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Aestreux Fund

Forex · Started Apr 2006

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
1275
Win Trades
66.7%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
8.6%

About this strategy

Under research and development.

Trade at your own discretion. Foreign Exchange trading involves high risk.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2006121.9145.7-20.1-19.7-41.214.717.119.3-7.4205.0
2007-2.0-12.7-12.36.5-14.7-26.211.564.0-36.7-54.8240.22.3-8.3
2008-3.9-18.981.4-34.2-27.813.118.636.1-12.5-82.0406.345.642.1
2009-158.1-77.8-289.210.170.415.0-7.4-16.1-18.914.0-42.889.2-59.1
2010-121.0-254.4-103.2-770.9-1217.3-25.9-17.9-36.4-27.7-12.6-14.4-3.4-386.4
2011-15.5-9.3-8.6-32.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/3/2006
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age249 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades1275
# Profitable851
% Profitable66.7%
Avg trade duration1.3 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodMarch 31, 2010 - Sept 07, 2010
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$4,005
Avg loss$8,349

Ratios

W:L ratio0.96
Sharpe Ratio0.13
Sortino Ratio0.19
Calmar Ratio-0.84

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.08
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life487.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-803.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$8,349
Avg Win$4,005
# Winners851
Sum Trade PL (losers)$3,539,933
Sum Trade PL (winners)$3,407,935
Num Months Winners16
# Losers424
% Winners66.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table34

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1847.32
Avg Position Time (hrs)30.79
Avg Trade Length1.30
Last Trade Ago5630

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-0.44
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.04
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.03
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.05
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.04
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-22.29
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.98
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats69.76
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats86.73
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.46
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.27
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.04

