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SMARTY Smart Martingale
(148261013)

Created by: BlackOpzFXX BlackOpzFXX
Started: 05/2024
Forex
Last trade: Today
Trading style: Equity Trend-following Momentum

Subscriptions not available

No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.

Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $149.00 per month.

C2Star

C2Star is a certification program for trading strategies. In order to become "C2Star Certified," a strategy must apply tight risk controls, and must exhibit excellent performance characteristics, including low drawdowns.

You can read more about C2Star certification requirements here.

Note that: all trading strategies are risky, and C2Star Certification does not imply that a strategy is low risk.

Trading Category: Equity
Trend-following
Category: Equity

Trend-following

Tries to take advantage of long, medium or short-term moves that seem to play out in various markets. Typically, trend-following analysis is backward looking; that is, it attempts to recognize and profit from already-established trends.
Momentum
Category: Equity

Momentum

Aims to capitalize on the continuance of existing trends in the market. Trader takes a long position in an asset in an upward trend, and short-sells a security that has been in a downward trend. While similar to Trend-following, tends to be more forward-looking (predicting oncoming trend), while Momentum is more backward-looking (observing already-established price direction).
2.9%
Annual Return (Compounded)

Rate of Return Calculations

Overview

To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.

How Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return is calculated

= ((Ending_equity / Starting_equity) ^ (1 / age_in_years)) - 1

Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in marked-to-market equity calculations.

All results are hypothetical.

(14.6%)
Max Drawdown
1247
Num Trades
37.4%
Win Trades
1.1 : 1
Profit Factor
42.3%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and Typical Broker commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2024                            (0.3%)(1.3%)(2.1%)+1.2%+5.0%+7.2%+7.8%(0.3%)+17.9%
2025(0.8%)(1.5%)+3.0%+3.8%(5.6%)(1.9%)+0.1%+1.1%+1.9%(3.4%)(3.3%)+1.0%(5.9%)
2026+0.1%(0.2%)(1%)(1.2%)(1.3%)(1%)                                    (4.4%)

Model Account Details

A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

LiveSignal

Live broadcasts, recordings, and community highlights.
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Live Chat

More Info, Testing & Logic: C2 Forum - https://x7.fyi/smartyc2
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Trading Record

This strategy has placed 372 trades in real-life brokerage accounts. The most recent trade in a real-money brokerage account occurred more than 472 days ago.

