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Schulenberg with futures

Futures · Started Oct 2022

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
6.2%
Max Drawdown
12.0%
Trades
44
Win Trades
77.3%
Profit Factor
1.90
Win Months
20.8%
Subscribe $20/mo

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2022-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.2
202310.3-3.11.42.0-3.9-0.1-0.12.5-6.522.92.00.628.1
20241.1-1.6-1.91.6-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.10.30.00.00.0-0.7
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/19/2022
Suggested Minimum Capital$80,000
Age48 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades44
# Profitable34
% Profitable77.3%
Avg trade duration1.1 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown12.0%
drawdown periodMay 16, 2023 - Oct 03, 2023
Annual Return (Compounded)6.2%
Avg win$1,077
Avg loss$1,878

Ratios

W:L ratio1.95
Sharpe Ratio0.50
Sortino Ratio0.80
Calmar Ratio1.19

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.00
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life109.6%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-82.7%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)6.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)6.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity3.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.7%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss7.5%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,878
Avg Win$1,077
# Winners34
Sum Trade PL (losers)$18,783
Sum Trade PL (winners)$36,616
Num Months Winners10
# Losers10
% Winners77.3%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table48

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1532.12
Avg Position Time (hrs)25.53
Avg Trade Length1.10
Last Trade Ago740

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)3.52
Daily leverage (max)5.47

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0
Treynor Index-7.12

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.03
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.05
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades2.95
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.62
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.72
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.41
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.33

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.11
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.72
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.70
df24
t1.04
p0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.09
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.67
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.07
Sortino ratio1.91
Upside Potential Ratio3.30
Upside part of mean0.19
Downside part of mean-0.08
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms13
N of observations25
Mean of predictor0.34
Mean of criterion0.11
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance-0.00
r-0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.15
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error23
t(b)-0.64
p(b)0.74
t(a)1.21
p(a)0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.41
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.86
Jensen alpha (a)0.15
Mean0.10
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.69
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.67
df24
t1.00
p0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.06
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.70
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.04
Sortino ratio1.68
Upside Potential Ratio3.06
Upside part of mean0.18
Downside part of mean-0.08
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms13
N of observations25
Mean of predictor0.33
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance-0.00
r-0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.13
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error23
t(b)-0.59
p(b)0.72
t(a)1.15
p(a)0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.38
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.85
Jensen alpha (a)0.13
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0.10
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.99
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.98
df562
t1.45
p0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.32
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.35
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.32
Sortino ratio1.62
Upside Potential Ratio5.04
Upside part of mean0.31
Downside part of mean-0.21
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms62
N negative terms501
N of observations563
Mean of predictor0.34
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.10
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error561
t(b)0.47
p(b)0.32
t(a)1.39
p(a)0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.23
Treynor index (mean / b)9.76
Jensen alpha (a)0.09
Mean0.09
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.94
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.94
df562
t1.38
p0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.28
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.40
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.28
Sortino ratio1.52
Upside Potential Ratio4.93
Upside part of mean0.30
Downside part of mean-0.21
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms62
N negative terms501
N of observations563
Mean of predictor0.32
Mean of criterion0.09
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.09
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error561
t(b)0.48
p(b)0.32
t(a)1.32
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.22
Treynor index (mean / b)9.05
Jensen alpha (a)0.09
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.49
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.47
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6784120961105920
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)3.90844629448172e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations25
Minimum0.94
Quartile 11
Median1.00
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.18
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.10
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.13
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations563
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low42
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high65
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.44
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.27
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.03
Quartile 10.04
Median0.05
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.08
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.08
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations13
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.11
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.07
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high0.11
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.00
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.10
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.09
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-382825312
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)140
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.13
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.76
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.76
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.83
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.13
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.19
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.74
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal10.54
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@MES U4long7Sep 16, 2024Sep 16, 2024$263
@MES M4long7May 13, 2024May 13, 2024$27
@MES M4long4Apr 10, 2024Apr 11, 2024$5
@MES M4long7Apr 9, 2024Apr 10, 2024$412
@MES M4long7Apr 4, 2024Apr 5, 2024$867
@MES M4long8Mar 26, 2024Mar 26, 2024$70
@MES M4short16Mar 19, 2024Mar 20, 2024($1,459)
@MES H4long16Feb 19, 2024Feb 21, 2024($1,779)
@MES H4long8Feb 15, 2024Feb 16, 2024$990
@MES H4short8Feb 6, 2024Feb 6, 2024($370)
@MES H4long12Jan 2, 2024Jan 8, 2024$856
@MES Z3long7Dec 5, 2023Dec 5, 2023$482
@MES Z3long6Nov 27, 2023Nov 29, 2023$83
@MES Z3long8Nov 12, 2023Nov 14, 2023$411
@MES Z3long15Nov 10, 2023Nov 10, 2023$1,032
@MES Z3long10Oct 30, 2023Oct 31, 2023$938
@MES Z3long16Oct 27, 2023Oct 30, 2023$1,921
@MES Z3long17Oct 25, 2023Oct 25, 2023$379
@MES Z3short17Oct 17, 2023Oct 17, 2023$1,278
@MES Z3long13Oct 12, 2023Oct 13, 2023$878
@MES Z3long13Oct 9, 2023Oct 9, 2023$2,990
@MES Z3short13Oct 5, 2023Oct 5, 2023$667
@MES Z3short13Oct 2, 2023Oct 3, 2023$4,892
@MES Z3long13Sep 20, 2023Sep 21, 2023($5,265)
@MES Z3long15Sep 18, 2023Sep 18, 2023$601
@MES U3long14Sep 8, 2023Sep 10, 2023$456
@MES U3long10Aug 21, 2023Aug 22, 2023$1,613
@MES M3short11May 16, 2023May 19, 2023($4,193)
@MES M3long10May 3, 2023May 5, 2023$1,663
@MES M3long11Apr 12, 2023Apr 13, 2023$1,362

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.