.05 |
|---|---|
| MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | 0.02 |
| MAE:Equity, average, losing trades | 0.11 |
| MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| MAE:Equity, average, winning trades | 0.04 |
| MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades | -4.99 |
| MAE:PL (avg, all trades) | 2.03 |
| MAE:PL (avg, losing trades) | — |
| MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats | 36.19 |
| MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats | 74.66 |
| MAE:PL (avg, winning trades) | — |
| MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades | 1.50 |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades | -1.20 |
| Hold-and-Hope Ratio | -0.19 |
RATIO STATISTICS
| Mean | -0.15 |
|---|---|
| SD | 0.55 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | -0.28 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | -0.27 |
| df | 79 |
| t | -0.71 |
| p | 0.76 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -1.04 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.48 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -1.03 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0.49 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.34 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 0.53 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.24 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.39 |
| Upside SD | 0.31 |
| Downside SD | 0.45 |
| N nonnegative terms | 67 |
| N negative terms | 13 |
| N of observations | 80 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.18 |
| Mean of criterion | -0.15 |
| SD of predictor | 0.23 |
| SD of criterion | 0.55 |
| Covariance | -0.00 |
| r | -0.00 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | -0.00 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.15 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.30 |
| DF error | 78 |
| t(b) | -0.00 |
| p(b) | 0.50 |
| t(a) | -0.69 |
| p(a) | 0.75 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.53 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.53 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.59 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.28 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 426.10 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | -0.15 |
| Mean | -0.37 |
| SD | 0.73 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | -0.50 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | -0.49 |
| df | 79 |
| t | -1.29 |
| p | 0.90 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -1.26 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.27 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -1.26 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0.27 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.53 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 0.29 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.20 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.57 |
| Upside SD | 0.25 |
| Downside SD | 0.69 |
| N nonnegative terms | 67 |
| N negative terms | 13 |
| N of observations | 80 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.15 |
| Mean of criterion | -0.37 |
| SD of predictor | 0.23 |
| SD of criterion | 0.73 |
| Covariance | 0.01 |
| r | 0.05 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.16 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.39 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.55 |
| DF error | 78 |
| t(b) | 0.45 |
| p(b) | 0.33 |
| t(a) | -1.34 |
| p(a) | 0.91 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.55 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.87 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.97 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.19 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | -2.28 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | -0.39 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.32 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.37 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.03 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.08 |
| Mean | 2.50 |
| SD | 3.37 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.74 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.74 |
| df | 1765 |
| t | 1.93 |
| p | 0.47 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.01 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.50 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -0.01 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 1.50 |
| Sortino ratio | 2.54 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 4.62 |
| Upside part of mean | 4.56 |
| Downside part of mean | -2.06 |
| Upside SD | 3.22 |
| Downside SD | 0.99 |
| N nonnegative terms | 1584 |
| N negative terms | 182 |
| N of observations | 1766 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.31 |
| Mean of criterion | 2.50 |
| SD of predictor | 0.57 |
| SD of criterion | 3.37 |
| Covariance | -0.02 |
| r | -0.01 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | -0.07 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 2.52 |
| Mean Square Error | 11.35 |
| DF error | 1764 |
| t(b) | -0.49 |
| p(b) | 0.51 |
| t(a) | 1.94 |
| p(a) | 0.48 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.34 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.21 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.02 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 5.07 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | -36.31 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 2.52 |
| Mean | -0.36 |
| SD | 2.26 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | -0.16 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | -0.16 |
| df | 1765 |
| t | -0.42 |
| p | 0.51 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.92 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.59 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -0.92 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0.59 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.22 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 1.61 |
| Upside part of mean | 2.64 |
| Downside part of mean | -3.01 |
| Upside SD | 1.55 |
| Downside SD | 1.64 |
| N nonnegative terms | 1584 |
| N negative terms | 182 |
| N of observations | 1766 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.15 |
| Mean of criterion | -0.36 |
| SD of predictor | 0.58 |
| SD of criterion | 2.26 |
| Covariance | -0.02 |
| r | -0.01 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | -0.05 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.35 |
| Mean Square Error | 5.09 |
| DF error | 1764 |
| t(b) | -0.56 |
| p(b) | 0.51 |
| t(a) | -0.41 |
| p(a) | 0.50 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.23 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.13 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -2.06 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 1.35 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 6.98 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | -0.35 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.21 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.25 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.00 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.01 |
| Mean | 0 |
| SD | 0 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0 |
| df | 0 |
| t | 0 |
| p | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0 |
