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Longstoch-ST

Stocks · Started Jul 2006

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
4.6%
Max Drawdown
Trades
109
Win Trades
73.4%
Profit Factor
1.30
Win Months
6.2%

About this strategy


Longstoch-ST
is a remarkably easy to manage script-driven EOD swing trading system that has consistently outperformed its respective Index with a comparable standard deviation of quarterly returns, maintaining ~50% equity exposure while trading a maximum of 2 positions.


System Characteristics:


- trades short-term, oversold NASDAQ-100 stocks using a stochastic-based proprietary algorithm
- optimal risk vs reward is achieved by trading two positions max and maintaining 50% average market exposure
- deep liquidity stocks insure rapid large order fills and neutral slippage impact (C2 Realism Factor is conservative)
- allows for wide range of account sizes with effective position scaling to as low as 3K
- trade alerts are issued between 9PM-1AM EST prior to market open
- manual operation requires no more than 5 min. per day
- C2 results based on 1X leveraging, no margin
- average recovery rate 3X that of Index
- high CAGR, low GSD


Backtest Results:


5 1/2 year backtest results (as of 07.07.06) based on 10K of starting capital with a maximum of 2 simultaneous positions investing 50% equity each (assuming $16 round-trip commission, 2 units slippage, mixed lot orders, 4.75% cash rate):

2.14 sharpe ratio
75.4% annualized return (26% SD)
25.7% max drawdown
81.75% winning trades
50.32% exposure
70 avg. trades per year
3.36 avg. bars held


Disclaimer:


Please note that the above results represent annual benchmark performance assuming a normal luck coefficient. Since its Nov. 05 inception, Longstoch-ST has traded well within its 5 1/2 and 12 year annualized backtest return envelope. As with any trading product, however, strength and consistency of past performance in no way guarantees any level of future performance.

Feel free to contact me with any inquiries.










































Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2006-0.75.06.54.311.23.032.7
20071.74.70.2-4.81.04.5-5.82.01.39.4-7.07.513.9
2008-10.4-10.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-19.9
20090.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.0-0.0
20100.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.00.02.82.8
20110.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began7/7/2006
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age246 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades109
# Profitable80
% Profitable73.4%
Avg trade duration5.3 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown
drawdown period
Annual return (compounded)1.3%
Avg win$1,615
Avg loss$3,519

Ratios

W:L ratio1.30
Sharpe Ratio-0.12
Sortino Ratio-0.17
Calmar Ratio0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.06
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life503.6%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-3.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)4.6%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)1.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity22.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$3,519
Avg Win$1,615
# Winners80
Sum Trade PL (losers)$102,059
Sum Trade PL (winners)$129,173
Num Months Winners23
# Losers29
% Winners73.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct3351

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table243

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)7666.30
Avg Position Time (hrs)127.77
Avg Trade Length5.30
Last Trade Ago6768

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.02
Treynor Index-0.10

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.08
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.05
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades11.92
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.20
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats67.35
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats27.75
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.76
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.67
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.08

RATIO STATISTICS

a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.04
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.05

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Max Equity Drawdown (num days)60
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

Trading record

Placed 16 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
LVLT long1813Feb 19, 2008Feb 25, 2008($7,620)
SEPR long2810Feb 13, 2008Feb 25, 2008($8,098)
MSFT long2480Feb 7, 2008Feb 8, 2008$1,508
LINTA long4025Dec 28, 2007Jan 25, 2008($16,991)
JNPR long2750Jan 24, 2008Jan 25, 2008$4,643
MCHP long2430Jan 3, 2008Jan 17, 2008($4,889)
MRVL long5710Dec 28, 2007Dec 31, 2007$1,594
CDNS long4565Dec 21, 2007Dec 26, 2007$725
PTEN long3850Dec 20, 2007Dec 26, 2007$2,883
MICC long665Dec 14, 2007Dec 21, 2007$1,518
CMCSA long4275Dec 12, 2007Dec 20, 2007($219)
RIMM long730Dec 6, 2007Dec 7, 2007$3,849
WYNN long600Dec 4, 2007Dec 5, 2007$2,161
XLNX long3300Nov 28, 2007Dec 3, 2007($459)
IACI long2590Nov 20, 2007Nov 29, 2007$1,756
CTXS long1925Nov 21, 2007Nov 26, 2007$1,400
VMED long3530Oct 31, 2007Nov 19, 2007($12,254)
CHRW long1620Nov 5, 2007Nov 19, 2007($1,625)
BEAS long4550Oct 29, 2007Nov 2, 2007$1,497
IACI long2775Oct 25, 2007Oct 30, 2007$1,521
EBAY long2120Oct 24, 2007Oct 26, 2007$1,521
INFY long6320Oct 17, 2007Oct 23, 2007($466)
WFMI long1580Oct 22, 2007Oct 23, 2007$1,512
VMED long3230Oct 17, 2007Oct 18, 2007$1,513
NTAP long2820Oct 4, 2007Oct 5, 2007$1,461
SEPR long2650Sep 27, 2007Oct 3, 2007$128
AKAM long2435Sep 26, 2007Oct 2, 2007$1,456
VMED long3125Sep 12, 2007Sep 18, 2007$1,401
MNST long4300Sep 13, 2007Sep 17, 2007$1,414
QCOM long1930Sep 11, 2007Sep 12, 2007$1,920

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.