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These are hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Learn more

Trades-Own-Strategy Certification

This system has earned Trades-Own-Strategy (TOS) Certification. This means that the manager of this system trades his own strategy in a real-life, funded brokerage account.

Trades-Own-Strategy (TOS) Certification Details
Certification process started 03/22/2017
Most recent certification approved 3/22/17 15:25 ET
Trades at broker Gain Capital (Futures, Gen3)
Scaling percentage used 100%
# trading signals issued by system since certification 620
# trading signals executed in manager's Gain Capital (Futures, Gen3) account 610
Percent signals followed since 03/22/2017 98.4%
This information was last updated 11/13/19 21:30 ET

Warning: System trading results are still hypothetical.

Even though the system developer is currently trading his own system in a real-life brokerage account, the trading results presented on this Web site must still be regarded as purely hypothetical results. This is because (among other reasons) the system developer may not have traded all signals, particularly those that occurred before 03/22/2017, and the system developer's results may not match the system results presented here. In addition, not all subscribers have received the same trades or prices as the system manager has. For these reasons, and others, it is extremely important you remember the following:

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

You may be interested to learn more technical details about how Quant Algorithms calculates the hypothetical results you see on this web site.

Swing Trader ES TY
(110145229)

Started: 03/2017
Futures
Last trade: Today

Subscriptions not available

No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.

Subscription terms. You can subscribe to this system for free.

C2Star

C2Star is a certification program for trading strategies. In order to become "C2Star Certified," a strategy must apply tight risk controls, and must exhibit excellent performance characteristics, including low drawdowns.

You can read more about C2Star certification requirements here.

Note that: all trading strategies are risky, and C2Star Certification does not imply that a strategy is low risk.

107.4%
Annual Return (Compounded)

Rate of Return Calculations

Overview

To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.

How Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return is calculated

= ((Ending_equity / Starting_equity) ^ (1 / age_in_years)) - 1

Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in marked-to-market equity calculations.

All results are hypothetical.

(51.5%)
Max Drawdown
293
Num Trades
69.6%
Win Trades
1.3 : 1
Profit Factor
63.6%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and Interactive Brokers commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2017              +12.9%+64.1%+33.4%+1.8%+6.0%+22.5%(2.2%)+20.0%+4.4%+3.1%+312.7%
2018+30.7%(17.5%)(1.2%)(22.3%)+8.2%(7.1%)+6.5%+35.9%(4.2%)(16.4%)(10.1%)+6.9%(7.2%)
2019+2.8%(3.8%)+33.1%+16.3%(15.9%)+24.4%(1.3%)+10.5%+1.6%(5.4%)+10.8%      +86.0%

Model Account Details

A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

Trading Record

This strategy has placed 610 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

