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Eagle One

Futures · Started Nov 2005

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-0.7%
Max Drawdown
53.4%
Trades
19
Win Trades
78.9%
Profit Factor
0.90
Win Months
2.0%

About this strategy

Eagle One is an S&P E-Mini Futures trading system which uses the S&P cash Index as timing mechanism but the E-Mini S&P futures as the trading vehicle. Eagle One can be Long/Short or flat the S&P market . Reversal signals are also possible. Trading signals are generated with the closing S&P cash index price at 4:00 and the trade is entered via the futures market between 4:00 and 4:15 eastern time.
It is important to note that the same trade may generate up to three (3) signals therefore one third of the trade is entered with each signal and the entire position is unwound on the exit signal. As well, (1) trade may be all that is generated from a specific signal.
This is a system with excellent history and a slower time horizon.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2005-0.85.44.5
200636.111.08.78.7-52.6-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.30.0-16.7
20070.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20080.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20090.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20100.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20110.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began11/17/2005
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age253 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades19
# Profitable15
% Profitable78.9%
Avg trade duration4.8 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown53.4%
drawdown periodMay 07, 2006 - May 24, 2006
Annual Return (Compounded)-0.7%
Avg win$6,375
Avg loss$25,575

Ratios

W:L ratio0.93
Sharpe Ratio-0.23
Sortino Ratio-0.27
Calmar Ratio0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life513.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-529.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-0.7%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-0.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity114.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$25,575
Avg Win$6,375
# Winners15
Sum Trade PL (losers)$102,300
Sum Trade PL (winners)$95,625
Num Months Winners6
# Losers4
% Winners78.9%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table251

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)6929.88
Avg Position Time (hrs)115.50
Avg Trade Length4.80
Last Trade Ago7416

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0.01
Treynor Index-0.49

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.23
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat1.09
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.30
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.21
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-82.26
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)3.26
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats70.13
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats78.26
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades4.45
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.21
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.01

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.03
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.13
df117
t0.41
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.76
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.49
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.76
Sortino ratio0.16
Upside Potential Ratio0.48
Upside part of mean0.08
Downside part of mean-0.05
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms117
N negative terms1
N of observations118
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance0.00
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error116
t(b)0.54
p(b)0.47
t(a)0.31
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.15
Treynor index (mean / b)0.54
Jensen alpha (a)0.02
Mean0
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df117
t0.00
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.63
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.63
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.63
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0.32
Upside part of mean0.07
Downside part of mean-0.07
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.23
N nonnegative terms117
N negative terms1
N of observations118
Mean of predictor0.10
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance0.00
r0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error116
t(b)0.70
p(b)0.47
t(a)-0.10
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.15
Treynor index (mean / b)0.00
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
Mean0.07
SD0.40
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.17
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.17
df2584
t0.55
p0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.80
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.45
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.80
Sortino ratio0.32
Upside Potential Ratio1.25
Upside part of mean0.27
Downside part of mean-0.20
Upside SD0.33
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms2536
N negative terms49
N of observations2585
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion0.07
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion0.40
Covariance-0.03
r-0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.10
Mean Square Error0.15
DF error2583
t(b)-7.59
p(b)1
t(a)0.79
p(a)0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.34
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.55
Jensen alpha (a)0.10
Mean0
SD0.37
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df2584
t0.00
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.62
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.62
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.62
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0.85
Upside part of mean0.23
Downside part of mean-0.23
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.27
N nonnegative terms2536
N negative terms49
N of observations2585
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0.37
Covariance-0.03
r-0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
Mean Square Error0.13
DF error2583
t(b)-7.99
p(b)1
t(a)0.14
p(a)0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.00
Jensen alpha (a)0.02
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.72
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.81
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.42
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.75
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations118
Minimum0.49
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.25
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.01
Mean of outliers low0.49
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.11
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations2585
Minimum0.53
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.87
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low49
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high73
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.48
VaR(95%) (moments method)-0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.11
VaR(95%) (regression method)-0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.51
Quartile 10.51
Median0.51
Quartile 30.51
Maximum0.51
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations17
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.52
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.35
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high0.45
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.22
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.17
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.22
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.05
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.37
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.41
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-378994912
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)17
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.00
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.00
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ES M6long30May 8, 2006May 24, 2006($97,740)
ES M6long30Apr 24, 2006Apr 27, 2006$3,635
ES M6long10Apr 17, 2006Apr 19, 2006$11,795
ES M6long12Apr 7, 2006Apr 13, 2006($1,821)
ES M6long6Mar 28, 2006Apr 4, 2006$3,402
ES M6short18Mar 15, 2006Mar 21, 2006$7,806
ES H6long18Feb 28, 2006Mar 13, 2006$4,731
ES H6long6Feb 21, 2006Feb 27, 2006$3,102
ES H6long18Feb 2, 2006Feb 15, 2006$12,981
ES H6long6Jan 25, 2006Jan 27, 2006$5,127
ES H6long12Jan 18, 2006Jan 24, 2006($2,871)
ES H6short18Jan 6, 2006Jan 18, 2006$11,331
ES H6long18Dec 27, 2005Jan 4, 2006$19,131
ES H6long12Dec 19, 2005Dec 22, 2005$4,254
ES H6short6Dec 14, 2005Dec 16, 2005$1,452
ES Z5long6Dec 8, 2005Dec 12, 2005$1,077
ES Z5long6Nov 29, 2005Dec 2, 2005$3,177
ES Z5short6Nov 21, 2005Nov 29, 2005($348)
ES Z5short3Nov 23, 2005Nov 29, 2005$1,176

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.