Show AutoTrade data Hide AutoTrade data
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Long
Short
Both
Win
Loss
Both
Opened Date/TimeSymbolDescriptionSideQuantAvg PriceClosed Date/TimeAvg PriceDrawdownP/L
6/11/26 20:25 USD/JPY USD/JPY LONG 20 160.183 6/14 17:30 159.882 0.09%
Trade id #156548586
Max drawdown($48)
Time6/14/26 17:30
Quant open20
Worst price159.798
Drawdown as % of equity-0.09%
 ($37.65)
6/8/26 5:19 GBP/USD GBP/USD SHORT 20 1.33164 6/8 6:34 1.33485 0.12%
Trade id #156466674
Max drawdown($64)
Time6/8/26 6:34
Quant open20
Worst price1.33485
Drawdown as % of equity-0.12%
 ($64.20)
6/5/26 11:11 GBP/USD GBP/USD SHORT 40 1.33757 6/7 18:01 1.33205 0.02%
Trade id #156443568
Max drawdown($11)
Time6/5/26 11:23
Quant open40
Worst price1.33785
Drawdown as % of equity-0.02%
 $221.00
6/3/26 16:05 USD/JPY USD/JPY LONG 160 160.086 6/3 18:56 159.929 0.32%
Trade id #156410370
Max drawdown($172)
Time6/3/26 18:56
Quant open160
Worst price159.914
Drawdown as % of equity-0.32%
 ($157.08)
6/2/26 9:01 USD/JPY USD/JPY LONG 160 159.791 6/3 4:31 159.416 0.8%
Trade id #156385618
Max drawdown($425)
Time6/3/26 4:31
Quant open160
Worst price159.366
Drawdown as % of equity-0.80%
 ($375.20)
5/29/26 10:52 GBP/USD GBP/USD LONG 20 1.34635 6/1 9:51 1.34159 0.18%
Trade id #156337371
Max drawdown($98)
Time6/1/26 9:51
Quant open20
Worst price1.34144
Drawdown as % of equity-0.18%
 ($95.20)
5/27/26 10:58 USD/JPY USD/JPY LONG 80 159.508 5/28 10:13 159.348 0.31%
Trade id #156302976
Max drawdown($166)
Time5/28/26 10:13
Quant open80
Worst price159.177
Drawdown as % of equity-0.31%
 ($80.04)
5/26/26 11:02 GBP/USD GBP/USD SHORT 80 1.34456 5/27 23:56 1.33956 0.2%
Trade id #156287748
Max drawdown($105)
Time5/26/26 19:45
Quant open80
Worst price1.34588
Drawdown as % of equity-0.20%
 $399.80
5/25/26 3:57 GBP/USD GBP/USD LONG 40 1.34815 5/26 11:00 1.34495 0.24%
Trade id #156266116
Max drawdown($129)
Time5/26/26 11:00
Quant open40
Worst price1.34491
Drawdown as % of equity-0.24%
 ($128.00)
5/21/26 9:30 USD/JPY USD/JPY LONG 40 159.233 5/21 13:11 159.050 0.09%
Trade id #156223990
Max drawdown($48)
Time5/21/26 13:11
Quant open40
Worst price159.042
Drawdown as % of equity-0.09%
 ($45.77)
5/18/26 7:42 GBP/USD GBP/USD SHORT 20 1.33752 5/18 8:34 1.33926 0.07%
Trade id #156166973
Max drawdown($36)
Time5/18/26 8:34
Quant open20
Worst price1.33934
Drawdown as % of equity-0.07%
 ($34.80)
5/15/26 11:03 GBP/USD GBP/USD SHORT 20 1.33351 5/18 6:05 1.33587 0.18%
Trade id #156120602
Max drawdown($98)
Time5/18/26 4:55
Quant open20
Worst price1.33843
Drawdown as % of equity-0.18%
 ($47.20)
5/15/26 5:06 USD/JPY USD/JPY LONG 20 158.597 5/15 7:17 158.451 0.07%
Trade id #156115784
Max drawdown($38)
Time5/15/26 6:52
Quant open20
Worst price158.291
Drawdown as % of equity-0.07%
 ($18.26)
5/15/26 4:02 GBP/USD GBP/USD SHORT 20 1.33607 5/15 6:14 1.33640 0.02%
Trade id #156115269
Max drawdown($8)
Time5/15/26 6:14
Quant open20
Worst price1.33651
Drawdown as % of equity-0.02%
 ($6.60)
5/14/26 11:00 USD/JPY USD/JPY LONG 20 158.188 5/15 3:21 158.366 0.03%
Trade id #156103832