| Sortino ratio | 0 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 0 |
| Upside part of mean | 0 |
| Downside part of mean | 0 |
| Upside SD | 0 |
| Downside SD | 0 |
| N nonnegative terms | 131 |
| N negative terms | 0 |
| N of observations | 131 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.89 |
| Mean of criterion | 0 |
| SD of predictor | 0.66 |
| SD of criterion | 0 |
| Covariance | 0 |
| r | 0 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0 |
| Mean Square Error | 0 |
| DF error | 0 |
| t(b) | 0 |
| p(b) | 0 |
| t(a) | 0 |
| p(a) | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0 |
| Mean | 0 |
| SD | 0 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0 |
| df | 0 |
| t | 0 |
| p | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0 |
| Sortino ratio | 0 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 0 |
| Upside part of mean | 0 |
| Downside part of mean | 0 |
| Upside SD | 0 |
| Downside SD | 0 |
| N nonnegative terms | 131 |
| N negative terms | 0 |
| N of observations | 131 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.66 |
| Mean of criterion | 0 |
| SD of predictor | 0.71 |
| SD of criterion | 0 |
| Covariance | 0 |
| r | 0 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0 |
| Mean Square Error | 0 |
| DF error | 0 |
| t(b) | 0 |
| p(b) | 0 |
| t(a) | 0 |
| p(a) | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0 |
| VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl) | 0.21 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0 |
| VaR(95%) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0 |
ORDER STATISTICS
| Number of observations | 80 |
|---|---|
| Minimum | 0.32 |
| Quartile 1 | 1 |
| Median | 1 |
| Quartile 3 | 1 |
| Maximum | 1.69 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.87 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.08 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0 |
| Number outliers low | 13 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.16 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0.80 |
| Number of outliers high | 11 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.14 |
| Mean of outliers high | 1.14 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.51 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.00 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.01 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | -0.12 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.13 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.24 |
| Number of observations | 1766 |
| Minimum | 0.16 |
| Quartile 1 | 1 |
| Median | 1 |
| Quartile 3 | 1 |
| Maximum | 6.27 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.97 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.07 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0 |
| Number outliers low | 182 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.10 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0.92 |
| Number of outliers high | 193 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.11 |
| Mean of outliers high | 1.16 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 1.52 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.00 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Number of observations | 131 |
| Minimum | 1 |
| Quartile 1 | 1 |
| Median | 1 |
| Quartile 3 | 1 |
| Maximum | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
| Number of observations | 1 |
|---|---|
| Minimum | 0.95 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.95 |
| Median | 0.95 |
| Quartile 3 | 0.95 |
| Maximum | 0.95 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Number of observations | 5 |
| Minimum | 0.01 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.01 |
| Median | 0.23 |
| Quartile 3 | 0.53 |
| Maximum | 0.96 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.01 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.23 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.53 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.96 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.52 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Number of observations | 0 |
| Minimum | 0 |
| Quartile 1 | 0 |
| Median | 0 |
| Quartile 3 | 0 |
| Maximum | 0 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life? | -387001152 |
| Max Equity Drawdown (num days) | 3 |
| Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative | 0.5% |
COMBINED STATISTICS
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | -0.14 |
|---|---|
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | -0.31 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | -0.32 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 0 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | -0.82 |
| j156mfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| j157mfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | -0.14 |
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | -0.30 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | -0.32 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | -0.32 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | -1.22 |
| j313dfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| j314dfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0 |
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 0 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 0 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 0 |
Trading record
Placed 107 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.
| Symbol | Side | Qty | Opened | Closed | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | long | 1000 | Jan 23, 2007 | Aug 16, 2007 | ($506) |
| US H7 | long | 10 | Jan 23, 2007 | Jan 24, 2007 | $860 |
| ER2 H7 | short | 2 | Jan 23, 2007 | Jan 23, 2007 | $204 |
| QM H7 | long | 10 | Jan 23, 2007 | Jan 23, 2007 | $545 |
| US H7 | long | 10 | Jan 23, 2007 | Jan 23, 2007 | $230 |
| QM H7 | short | 10 | Jan 23, 2007 | Jan 23, 2007 | $45 |
| US H7 | short | 15 | Jan 22, 2007 | Jan 23, 2007 | $2,380 |
| USD/JPY | long | 1000 | Jan 18, 2007 | Jan 19, 2007 | $3 |
| ER2 H7 | long | 20 | Jan 18, 2007 | Jan 18, 2007 | ($15,660) |
| ER2 H7 | long | 5 | Jan 18, 2007 | Jan 18, 2007 | $10 |
| ZG G7 | long | 5 | Jan 18, 2007 | Jan 18, 2007 | $510 |
| QM G7 | short | 5 | Jan 17, 2007 | Jan 18, 2007 | ($415) |
| ER2 H7 | long | 1 | Jan 17, 2007 | Jan 18, 2007 | $192 |
| AUD/JPY | long | 1000 | Jan 18, 2007 | Jan 18, 2007 | $17 |
| YM H7 | long | 20 | Jan 17, 2007 | Jan 17, 2007 | ($460) |
| QM G7 | long | 5 | Jan 17, 2007 | Jan 17, 2007 | ($40) |
| QM G7 | short | 5 | Jan 17, 2007 | Jan 17, 2007 | $585 |
| ZG G7 | long | 5 | Jan 17, 2007 | Jan 17, 2007 | $210 |
| YM H7 | short | 5 | Jan 17, 2007 | Jan 17, 2007 | ($15) |
| YM H7 | short | 10 | Jan 17, 2007 | Jan 17, 2007 | ($30) |
| ZG G7 | short | 5 | Jan 17, 2007 | Jan 17, 2007 | ($390) |
| QM G7 | short | 10 | Jan 17, 2007 | Jan 17, 2007 | $670 |
| ZG G7 | short | 10 | Jan 17, 2007 | Jan 17, 2007 | ($3,080) |
| QM H7 | short | 10 | Jan 16, 2007 | Jan 17, 2007 | $1,045 |
| QM G7 | short | 20 | Jan 16, 2007 | Jan 17, 2007 | $3,465 |
| YM H7 | long | 2 | Jan 16, 2007 | Jan 16, 2007 | $124 |
| ZG G7 | long | 2 | Jan 16, 2007 | Jan 16, 2007 | $24 |
| GC G7 | long | 2 | Jan 16, 2007 | Jan 16, 2007 | $44 |
| EUR/USD | long | 1000 | Jan 15, 2007 | Jan 16, 2007 | $4,700 |
| EUR/JPY | short | 590 | Jan 14, 2007 | Jan 15, 2007 | ($23) |
Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.