Russell 2000 seasonality
- hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
- 6.0%
- Max Drawdown
- 48.1%
- Trades
- 32
- Win Trades
- 59.4%
- Profit Factor
- 1.20
- Win Months
- 8.2%
About this strategy
New Money Management Rules applied from March 2008
====================================
Fixed risk of 30% for every trade. Stop loss order used, governed by current volatilty. Leverage is then applied to normalise risk at 30%.
This money management was used in the original turtle experiment and was said by Curtis Faith to be a large contributor to their success. Further details and examples are given in my forum post on the topic. Please read.
The main benefit is that risk is taken care of whatever the market conditions, and our stop losses are appropriate to the current volatility. Upside is left to play out until the end of the trade, usually 7 days after entry.
System Description
=============
It is well known that the markets tend to rise around the end of each month and the beginning of the next month. Various theories try to explain this with the most cogent being that money flows into the markets around this time, causing prices to rise. This system uses this phenomenum and only employs capital during the most favourable time-span. Mid month, when historically prices have remained flat is the time when we dont participate in the market.
There are 2 options for subscribing to this system. There is this system which charges $50 per month, but for people who wish to only pay for performance I have the same system under the name er2 pay per +ve trade. Although signals are identical to this system, you will be charged $65 but only for successful signals.
Real world trading of this system is very easy. Just 2 actions required each month, and very little impact from slippage or commissions.
The system is biased on the long side with around 90% of trades going long, with the other trades going short.
Each trade on its own has a 77+% chance of making profit, so in a typical year 9 out of the 12 trades should be profitable.
100% annual success rate - every year of the past 20 has returned profits using this system. The worst yearly performance was up a mere 41%, whilst the best was up 170%.
We use the Russell 2000 index as it is broad based and has no big weightings from individual stocks like the Dow and Nasdaq indices. Having compared the systems performance using the S&P500, NDX100 and also other international indices such as the FTSE100, Nikkei and DAX, the Russell came out on top in terms of overall performance and, more importantantly in my view, stability, with very few large losses.
Yearly back-tested results going back to 1987 show an average yearly gain of 92.5%, which isnt bad given a market exposure of only 86 days a year!
My system will generate its signal towards the end of each month. Subscribers will be emailed a day or so prior to the signal date with a heads up suggesting what the signal will be and what amount of leverage the system will use. The signal is intended to be executed as near as possible to the market close on that day. Around 7 trading days later a signal will be sent instructing you to get back to cash.
This system is not a paper only system. I trade this myself with my own money, and that of some friends and colleagues. I have faith that this system will continue to produce good results.
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 3.0 | 24.1 | -2.8 | 7.6 | -9.6 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 11.2 | 42.7 | ||||
| 2007 | -8.9 | -0.3 | -36.0 | 4.3 | 11.8 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 7.4 | -6.5 | 7.8 | -24.0 |
| 2008 | -5.3 | -13.6 | -13.4 | 13.4 | 38.3 | -18.9 | 14.8 | 32.1 | -34.1 | 36.3 | 8.6 | -10.1 | 19.9 |
| 2009 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 |
| 2010 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2011 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2012 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2013 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2014 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2015 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2016 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2017 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2018 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2019 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2020 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2021 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2022 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2023 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2024 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Statistics
Overview
| Strategy began | 5/19/2006 |
|---|---|
| Suggested Minimum Capital | $100,000 |
| Age | 248 months |
| What it trades | Futures |
| # Trades | 32 |
| # Profitable | 19 |
| % Profitable | 59.4% |
| Avg trade duration | 8.9 days |
| Max peak-to-valley drawdown | 48.1% |
| drawdown period | Dec 27, 2006 - March 28, 2008 |
| Annual return (compounded) | 1.5% |
| Avg win | $11,520 |
| Avg loss | $14,119 |