Max drawdown($13)
Time5/14/26 11:54
Quant open20
Worst price158.079
Drawdown as % of equity-0.03%
 $22.26
5/14/26 14:09 GBP/USD GBP/USD SHORT 20 1.34008 5/15 3:11 1.33645 0.03%
Trade id #156107681
Max drawdown($15)
Time5/14/26 15:11
Quant open20
Worst price1.34084
Drawdown as % of equity-0.03%
 $72.60
5/14/26 11:08 GBP/USD GBP/USD SHORT 160 1.34785 5/14 14:01 1.34343 0.12%
Trade id #156103984
Max drawdown($64)
Time5/14/26 11:33
Quant open160
Worst price1.34825
Drawdown as % of equity-0.12%
 $706.40
5/13/26 5:17 USD/JPY USD/JPY LONG 160 157.869 5/13 17:27 157.785 0.24%
Trade id #156078940
Max drawdown($127)
Time5/13/26 7:38
Quant open160
Worst price157.743
Drawdown as % of equity-0.24%
 ($84.05)
5/12/26 11:23 GBP/USD GBP/USD SHORT 80 1.35037 5/12 15:34 1.35429 0.61%
Trade id #156062905
Max drawdown($323)
Time5/12/26 15:34
Quant open80
Worst price1.35441
Drawdown as % of equity-0.61%
 ($313.60)
5/12/26 3:07 GBP/USD GBP/USD SHORT 40 1.35342 5/12 5:30 1.35396 0.06%
Trade id #156055147
Max drawdown($34)
Time5/12/26 5:30
Quant open40
Worst price1.35427
Drawdown as % of equity-0.06%
 ($21.60)
5/11/26 21:29 USD/JPY USD/JPY LONG 160 157.545 5/12 1:55 156.834 1.49%
Trade id #156052023
Max drawdown($806)
Time5/12/26 1:55
Quant open160
Worst price156.751
Drawdown as % of equity-1.49%
 ($711.38)
5/6/26 1:00 USD/JPY USD/JPY SHORT 80 155.910 5/6 2:04 156.427 0.52%
Trade id #155951703
Max drawdown($279)
Time5/6/26 2:04
Quant open80
Worst price156.455
Drawdown as % of equity-0.52%
 ($258.64)
5/5/26 11:03 USD/JPY USD/JPY SHORT 40 157.621 5/5 13:03 157.813 0.09%
Trade id #155941282
Max drawdown($48)
Time5/5/26 13:03
Quant open40
Worst price157.811
Drawdown as % of equity-0.09%
 ($48.03)
5/1/26 10:03 GBP/USD GBP/USD LONG 20 1.36473 5/1 12:33 1.36061 0.16%
Trade id #155873407
Max drawdown($85)
Time5/1/26 12:33
Quant open20
Worst price1.36048
Drawdown as % of equity-0.16%
 ($82.40)
4/30/26 14:36 GBP/USD GBP/USD LONG 80 1.35948 5/1 8:41 1.36401 0.12%
Trade id #155855402
Max drawdown($64)
Time5/1/26 2:22
Quant open80
Worst price1.35868
Drawdown as % of equity-0.12%
 $362.40
4/30/26 10:50 USD/JPY USD/JPY SHORT 20 156.530 4/30 20:01 157.047 0.12%
Trade id #155850578
Max drawdown($66)
Time4/30/26 20:01
Quant open20
Worst price157.054
Drawdown as % of equity-0.12%
 ($64.66)
4/30/26 7:00 USD/JPY USD/JPY SHORT 20 157.139 4/30 7:04 157.170 0.01%
Trade id #155846404
Max drawdown($2)
Time4/30/26 7:04
Quant open20
Worst price157.162
Drawdown as % of equity-0.01%
 ($3.88)
4/30/26 5:13 USD/JPY USD/JPY SHORT 20 159.371 4/30 6:29 158.443 0.03%
Trade id #155845497
Max drawdown($18)
Time4/30/26 5:25
Quant open20
Worst price159.513
Drawdown as % of equity-0.03%
 $116.06
4/29/26 11:53 USD/JPY USD/JPY LONG 20 160.258 4/30 3:56 160.402 0.04%
Trade id #155834859
Max drawdown($23)
Time4/29/26 20:11
Quant open20
Worst price160.072
Drawdown as % of equity-0.04%
 $18.01
4/28/26 12:53 GBP/USD GBP/USD LONG 40 1.35162 4/29 9:47 1.34823 0.27%
Trade id #155819485
Max drawdown($143)
Time4/29/26 9:47
Quant open40
Worst price1.34804
Drawdown as % of equity-0.27%
 ($135.60)

