Longstoch-ST
- hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
- 4.6%
- Max Drawdown
- —
- Trades
- 109
- Win Trades
- 73.4%
- Profit Factor
- 1.30
- Win Months
- 6.2%
About this strategy
Longstoch-ST
is a remarkably easy to manage script-driven EOD swing trading system that has consistently outperformed its respective Index with a comparable standard deviation of quarterly returns, maintaining ~50% equity exposure while trading a maximum of 2 positions.
System Characteristics:
- trades short-term, oversold NASDAQ-100 stocks using a stochastic-based proprietary algorithm
- optimal risk vs reward is achieved by trading two positions max and maintaining 50% average market exposure
- deep liquidity stocks insure rapid large order fills and neutral slippage impact (C2 Realism Factor is conservative)
- allows for wide range of account sizes with effective position scaling to as low as 3K
- trade alerts are issued between 9PM-1AM EST prior to market open
- manual operation requires no more than 5 min. per day
- C2 results based on 1X leveraging, no margin
- average recovery rate 3X that of Index
- high CAGR, low GSD
Backtest Results:
5 1/2 year backtest results (as of 07.07.06) based on 10K of starting capital with a maximum of 2 simultaneous positions investing 50% equity each (assuming $16 round-trip commission, 2 units slippage, mixed lot orders, 4.75% cash rate):
2.14 sharpe ratio
75.4% annualized return (26% SD)
25.7% max drawdown
81.75% winning trades
50.32% exposure
70 avg. trades per year
3.36 avg. bars held
Disclaimer:
Please note that the above results represent annual benchmark performance assuming a normal luck coefficient. Since its Nov. 05 inception, Longstoch-ST has traded well within its 5 1/2 and 12 year annualized backtest return envelope. As with any trading product, however, strength and consistency of past performance in no way guarantees any level of future performance.
Feel free to contact me with any inquiries.
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | -0.7 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 11.2 | 3.0 | 32.7 | ||||||
| 2007 | 1.7 | 4.7 | 0.2 | -4.8 | 1.0 | 4.5 | -5.8 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 9.4 | -7.0 | 7.5 | 13.9 |
| 2008 | -10.4 | -10.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -19.9 |
| 2009 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 |
| 2010 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| 2011 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2012 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2013 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2014 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2015 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2016 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2017 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2018 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2019 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2020 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2021 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2022 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2023 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2024 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Statistics
Overview
| Strategy began | 7/7/2006 |
|---|---|
| Suggested Minimum Capital | $100,000 |
| Age | 246 months |
| What it trades | Stocks |
| # Trades | 109 |
| # Profitable | 80 |
| % Profitable | 73.4% |
| Avg trade duration | 5.3 days |
| Max peak-to-valley drawdown | — |
| drawdown period | — |
| Annual return (compounded) | 1.3% |
| Avg win | $1,615 |
| Avg loss | $3,519 |
Ratios
| W:L ratio | 1.30 |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.12 |
| Sortino Ratio | -0.17 |
| Calmar Ratio | 0 |
CORRELATION STATISTICS
| Correlation to SP500 | 0.06 |
|---|---|
| Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life | 503.6% |
| Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu) | -3.0% |
Return Statistics
| Ann Return (w trading costs) | 4.6% |
|---|---|
| Return Pcnt Since TOS Status | 0.0% |
| Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees) | 1.3% |
Slump
| Current Slump as Pcnt Equity | 22.2% |
|---|---|
| Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life | 0.9% |
Instruments
| Percent Trades Forex | 0.0% |
|---|---|
| Percent Trades Futures | 0.0% |
| Percent Trades Options | 0.0% |
| Percent Trades Stocks | 1.0% |
Automation
| Percentage Signals Automated | 0.0% |
|---|
Trading Style
| Any stock shorts? 0/1 | 0 |
|---|
Trades-Own-System Certification
| Trades Own System? | 0 |
|---|---|
| TOS percent | 0.0% |
Win / Loss
| Avg Loss | $3,519 |
|---|---|
| Avg Win | $1,615 |
| # Winners | 80 |
| Sum Trade PL (losers) | $102,059 |
| Sum Trade PL (winners) | $129,173 |
| Num Months Winners | 23 |
| # Losers | 29 |
| % Winners | 73.4% |
Dividends
| Dividends Received in Model Acct | 3351 |
|---|
Age
| Num Months filled monthly returns table | 243 |
|---|
Frequency
| Avg Position Time (mins) | 7666.30 |
|---|---|
| Avg Position Time (hrs) | 127.77 |
| Avg Trade Length | 5.30 |
| Last Trade Ago | 6768 |
Regression
| Alpha | 0 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.02 |
| Treynor Index | -0.10 |
Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
| MAE:Equity, average, all trades | 0.02 |
|---|---|
| MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | 0.08 |
| MAE:Equity, average, losing trades | 0.05 |
| MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| MAE:Equity, average, winning trades | 0.01 |
| MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades | 11.92 |
| MAE:PL (avg, all trades) | -0.20 |
| MAE:PL (avg, losing trades) | — |
| MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats | 67.35 |
| MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats | 27.75 |
| MAE:PL (avg, winning trades) | — |
| MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades | 0.76 |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades | -1.67 |
| Hold-and-Hope Ratio | 0.08 |
RATIO STATISTICS
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.04 |
|---|---|
| VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl) | 0.05 |
DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
| Max Equity Drawdown (num days) | 60 |
|---|---|
| Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative | 0.0% |
Trading record
Placed 16 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.