Download CSV
Long
Short
Both
Win
Loss
Both
Opened Date/TimeSymbolDescriptionSideQtyAvg PriceClosed Date/TimeAvg PriceDrawdownP/L
11/12/19 15:57 @ESZ9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 4 3090.00 11/13 12:40 3094.50 n/a $884
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $16.08
11/8/19 15:59 @ESZ9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 4 3090.26 11/12 9:46 3093.00 3.03%
Trade id #126137129
Max drawdown($3,152)
Time11/11/19 0:00
Quant open4
Worst price3074.50
Drawdown as % of equity-3.03%
$532
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $16.08
11/5/19 15:57 @ESZ9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 4 3072.25 11/7 16:09 3084.75 1.83%
Trade id #126082716
Max drawdown($1,850)
Time11/6/19 0:00
Quant open4
Worst price3063.00
Drawdown as % of equity-1.83%
$2,484
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $16.08
10/31/19 15:54 @ESZ9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 4 3030.04 11/5 9:33 3076.50 0.39%
Trade id #126029788
Max drawdown($357)
Time10/31/19 15:56
Quant open4
Worst price3028.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.39%
$9,276
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $16.08
10/30/19 15:55 @ESZ9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 4 3044.25 10/31 10:23 3026.91 4.99%
Trade id #126011376
Max drawdown($4,800)
Time10/31/19 0:00
Quant open4
Worst price3020.25
Drawdown as % of equity-4.99%
($3,484)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $16.08
10/29/19 15:55 @ESZ9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 4 3036.00 10/30 14:53 3038.70 2.69%
Trade id #125995858
Max drawdown($2,550)
Time10/30/19 0:00
Quant open4
Worst price3023.25
Drawdown as % of equity-2.69%
$524
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $16.08
10/24/19 15:54 @ESZ9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 4 3009.50 10/29 9:30 3034.04 2.07%
Trade id #125939865
Max drawdown($1,900)
Time10/24/19 19:51
Quant open4
Worst price3000.00
Drawdown as % of equity-2.07%
$4,892
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $16.08
10/4/19 10:01 @TYZ9 US T-NOTE 10 YR LONG 4 131 40/64 10/28 8:09 129 18/64 10.5%
Trade id #125631089
Max drawdown($9,875)
Time10/28/19 5:45
Quant open4
Worst price129 10/64
Drawdown as % of equity-10.50%
($9,400)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $24.00
10/22/19 15:55 @ESZ9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 4 2997.75 10/23 16:59 3005.75 3.49%
Trade id #125905497
Max drawdown($3,150)
Time10/22/19 20:13
Quant open4
Worst price2982.00
Drawdown as % of equity-3.49%
$1,584
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $16.08
10/21/19 15:54 @ESZ9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 4 3006.50 10/22 9:31 3012.12 4.07%
Trade id #125883353
Max drawdown($3,650)
Time10/22/19 0:00
Quant open4
Worst price2988.25
Drawdown as % of equity-4.07%
$1,107
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $16.08
10/18/19 15:54 @ESZ9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 4 2991.50 10/21 9:31 3000.50 1.53%
Trade id #125858554
Max drawdown($1,350)
Time10/18/19 16:01
Quant open4
Worst price2984.75
Drawdown as % of equity-1.53%
$1,784
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $16.08
10/1/19 15:54 @ESZ9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 4 2943.25 10/2 9:30 2920.59 13.9%
Trade id #125581951
Max drawdown($13,850)
Time10/2/19 0:00
Quant open4
Worst price2874.00
Drawdown as % of equity-13.90%
($4,548)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $16.08
9/27/19 15:54 @ESZ9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 4 2962.25 10/1 9:31 2988.75 0.9%
Trade id #125539421
Max drawdown($850)
Time9/27/19 15:56
Quant open4
Worst price2958.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.90%
$5,284
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $16.08
9/24/19 15:55 @ESZ9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 4 2968.75 9/27 9:30 2986.11 3.23%
Trade id #125490992
Max drawdown($3,000)
Time9/25/19 0:00
Quant open4
Worst price2953.75
Drawdown as % of equity-3.23%
$3,455
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $16.08
9/13/19 15:56 @ESZ9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 4 3009.75 9/16 12:00 2995.25 4.85%
Trade id #125352963
Max drawdown($4,350)
Time9/16/19 0:28
Quant open4
Worst price2988.00
Drawdown as % of equity-4.85%
($2,916)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $16.08
9/12/19 15:54 @ESU9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 4 3013.50 9/13 9:51 3015.90 2.09%
Trade id #125334120
Max drawdown($2,000)
Time9/13/19 0:00
Quant open4
Worst price3003.50
Drawdown as % of equity-2.09%
$465
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $16.08
8/29/19 8:18 @TYZ9 US T-NOTE 10 YR LONG 4 131 52/64 9/13 8:40 129 4/64 11.32%
Trade id #125137511
Max drawdown($10,935)
Time9/13/19 8:40
Quant open4
Worst price129 5/64
Drawdown as % of equity-11.32%
($11,024)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $24.00
9/11/19 15:54 @ESU9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 4 2998.75 9/11 16:15 3002.25 0.42%
Trade id #125314945
Max drawdown($400)
Time9/11/19 15:57
Quant open4
Worst price2996.75
Drawdown as % of equity-0.42%
$684
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $16.08
9/10/19 15:55 @ESU9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 4 2974.28 9/11 9:31 2978.75 0.79%
Trade id #125295834
Max drawdown($755)
Time9/10/19 15:56
Quant open4
Worst price2970.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.79%
$878
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $16.08
9/9/19 15:55 @ESU9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 4 2978.75 9/10 9:42 2960.19 4.22%
Trade id #125280881
Max drawdown($4,300)
Time9/10/19 0:00
Quant open4
Worst price2957.25
Drawdown as % of equity-4.22%
($3,727)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $16.08
9/6/19 15:55 @ESU9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 4 2977.50 9/9 9:30 2988.53 0.15%
Trade id #125254575
Max drawdown($150)
Time9/6/19 15:56
Quant open4
Worst price2976.75
Drawdown as % of equity-0.15%
$2,190
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $16.08
9/5/19 15:55 @ESU9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 4 2978.25 9/6 9:34 2977.50 1.72%
Trade id #125237926
Max drawdown($1,750)
Time9/5/19 17:00
Quant open4
Worst price2969.50
Drawdown as % of equity-1.72%
($166)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $16.08
9/4/19 15:54 @ESU9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 4 2938.25 9/5 9:31 2966.50 0.35%
Trade id #125222254
Max drawdown($350)
Time9/4/19 18:23
Quant open4
Worst price2936.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.35%
$5,634
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $16.08
9/3/19 15:56 @ESU9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 4 2906.50 9/4 9:30 2929.50 0.94%
Trade id #125203366
Max drawdown($900)
Time9/3/19 19:56
Quant open4
Worst price2902.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.94%
$4,584
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $16.08
9/3/19 9:32 @ESU9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 4 2904.38 9/3 9:36 2907.90 0.61%
Trade id #125193737
Max drawdown($575)
Time9/3/19 9:35
Quant open4
Worst price2901.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.61%
$688
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $16.08
8/30/19 15:55 @ESU9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 4 2928.26 9/2 11:51 2898.41 8.04%
Trade id #125167896
Max drawdown($7,851)
Time9/2/19 11:51
Quant open4
Worst price2889.00
Drawdown as % of equity-8.04%
($5,985)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $16.08
8/18/19 18:00 @TYU9 US T-NOTE 10 YR LONG 4 130 49/64 8/29 8:14 131 9/64 3.68%
Trade id #124980423
Max drawdown($3,564)
Time8/23/19 0:00
Quant open4
Worst price129 56/64
Drawdown as % of equity-3.68%
$1,476
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $24.00
8/7/19 12:01 @TYU9 US T-NOTE 10 YR LONG 4 130 31/64 8/15 11:00 130 50/64 4.55%
Trade id #124816529
Max drawdown($4,436)
Time8/7/19 12:01
Quant open4
Worst price129 24/64
Drawdown as % of equity-4.55%
$1,164
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $24.00
6/4/19 18:11 @TYU9 US T-NOTE 10 YR LONG 4 126 52/64 8/5 10:20 129 45/64 1.73%
Trade id #123939895
Max drawdown($1,310)
Time6/4/19 18:11
Quant open4
Worst price126 31/64
Drawdown as % of equity-1.73%
$11,540
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $24.00
7/31/19 15:54 @ESU9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 4 2984.50 8/1 13:41 2971.75 8.77%
Trade id #124704656
Max drawdown($8,000)
Time7/31/19 15:54
Quant open4
Worst price2944.50
Drawdown as % of equity-8.77%
($2,566)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $16.08