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    5/26/2024
  • Suggested Minimum Cap
    $50,000
  • Strategy Age (days)
    748.85
  • Age
    25 months ago
  • What it trades
    Forex
  • # Trades
    1247
  • # Profitable
    466
  • % Profitable
    37.40%
  • Avg trade duration
    12.0 hours
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    14.57%
  • drawdown period
    April 28, 2025 - May 13, 2026
  • Annual Return (Compounded)
    2.9%
  • Avg win
    $181.48
  • Avg loss
    $98.36
  • Model Account Values (Raw)
  • Cash
    $57,559
  • Margin Used
    $1,615
  • Buying Power
    $56,135
  • Ratios
  • W:L ratio
    1.10:1
  • Sharpe Ratio
    0.15
  • Sortino Ratio
    0.22
  • Calmar Ratio
    0.693
  • CORRELATION STATISTICS
  • Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)
    -34.11%
  • Correlation to SP500
    0.01910
  • Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life
    40.09%
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    2.9%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
    16.80%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Futures
    n/a
  • Slump
  • Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life
    0.55%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt Since TOS Status
    n/a
  • Instruments
  • Short Options - Percent Covered
    100.00%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)
    0.029%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Options
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Stocks
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Forex
    1.00%
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    7.1%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 10% account loss
    7.00%
  • Chance of 20% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 30% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 40% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Automation
  • Percentage Signals Automated
    99.93%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 50% account loss
    n/a
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (Today)
    0
  • Popularity (Last 6 weeks)
    703
  • Trading Style
  • Any stock shorts? 0/1
    0
  • Popularity
  • C2 Score
    285
  • Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)
    325
  • Trades-Own-System Certification
  • Trades Own System?
    -
  • TOS percent
    n/a
  • Win / Loss
  • Avg Loss
    $98
  • Avg Win
    $181
  • Sum Trade PL (losers)
    $76,844.000
  • Age
  • Num Months filled monthly returns table
    26
  • Win / Loss
  • Sum Trade PL (winners)
    $84,377.000
  • # Winners
    465
  • Num Months Winners
    12
  • Dividends
  • Dividends Received in Model Acct
    0
  • Win / Loss
  • # Losers
    782
  • % Winners
    37.3%
  • Frequency
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    717.95
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    11.97
  • Avg Trade Length
    0.5 days
  • Last Trade Ago
    0
  • Leverage
  • Daily leverage (average)
    1.81
  • Daily leverage (max)
    8.57
  • Regression
  • Alpha
    0.00
  • Beta
    0.01
  • Treynor Index
    0.42
  • Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
  • MAE:Equity, average, all trades
    0.00
  • MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, all trades)
    -0.94
  • MAE:Equity, average, winning trades
    0.00
  • MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
    0.00
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades
    30.264
  • MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    0.00
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades
    0.330
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
    -1.116
  • Hold-and-Hope Ratio
    0.034
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.04818
  • SD
    0.11250
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.42829
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.41415
  • df
    23.00000
  • t
    0.60570
  • p
    0.27532
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.96766
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.81508
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.97691
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.80521
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.77159
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    2.70936
  • Upside part of mean
    0.16919
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.12101
  • Upside SD
    0.09178
  • Downside SD
    0.06245
  • N nonnegative terms
    13.00000
  • N negative terms
    11.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    24.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.14490
  • Mean of criterion
    0.04818
  • SD of predictor
    0.11681
  • SD of criterion
    0.11250
  • Covariance
    0.00027
  • r
    0.02020
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.01946
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.04536
  • Mean Square Error
    0.01323
  • DF error
    22.00000
  • t(b)
    0.09477
  • p(b)
    0.46268
  • t(a)
    0.52389
  • p(a)
    0.30280
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.40629
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.44520
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.13422
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.22494
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    2.47656
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.04536
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.04206
  • SD
    0.11079
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.37962
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.36708
  • df
    23.00000
  • t
    0.53687
  • p
    0.29826
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.01465
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.76576
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.02287
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.75704
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.66222
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    2.59438
  • Upside part of mean
    0.16478
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.12272
  • Upside SD
    0.08875
  • Downside SD
    0.06351
  • N nonnegative terms
    13.00000
  • N negative terms
    11.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    24.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.13744
  • Mean of criterion
    0.04206
  • SD of predictor
    0.11401
  • SD of criterion
    0.11079
  • Covariance
    0.00024
  • r
    0.01924
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.01870
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.03949
  • Mean Square Error
    0.01283
  • DF error
    22.00000
  • t(b)
    0.09027
  • p(b)
    0.46445
  • t(a)
    0.46459
  • p(a)
    0.32339
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.41090
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.44830
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.13678
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.21576
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    2.24933
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.03949
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.04792
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.06049
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.02232
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.04075
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    24.00000
  • Minimum
    0.95002
  • Quartile 1
    0.98485
  • Median
    1.00490
  • Quartile 3
    1.01898
  • Maximum
    1.08608
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.96916
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99546
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.01202
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.04873
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.03412
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    2.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.08333
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.07855
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -4.05379
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.03007
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.03011
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.15941
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.03074
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.03808
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    3.00000
  • Minimum
    0.01204
  • Quartile 1
    0.02138
  • Median
    0.03072
  • Quartile 3
    0.06517
  • Maximum
    0.09962
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.01204
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.03072
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.09962
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.04379
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.07510
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.07247
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    0.72749
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.72749
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    1.19808
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.04453
  • SD
    0.07211
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.61748
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.61660
  • df
    528.00000
  • t
    0.87740
  • p
    0.19033
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.76260
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.99708
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.76324
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.99644
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.92971
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    8.71276
  • Upside part of mean
    0.41730
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.37277
  • Upside SD
    0.05389
  • Downside SD
    0.04790
  • N nonnegative terms
    261.00000
  • N negative terms
    268.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    529.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.15248
  • Mean of criterion
    0.04453
  • SD of predictor
    0.16400
  • SD of criterion
    0.07211
  • Covariance
    0.00021
  • r
    0.01811
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.00796
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.04300
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00521
  • DF error
    527.00000
  • t(b)
    0.41583
  • p(b)
    0.33885
  • t(a)
    0.85140
  • p(a)
    0.19747
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.02966
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.04559
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.05663
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.14326
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    5.59136
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.04331