| Symbol | Side | Qty | Opened | Closed | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LVLT | long | 1813 | Feb 19, 2008 | Feb 25, 2008 | ($7,620) |
| SEPR | long | 2810 | Feb 13, 2008 | Feb 25, 2008 | ($8,098) |
| MSFT | long | 2480 | Feb 7, 2008 | Feb 8, 2008 | $1,508 |
| LINTA | long | 4025 | Dec 28, 2007 | Jan 25, 2008 | ($16,991) |
| JNPR | long | 2750 | Jan 24, 2008 | Jan 25, 2008 | $4,643 |
| MCHP | long | 2430 | Jan 3, 2008 | Jan 17, 2008 | ($4,889) |
| MRVL | long | 5710 | Dec 28, 2007 | Dec 31, 2007 | $1,594 |
| CDNS | long | 4565 | Dec 21, 2007 | Dec 26, 2007 | $725 |
| PTEN | long | 3850 | Dec 20, 2007 | Dec 26, 2007 | $2,883 |
| MICC | long | 665 | Dec 14, 2007 | Dec 21, 2007 | $1,518 |
| CMCSA | long | 4275 | Dec 12, 2007 | Dec 20, 2007 | ($219) |
| RIMM | long | 730 | Dec 6, 2007 | Dec 7, 2007 | $3,849 |
| WYNN | long | 600 | Dec 4, 2007 | Dec 5, 2007 | $2,161 |
| XLNX | long | 3300 | Nov 28, 2007 | Dec 3, 2007 | ($459) |
| IACI | long | 2590 | Nov 20, 2007 | Nov 29, 2007 | $1,756 |
| CTXS | long | 1925 | Nov 21, 2007 | Nov 26, 2007 | $1,400 |
| VMED | long | 3530 | Oct 31, 2007 | Nov 19, 2007 | ($12,254) |
| CHRW | long | 1620 | Nov 5, 2007 | Nov 19, 2007 | ($1,625) |
| BEAS | long | 4550 | Oct 29, 2007 | Nov 2, 2007 | $1,497 |
| IACI | long | 2775 | Oct 25, 2007 | Oct 30, 2007 | $1,521 |
| EBAY | long | 2120 | Oct 24, 2007 | Oct 26, 2007 | $1,521 |
| INFY | long | 6320 | Oct 17, 2007 | Oct 23, 2007 | ($466) |
| WFMI | long | 1580 | Oct 22, 2007 | Oct 23, 2007 | $1,512 |
| VMED | long | 3230 | Oct 17, 2007 | Oct 18, 2007 | $1,513 |
| NTAP | long | 2820 | Oct 4, 2007 | Oct 5, 2007 | $1,461 |
| SEPR | long | 2650 | Sep 27, 2007 | Oct 3, 2007 | $128 |
| AKAM | long | 2435 | Sep 26, 2007 | Oct 2, 2007 | $1,456 |
| VMED | long | 3125 | Sep 12, 2007 | Sep 18, 2007 | $1,401 |
| MNST | long | 4300 | Sep 13, 2007 | Sep 17, 2007 | $1,414 |
| QCOM | long | 1930 | Sep 11, 2007 | Sep 12, 2007 | $1,920 |
Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.