Ratios
| W:L ratio | 1.19 |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.03 |
| Sortino Ratio | 0.05 |
| Calmar Ratio | -0.00 |
CORRELATION STATISTICS
| Correlation to SP500 | 0.12 |
|---|---|
| Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life | 502.8% |
| Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu) | 0.4% |
Return Statistics
| Ann Return (w trading costs) | 6.0% |
|---|---|
| Return Pcnt Since TOS Status | 0.0% |
| Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees) | 1.5% |
Slump
| Current Slump as Pcnt Equity | 17.6% |
|---|---|
| Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life | 0.9% |
Instruments
| Percent Trades Forex | 0.0% |
|---|---|
| Percent Trades Futures | 1.0% |
| Percent Trades Options | 0.0% |
| Percent Trades Stocks | 0.0% |
Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
| Chance of 10% account loss | 68.8% |
|---|---|
| Chance of 20% account loss | 58.8% |
| Chance of 30% account loss | 44.4% |
| Chance of 40% account loss | 26.3% |
| Chance of 50% account loss | 21.1% |
| Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
Automation
| Percentage Signals Automated | 0.0% |
|---|
Trading Style
| Any stock shorts? 0/1 | 0 |
|---|
Trades-Own-System Certification
| Trades Own System? | 0 |
|---|---|
| TOS percent | 0.0% |
Win / Loss
| Avg Loss | $14,118 |
|---|---|
| Avg Win | $11,520 |
| # Winners | 19 |
| Sum Trade PL (losers) | $183,540 |
| Sum Trade PL (winners) | $218,880 |
| Num Months Winners | 21 |
| # Losers | 13 |
| % Winners | 59.4% |
Dividends
| Dividends Received in Model Acct | 0 |
|---|
Age
| Num Months filled monthly returns table | 245 |
|---|
Frequency
| Avg Position Time (mins) | 12814.67 |
|---|---|
| Avg Position Time (hrs) | 213.58 |
| Avg Trade Length | 8.90 |
| Last Trade Ago | 6496 |
Regression
| Alpha | 0 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.11 |
| Treynor Index | 0.02 |
Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
| MAE:Equity, average, all trades | 0.10 |
|---|---|
| MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | 0.35 |
| MAE:Equity, average, losing trades | 0.18 |
| MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| MAE:Equity, average, winning trades | 0.05 |
| MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades | 8.83 |
| MAE:PL (avg, all trades) | -1.92 |
| MAE:PL (avg, losing trades) | — |
| MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats | 83.13 |
| MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats | 18.32 |
| MAE:PL (avg, winning trades) | — |
| MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades | 0.43 |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades | -1.19 |
| Hold-and-Hope Ratio | 0.11 |
RATIO STATISTICS
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.29 |
|---|---|
| VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl) | 0.07 |
DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
| Max Equity Drawdown (num days) | 457 |
|---|---|
| Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative | 0.0% |
Trading record
Placed 21 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.
| Symbol | Side | Qty | Opened | Closed | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TFS Z8 | long | 7 | Nov 25, 2008 | Dec 4, 2008 | $5,334 |
| TFS Z8 | long | 6 | Oct 29, 2008 | Nov 6, 2008 | $27,232 |
| TFS Z8 | long | 9 | Sep 25, 2008 | Sep 29, 2008 | ($43,362) |
| ER2 U8 | long | 13 | Aug 26, 2008 | Sep 5, 2008 | $16,126 |
| ER2 U8 | long | 9 | Jul 28, 2008 | Aug 6, 2008 | $27,558 |
| ER2 U8 | long | 16 | Jun 25, 2008 | Jun 30, 2008 | ($39,008) |
| ER2 M8 | long | 13 | May 27, 2008 | Jun 5, 2008 | $35,646 |
| ER2 M8 | long | 10 | Apr 25, 2008 | May 6, 2008 | $8,020 |
| ER2 M8 | long | 6 | Mar 25, 2008 | Apr 3, 2008 | $5,112 |
| ER2 H8 | long | 6 | Mar 25, 2008 | Mar 25, 2008 | ($48) |
| ER2 M8 | long | 3 | Feb 26, 2008 | Feb 29, 2008 | ($10,134) |
| ER2 H8 | long | 2 | Jan 28, 2008 | Feb 6, 2008 | ($1,876) |
| ER2 H8 | long | 4 | Dec 19, 2007 | Jan 3, 2008 | ($4,832) |
| ER2 Z7 | long | 3 | Nov 27, 2007 | Dec 6, 2007 | $12,336 |
| ER2 Z7 | long | 5 | Oct 28, 2007 | Nov 1, 2007 | ($12,490) |
| ER2 Z7 | long | 3 | Sep 25, 2007 | Oct 4, 2007 | $7,126 |
| ER2 U7 | long | 1 | Aug 28, 2007 | Aug 31, 2007 | $2,582 |
| ER2 U7 | long | 2 | Jul 26, 2007 | Aug 1, 2007 | ($5,576) |
| ER2 U7 | long | 3 | Jun 26, 2007 | Jul 6, 2007 | $7,686 |
| ER2 M7 | long | 5 | May 25, 2007 | Jun 6, 2007 | $6,690 |
| ER2 M7 | long | 5 | Apr 25, 2007 | May 4, 2007 | ($540) |
| ER2 M7 | long | 5 | Mar 27, 2007 | Apr 5, 2007 | $5,460 |
| ER2 H7 | long | 8 | Feb 26, 2007 | Mar 5, 2007 | ($48,864) |
| ER2 H7 | long | 2 | Jan 26, 2007 | Feb 6, 2007 | $4,184 |
| ER2 H7 | long | 11 | Dec 19, 2006 | Jan 8, 2007 | ($7,158) |
| ER2 Z6 | long | 10 | Nov 27, 2006 | Dec 6, 2006 | $18,200 |
| ER2 Z6 | long | 8 | Oct 26, 2006 | Nov 6, 2006 | ($10,224) |
| ER2 Z6 | long | 6 | Sep 27, 2006 | Oct 9, 2006 | $4,272 |
| ER2 U6 | long | 6 | Aug 28, 2006 | Sep 7, 2006 | ($108) |
| ER2 U6 | long | 1 | Jul 26, 2006 | Aug 4, 2006 | $652 |
Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.