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.04193
  • SD
    0.07203
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.58209
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.58127
  • df
    528.00000
  • t
    0.82712
  • p
    0.20427
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.79793
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.96164
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.79852
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.96105
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.87171
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    8.64475
  • Upside part of mean
    0.41581
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.37389
  • Upside SD
    0.05359
  • Downside SD
    0.04810
  • N nonnegative terms
    261.00000
  • N negative terms
    268.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    529.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.13906
  • Mean of criterion
    0.04193
  • SD of predictor
    0.16348
  • SD of criterion
    0.07203
  • Covariance
    0.00017
  • r
    0.01471
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.00648
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.04103
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00520
  • DF error
    527.00000
  • t(b)
    0.33775
  • p(b)
    0.36784
  • t(a)
    0.80754
  • p(a)
    0.20986
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.03122
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.04418
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.05878
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.14083
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    6.46852
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.04103
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00713
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00898
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00330
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00650
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    529.00000
  • Minimum
    0.98403
  • Quartile 1
    0.99826
  • Median
    1.00006
  • Quartile 3
    1.00222
  • Maximum
    1.02382
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.99512
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99943
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00105
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.00554
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00397
  • Number outliers low
    24.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.04537
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.98950
  • Number of outliers high
    24.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.04537
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.01184
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.07977
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00436
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00625
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.00010
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00455
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00629
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    19.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00079
  • Quartile 1
    0.00249
  • Median
    0.00512
  • Quartile 3
    0.01586
  • Maximum
    0.10434
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00119
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00411
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.01030
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.04626
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.01337
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    2.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.10526
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.07823
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -0.19083
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.04166
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.05449
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.42205
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.07558
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.16323
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.07500
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.07233
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    0.69322
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    1.56352
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    8.05715
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.06658
  • SD
    0.05385
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -1.23651
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -1.22936
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    -0.87434
  • p
    0.53823
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -4.01009
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.54167
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -4.00519
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.54647
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -1.51502
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    5.82266
  • Upside part of mean
    0.25589
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.32247
  • Upside SD
    0.03103
  • Downside SD
    0.04395
  • N nonnegative terms
    54.00000
  • N negative terms
    77.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.14724
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.06658
  • SD of predictor
    0.13742
  • SD of criterion
    0.05385
  • Covariance
    -0.00039
  • r
    -0.05277
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.02067
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.06354
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00291
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.60014
  • p(b)
    0.53358
  • t(a)
    -0.83048
  • p(a)
    0.54638
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.08883
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.04748
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.21490
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.08783
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    3.22038
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.06354
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.06802
  • SD
    0.05395
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -1.26085
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -1.25356
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    -0.89155
  • p
    0.53898
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -4.03447
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.51749
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -4.02955
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.52243
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -1.54110
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    5.78570
  • Upside part of mean
    0.25538
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.32340
  • Upside SD
    0.03095
  • Downside SD
    0.04414
  • N nonnegative terms
    54.00000
  • N negative terms
    77.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.13781
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.06802
  • SD of predictor
    0.13742
  • SD of criterion
    0.05395
  • Covariance
    -0.00040
  • r
    -0.05344
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.02098
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.06513
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00292
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.60786
  • p(b)
    0.53401
  • t(a)
    -0.84994
  • p(a)
    0.54746
  • VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)
    0.00700
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.08928
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.04731
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.21675
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.08649
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    3.24206
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.06513
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00573
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00711
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00312
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00619
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    131.00000
  • Minimum
    0.98687
  • Quartile 1
    0.99895
  • Median
    0.99991
  • Quartile 3
    1.00176
  • Maximum
    1.00946
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.99583
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99953
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00059
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.00348
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00281
  • Number outliers low
    7.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.05344
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.99042
  • Number of outliers high
    3.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.02290
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.00725
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.34363
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00360
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00677
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.13470
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00362
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00488
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    9.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00035
  • Quartile 1
    0.00164
  • Median
    0.00259
  • Quartile 3
    0.00924
  • Maximum
    0.04995
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00114
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00230
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00618
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.03224
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00760
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.11111
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.04995
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.06920
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.02478
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.03656
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    1.74474
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.07430
  • Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative
    1.00%
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?
    -362065000
  • Max Equity Drawdown (num days)
    380
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    -0.03972
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    -0.03932
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    -0.78726
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    -1.21976
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    -5.53165

