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Logan

Futures · Started Dec 2005

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
1.0%
Max Drawdown
19.3%
Trades
61
Win Trades
77.0%
Profit Factor
1.80
Win Months
2.8%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2005-0.7-0.7
200614.15.12.02.6-6.1-8.2-1.6-0.70.4-0.015.91.224.3
20070.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20080.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20090.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.0-0.0
20100.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.0
20110.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/2/2005
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age253 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades61
# Profitable47
% Profitable77.0%
Avg trade duration8.8 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown19.3%
drawdown periodDec 06, 2005 - Dec 08, 2005
Annual Return (Compounded)1.0%
Avg win$1,280
Avg loss$2,444

Ratios

W:L ratio1.76
Sharpe Ratio-0.14
Sortino Ratio-0.20
Calmar Ratio0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life502.6%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-481.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)1.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)1.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity3.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss6.7%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$2,444
Avg Win$1,280
# Winners47
Sum Trade PL (losers)$34,221
Sum Trade PL (winners)$60,159
Num Months Winners9
# Losers14
% Winners77.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table250

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)12668.02
Avg Position Time (hrs)211.13
Avg Trade Length8.80
Last Trade Ago7225

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.01
Treynor Index-0.26

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.03
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades8.29
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)164.82
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats30.49
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats99.94
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades2.92
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.15
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.12

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.00
SD0.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.04
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.04
df87
t0.11
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.76
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.68
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.76
Sortino ratio0.06
Upside Potential Ratio0.76
Upside part of mean0.04
Downside part of mean-0.04
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms80
N negative terms8
N of observations88
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.00
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.08
Covariance0.00
r0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error86
t(b)1.25
p(b)0.11
t(a)-0.18
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Treynor index (mean / b)0.07
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
Mean0
SD0.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df87
t0
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.72
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.72
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.72
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.72
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0.69
Upside part of mean0.04
Downside part of mean-0.04
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms80
N negative terms8
N of observations88
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.08
Covariance0.00
r0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error86
t(b)1.34
p(b)0.09
t(a)-0.25
p(a)0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.02
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.11
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.11
df1928
t0.30
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.83
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.61
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.83
Sortino ratio0.16
Upside Potential Ratio1.82
Upside part of mean0.28
Downside part of mean-0.26
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms1822
N negative terms107
N of observations1929
Mean of predictor0.28
Mean of criterion0.02
SD of predictor0.53
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance0.03
r0.22
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error1927
t(b)9.71
p(b)0.36
t(a)-0.00
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.15
Treynor index (mean / b)0.27
Jensen alpha (a)-0.00
Mean0
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df1928
t0
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.72
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.72
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.72
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.72
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio1.62
Upside part of mean0.27
Downside part of mean-0.27
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms1822
N negative terms107
N of observations1929
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.53
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance0.03
r0.22
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error1927
t(b)9.90
p(b)0.36
t(a)-0.16
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.75
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.52
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.61
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.53
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations88
Minimum0.90
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low8
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high10
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-37.13
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.78
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations1929
Minimum0.79
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.18
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low107
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high125
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.36
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.63
VaR(95%) (regression method)-0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations4
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.15
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.00
Mean of quarter 40.15
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high0.15
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.03
Quartile 30.14
Maximum0.30
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.24
Inter Quartile Range0.12
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-396564576
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)2
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 4 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ES Z6long10Nov 28, 2006Dec 1, 2006$7,420
ES Z6long10Nov 2, 2006Nov 8, 2006$10,920
ES Z6long1Sep 12, 2006Sep 22, 2006$342
ES U6long1Aug 29, 2006Sep 12, 2006$205
ES U6short1Aug 17, 2006Aug 24, 2006$55
ES U6short1Aug 3, 2006Aug 8, 2006($546)
ES U6short1Jul 26, 2006Aug 2, 2006($883)
ES U6long1Jun 29, 2006Jul 13, 2006$5
YM M6long1May 16, 2006Jun 13, 2006($3,373)
ES M6long1May 16, 2006Jun 13, 2006($3,296)
NQ M6long1May 16, 2006Jun 13, 2006($2,403)
EMD M6long1May 15, 2006Jun 13, 2006($6,688)
ER2 M6long1May 15, 2006Jun 13, 2006($6,068)
NQ M6long1May 1, 2006May 8, 2006$237
ES M6long1May 1, 2006May 8, 2006$567
EMD M6long1May 1, 2006May 8, 2006$1,322
ER2 M6long1May 1, 2006May 8, 2006$1,672
NQ M6long1Apr 17, 2006Apr 27, 2006($3)
ES M6long1Apr 10, 2006Apr 19, 2006$405
YM M6long1Apr 12, 2006Apr 18, 2006$302
ER2 M6long1Apr 10, 2006Apr 18, 2006$762
EMD M6long1Apr 12, 2006Apr 18, 2006$1,192
YM M6long1Mar 29, 2006Apr 10, 2006($323)
ES M6long1Mar 26, 2006Apr 5, 2006$217
EMD M6long1Mar 28, 2006Apr 3, 2006$702
NQ M6long1Mar 24, 2006Apr 3, 2006$682
NQ H6long1Mar 1, 2006Mar 14, 2006$62
EMD H6long1Mar 6, 2006Mar 14, 2006$192
ER2 H6long1Mar 7, 2006Mar 13, 2006$762
ES H6long1Mar 6, 2006Mar 13, 2006$292

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.