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Persistence Pays

Forex · Started Nov 2022

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-1.8%
Max Drawdown
13.0%
Trades
26
Win Trades
46.2%
Profit Factor
0.70
Win Months
4.2%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20220.33.63.9
2023-0.5-1.0-9.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-10.5
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began11/11/2022
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age48 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades26
# Profitable12
% Profitable46.2%
Avg trade duration13.5 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown13.0%
drawdown periodFeb 02, 2023 - March 20, 2023
Annual Return (Compounded)-1.8%
Avg win$710
Avg loss$815

Ratios

W:L ratio0.75
Sharpe Ratio-0.66
Sortino Ratio-0.88
Calmar Ratio-0.41

Verified

C2Star0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.00
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life93.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-98.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-1.8%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-1.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity14.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss50.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$814
Avg Win$710
# Winners12
Sum Trade PL (losers)$11,403
Sum Trade PL (winners)$8,523
Num Months Winners2
# Losers14
% Winners46.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table48

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)19475.45
Avg Position Time (hrs)324.59
Avg Trade Length13.50
Last Trade Ago1341

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)2.61
Daily leverage (max)10.65

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0
Treynor Index11.18

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.05
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-5.26
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.33
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.34
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.08
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.19

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.08
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.73
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.69
df13
t-0.79
p0.64
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.12
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.52
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.15
Sortino ratio-0.89
Upside Potential Ratio0.83
Upside part of mean0.07
Downside part of mean-0.14
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms2
N negative terms12
N of observations14
Mean of predictor0.50
Mean of criterion-0.08
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance0.00
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.09
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error12
t(b)0.25
p(b)0.46
t(a)-0.78
p(a)0.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.16
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.53
Jensen alpha (a)-0.09
Mean-0.08
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.77
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.73
df13
t-0.83
p0.64
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.08
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.56
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.11
Sortino ratio-0.92
Upside Potential Ratio0.78
Upside part of mean0.07
Downside part of mean-0.15
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms2
N negative terms12
N of observations14
Mean of predictor0.46
Mean of criterion-0.08
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance0.00
r0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.10
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error12
t(b)0.28
p(b)0.46
t(a)-0.83
p(a)0.62
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.16
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.26
Jensen alpha (a)-0.10
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
Mean-0.07
SD0.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.88
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.88
df315
t-0.97
p0.83
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.90
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.67
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.91
Sortino ratio-1.11
Upside Potential Ratio3.49
Upside part of mean0.24
Downside part of mean-0.31
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms43
N negative terms273
N of observations316
Mean of predictor0.55
Mean of criterion-0.07
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.08
Covariance-0.00
r-0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.07
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error314
t(b)-0.01
p(b)0.50
t(a)-0.96
p(a)0.83
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.08
Treynor index (mean / b)811.84
Jensen alpha (a)-0.07
Mean-0.08
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.92
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.92
df315
t-1.01
p0.84
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.87
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.70
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.87
Sortino ratio-1.15
Upside Potential Ratio3.43
Upside part of mean0.23
Downside part of mean-0.31
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms43
N negative terms273
N of observations316
Mean of predictor0.51
Mean of criterion-0.08
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance0
r-0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.08
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error314
t(b)-0.00
p(b)0.50
t(a)-1.00
p(a)0.84
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.08
Treynor index (mean / b)1144.18
Jensen alpha (a)-0.08
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.06
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.37
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.99
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.37
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6775587934830592
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)6.46392906078566e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations14
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.21
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.59
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations316
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.02
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low47
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high43
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.01
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.18
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.11
Quartile 10.11
Median0.11
Quartile 30.11
Maximum0.11
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations7
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.12
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.08
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-394008000
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)46
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.05
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.05
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.47
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.77
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.05
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.05
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.41
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.63
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-4.45
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
USD/JPY long150Feb 14, 2023Mar 20, 2023($2,031)
NZD/CHF short60Feb 5, 2023Mar 10, 2023$1,487
EUR/AUD short200Feb 13, 2023Feb 17, 2023($2,739)
USD/CAD short250Feb 12, 2023Feb 17, 2023($1,721)
EUR/AUD long200Feb 13, 2023Feb 13, 2023($20)
GBP/NZD long100Feb 9, 2023Feb 9, 2023($53)
GBP/JPY short40Jan 24, 2023Feb 9, 2023$364
EUR/GBP long60Jan 31, 2023Feb 3, 2023$1,249
AUD/CAD long60Feb 1, 2023Feb 3, 2023($647)
USD/CHF short40Jan 16, 2023Feb 3, 2023$289
AUD/CAD long60Jan 15, 2023Jan 31, 2023$229
USD/CAD long40Jan 18, 2023Jan 26, 2023($518)
AUD/USD long50Jan 15, 2023Jan 26, 2023$700
EUR/JPY short40Jan 4, 2023Jan 10, 2023($351)
AUD/CAD long50Jan 2, 2023Jan 10, 2023($88)
AUD/USD long40Dec 29, 2022Jan 10, 2023$460
NZD/CHF short40Dec 15, 2022Jan 10, 2023$98
USD/CAD long50Jan 3, 2023Jan 4, 2023($635)
AUD/CHF short30Nov 11, 2022Jan 3, 2023($77)
USD/CAD long50Nov 28, 2022Dec 27, 2022$15
AUD/USD long40Nov 30, 2022Dec 20, 2022($684)
AUD/NZD short60Nov 11, 2022Dec 13, 2022$1,214
CAD/CHF short60Nov 27, 2022Dec 7, 2022$1,395
CAD/JPY long50Nov 22, 2022Nov 24, 2022($574)
GBP/CAD long40Nov 14, 2022Nov 23, 2022$1,154
NZD/CAD short140Nov 17, 2022Nov 18, 2022($594)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.