Strategy Description

SMARTY - The Smarter Loss-Controlled Martingale. 7% to 8% sequence failure cost instead of whole account failure of traditional Martingale. Only one open trade per currency (no active grid). Designed to Survive 9 levels (97% Success) or 10 levels (98% Success) of 2X Martingale. Additional safety features such as breakeven triggers can add additional failure levels enhancing the per sequence success rate. Net expected result: 3 to 4 failures per 97/96 successful sequences.

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Summary Statistics

Strategy began
2024-05-26
Suggested Minimum Capital
$50,000
# Trades
1247
# Profitable
466
% Profitable
37.4%
Correlation S&P500
0.019
Sharpe Ratio
0.15
Sortino Ratio
0.22
Beta
0.01
Alpha
0.00
Leverage
1.81 Average
8.57 Maximum
Summary
Higher leverage = greater risk.

More information about leverage

Collective2 calculates the maximum leverage used by a strategy in each day. We then display the average of these measurements (i.e. the average daily maximum leverage) and the greatest of these measurements (maximum daily leverage).

Leverage is the ratio of total notional value controlled by a strategy divided by its Model Account equity. Generally higher leverage implies greater risk.

Example of calculation:
The Strategy buys 100 shares of stock at $12 per share.
The Model Account equity during that day is $5,000.
The leverage is: $1200 / $5,000 = 0.24

This is a useful measurement, but it should be considered in context. This measurement doesn't take into account important factors, such as when multiple positions are held that are inversely correlated. Nor does the measurement take into account the volatility of the instruments being held.

In addition, certain asset classes are inherently more leveraged than others. For example, futures contracts are highly leveraged. Forex positions are often even more leveraged than futures.

Latest Activity

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Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.

Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.

Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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Suggested Minimum Capital

This is our estimate of the minimum amount of capital to follow a strategy, assuming you use the smallest reasonable AutoTrade Scaling % for the strategy.