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean46658.91
SD124179.56
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.38
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.37
df84
t1.00
p0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.11
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.37
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.11
Sortino ratio62943.28
Upside Potential Ratio62944.59
Upside part of mean46659.88
Downside part of mean-0.97
Upside SD124179.57
Downside SD0.74
N nonnegative terms61
N negative terms24
N of observations85
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion46658.91
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion124179.56
Covariance-1282.31
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-24314.97
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)50934.27
Mean Square Error15574798336
DF error83
t(b)-0.41
p(b)0.66
t(a)1.06
p(a)0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-142248.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta93618.67
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-44608.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha146476.69
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.92
Jensen alpha (a)50934.27
Mean-1.82
SD8.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.22
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.22
df84
t-0.58
p0.72
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.96
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.52
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.95
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.52
Sortino ratio-0.27
Upside Potential Ratio0.39
Upside part of mean2.66
Downside part of mean-4.48
Upside SD4.84
Downside SD6.74
N nonnegative terms61
N negative terms24
N of observations85
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion-1.82
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion8.33
Covariance0.47
r0.24
b (slope, estimate of beta)8.62
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-3.10
Mean Square Error66.03
DF error83
t(b)2.28
p(b)0.01
t(a)-1.00
p(a)0.84
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta16.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-9.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.07
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.21
Jensen alpha (a)-3.10
VaR(95%)0.98
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.99
VaR(95%)0.12
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.29
Mean72204.22
SD86655.90
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.83
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.83
df1857
t2.22
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.57
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.10
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.57
Sortino ratio41177.33
Upside Potential Ratio41181.72
Upside part of mean72211.91
Downside part of mean-7.69
Upside SD86747.34
Downside SD1.75
N nonnegative terms1384
N negative terms474
N of observations1858
Mean of predictor0.30
Mean of criterion72204.22
SD of predictor0.58
SD of criterion86655.90
Covariance-2969.25
r-0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)-8979.16
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)74919.86
Mean Square Error7486614528
DF error1856
t(b)-2.57
p(b)0.53
t(a)2.30
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-15827.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2131.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha11162.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha138677.36
Treynor index (mean / b)-8.04
Jensen alpha (a)74919.86
Mean-1.82
SD16.80
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.11
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.11
df1857
t-0.29
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.63
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.84
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.63
Sortino ratio-0.15
Upside Potential Ratio1.60
Upside part of mean19.62
Downside part of mean-21.44
Upside SD11.46
Downside SD12.28
N nonnegative terms1384
N negative terms474
N of observations1858
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion-1.82
SD of predictor0.56
SD of criterion16.80
Covariance0.23
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.71
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.92
Mean Square Error282.23
DF error1856
t(b)1.03
p(b)0.49
t(a)-0.30
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-14.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha10.45
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.55
Jensen alpha (a)-1.92
VaR(95%)0.82
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.88
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.77
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.54
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.61
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.57
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations85
Minimum0
Quartile 10.95
Median1
Quartile 31.04
Maximum330499.12
Mean of quarter 10.69
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 415739.45
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low12
Percentage of outliers low0.14
Mean of outliers low0.53
Number of outliers high12
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high27543.21
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.01
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.17
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.25
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.59
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.31
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.32
Number of observations1858
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum149970
Mean of quarter 10.88
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41102.29
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low382
Percentage of outliers low0.21
Mean of outliers low0.86
Number of outliers high368
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high1392.57
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.93
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.32
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.10
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.12
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.58
Quartile 10.65
Median0.73
Quartile 30.86
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 10.58
Mean of quarter 20.73
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0.21
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations7
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.02
Median0.06
Quartile 30.43
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.07
Mean of quarter 40.89
Inter Quartile Range0.41
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-391945440
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)160
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.84
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.84
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.84
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.85
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.84
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.84
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.94
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.96
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 876 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
EUR/JPY long5870Jan 9, 2009Apr 14, 2011($1,281)
EUR/AUD long1000Jan 27, 2009Jan 27, 2009$2,790
GBP/JPY long250Jan 22, 2009Jan 23, 2009($53)
AUD/JPY long250Jan 22, 2009Jan 22, 2009($19)
AUD/USD long250Jan 22, 2009Jan 22, 2009($1,210)
GBP/JPY long1060Jan 20, 2009Jan 21, 2009($236)
EUR/USD long2100Jan 8, 2009Jan 20, 2009($123,448)
GBP/USD long1750Jan 12, 2009Jan 20, 2009($87,741)
NZD/USD long2400Jan 11, 2009Jan 20, 2009($105,918)
GBP/JPY long500Jan 20, 2009Jan 20, 2009($79)
AUD/JPY long1000Jan 13, 2009Jan 13, 2009$37
AUD/USD long600Jan 8, 2009Jan 9, 2009($2,159)
GBP/USD long500Jan 9, 2009Jan 9, 2009($925)
NZD/USD long1100Jan 8, 2009Jan 9, 2009($1,156)
AUD/JPY long2000Jan 7, 2009Jan 8, 2009$6
NZD/USD long1200Jan 7, 2009Jan 8, 2009$8,850
EUR/USD long500Jan 7, 2009Jan 8, 2009$6,225
EUR/AUD short500Jan 8, 2009Jan 8, 2009($3,311)
EUR/AUD short500Jan 8, 2009Jan 8, 2009($89)
GBP/JPY long3500Jan 7, 2009Jan 7, 2009$74
AUD/JPY long1000Jan 7, 2009Jan 7, 2009($78)
EUR/USD long1000Jan 7, 2009Jan 7, 2009$9,880
AUD/USD long1250Jan 6, 2009Jan 6, 2009$348
AUD/USD long500Jan 5, 2009Jan 5, 2009$1,365
GBP/JPY short500Jan 5, 2009Jan 5, 2009$4
GBP/JPY long1000Jan 5, 2009Jan 5, 2009$31
EUR/AUD long1000Jan 4, 2009Jan 5, 2009$292
AUD/USD short1000Jan 4, 2009Jan 5, 2009$2,850
USD/CAD long1200Dec 30, 2008Dec 31, 2008$6,708
EUR/JPY short500Dec 30, 2008Dec 30, 2008$2

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.