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TQQQSniper 30K to 150k

Equity · Stocks · Started Aug 2022

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
1.6%
Max Drawdown
18.9%
Trades
407
Win Trades
67.1%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
21.6%

About this strategy

90% of the account will be used per trade. There will be no swings, only TQQQ/SQQQ stock day trading. The expected drawdown based on backtesting is around 10% of the account size. Max loss per trade is 0.75% of trade value.

30k to 150k over 1.5 years

Trend-following

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20220.30.72.012.80.316.5
20231.53.1-0.42.4-1.40.5-2.7-8.10.9-4.41.5-0.3-7.5
2024-1.9-0.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-2.8
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began8/16/2022
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age51 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades407
# Profitable273
% Profitable67.1%
Avg trade duration1.3 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown18.9%
drawdown periodApril 26, 2023 - Jan 21, 2024
Annual Return (Compounded)1.6%
Avg win$266
Avg loss$478

Ratios

W:L ratio1.13
Sharpe Ratio-0.04
Sortino Ratio-0.05
Calmar Ratio0.71

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life77.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-26.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)1.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)3.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity20.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss9.5%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated94.8%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)336
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$478
Avg Win$266
# Winners273
Sum Trade PL (losers)$64,058
Sum Trade PL (winners)$72,587
Num Months Winners11
# Losers134
% Winners67.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table51

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)75.75
Avg Position Time (hrs)1.26
Avg Trade Length0.10
Last Trade Ago959

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)2.53
Daily leverage (max)6.67

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.01
Treynor Index-0.16

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades0.46
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.10
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.10
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.23
Hold-and-Hope Ratio2.19

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.08
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.73
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.70
df19
t0.94
p0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.26
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.83
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.23
Sortino ratio1.43
Upside Potential Ratio3.18
Upside part of mean0.17
Downside part of mean-0.09
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms11
N of observations20
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion0.08
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance-0.00
r-0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.09
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error18
t(b)-0.38
p(b)0.54
t(a)1.00
p(a)0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.27
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.34
Jensen alpha (a)0.09
Mean0.07
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.69
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.66
df19
t0.89
p0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.21
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.87
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.19
Sortino ratio1.30
Upside Potential Ratio3.04
Upside part of mean0.16
Downside part of mean-0.09
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms11
N of observations20
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.07
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance-0.00
r-0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error18
t(b)-0.36
p(b)0.54
t(a)0.94
p(a)0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.26
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.34
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean0.08
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.63
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.63
df439
t0.82
p0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.88
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.15
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.88
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.15
Sortino ratio0.88
Upside Potential Ratio6.77
Upside part of mean0.59
Downside part of mean-0.51
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms184
N negative terms256
N of observations440
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion0.08
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error438
t(b)0.27
p(b)0.39
t(a)0.80
p(a)0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.26
Treynor index (mean / b)9.15
Jensen alpha (a)0.07
Mean0.07
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.57
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.57
df439
t0.74
p0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.94
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.09
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.94
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.09
Sortino ratio0.79
Upside Potential Ratio6.66
Upside part of mean0.58
Downside part of mean-0.51
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms184
N negative terms256
N of observations440
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.07
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error438
t(b)0.23
p(b)0.41
t(a)0.73
p(a)0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.25
Treynor index (mean / b)9.91
Jensen alpha (a)0.07
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.02
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.16
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.16
df130
t-0.11
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.93
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.62
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.93
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.62
Sortino ratio-0.21
Upside Potential Ratio5.31
Upside part of mean0.40
Downside part of mean-0.42
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms37
N negative terms94
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.56
Mean of criterion-0.02
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)0.43
p(b)0.48
t(a)-0.18
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.26
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.88
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
Mean-0.02
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.21
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.21
df130
t-0.15
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.98
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.57
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.98
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.57
Sortino ratio-0.28
Upside Potential Ratio5.23
Upside part of mean0.40
Downside part of mean-0.42
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms37
N negative terms94
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.53
Mean of criterion-0.02
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)0.43
p(b)0.48
t(a)-0.21
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.07
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.26
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.16
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations20
Minimum0.95
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.12
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.36
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations440
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low59
Percentage of outliers low0.13
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high38
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.50
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.42
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low20
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high27
Percentage of outliers high0.21
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-3.06
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.22
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.11
Quartile 10.11
Median0.11
Quartile 30.11
Maximum0.11
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations13
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.13
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.07
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high0.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.38
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.13
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.33
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations6
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.05
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.04
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-340054432
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)270
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.11
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.10
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.98
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.93
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.11
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.10
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.76
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.47
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal6.81
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.13
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.16
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.53

Trading record

Placed 406 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
TQQQ long728Feb 28, 2024Feb 28, 2024($362)
TQQQ long720Feb 27, 2024Feb 27, 2024$513
SQQQ long3521Feb 21, 2024Feb 21, 2024($498)
TQQQ long747Feb 15, 2024Feb 15, 2024($162)
TQQQ long753Feb 14, 2024Feb 14, 2024$274
TQQQ long756Feb 14, 2024Feb 14, 2024$433
TQQQ long758Feb 14, 2024Feb 14, 2024($839)
TQQQ long783Feb 13, 2024Feb 13, 2024($694)
TQQQ long753Feb 12, 2024Feb 12, 2024($803)
SQQQ long4109Feb 12, 2024Feb 12, 2024($169)
TQQQ long771Feb 8, 2024Feb 9, 2024$1,113
TQQQ long778Feb 7, 2024Feb 7, 2024($176)
TQQQ long806Feb 6, 2024Feb 6, 2024$325
TQQQ long789Feb 5, 2024Feb 5, 2024$603
TQQQ long778Feb 2, 2024Feb 2, 2024$594
TQQQ long831Feb 1, 2024Feb 1, 2024$394
TQQQ long845Feb 1, 2024Feb 1, 2024($689)
TQQQ long845Jan 31, 2024Jan 31, 2024($808)
TQQQ long849Jan 31, 2024Jan 31, 2024$776
TQQQ long797Jan 29, 2024Jan 29, 2024$553
TQQQ long804Jan 26, 2024Jan 26, 2024($399)
TQQQ long797Jan 25, 2024Jan 25, 2024($762)
TQQQ long738Jan 24, 2024Jan 24, 2024$460
TQQQ long762Jan 23, 2024Jan 23, 2024$254
TQQQ long766Jan 22, 2024Jan 22, 2024($296)
SQQQ long3037Jan 18, 2024Jan 19, 2024($2,829)
TQQQ long801Jan 18, 2024Jan 18, 2024$251
TQQQ long822Jan 16, 2024Jan 16, 2024($663)
TQQQ long825Jan 12, 2024Jan 12, 2024$218
TQQQ long826Jan 10, 2024Jan 10, 2024$391

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.