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    3/9/2017
  • Suggested Minimum Cap
    $100,000
  • Strategy Age (days)
    979
  • Age
    33 months ago
  • What it trades
    Futures
  • # Trades
    293
  • # Profitable
    204
  • % Profitable
    69.60%
  • Avg trade duration
    4.7 days
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    51.55%
  • drawdown period
    Jan 28, 2018 - May 02, 2018
  • Annual Return (Compounded)
    106.3%
  • Avg win
    $1,995
  • Avg loss
    $3,439
  • Model Account Values (Raw)
  • Cash
    $115,733
  • Margin Used
    $24,712
  • Buying Power
    $91,321
  • Ratios
  • W:L ratio
    1.33:1
  • Sharpe Ratio
    1.45
  • Sortino Ratio
    2.22
  • Calmar Ratio
    2.616
  • CORRELATION STATISTICS
  • Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)
    572.27%
  • Correlation to SP500
    0.16430
  • Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life
    30.83%
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    106.3%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
    n/a
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Futures
    1.00%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life
    n/a
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)
    1.063%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Options
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Stocks
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Forex
    n/a
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    114.1%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 10% account loss
    100.00%
  • Chance of 20% account loss
    100.00%
  • Chance of 30% account loss
    100.00%
  • Chance of 40% account loss
    6.67%
  • Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Automation
  • Percentage Signals Automated
    223.00%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 50% account loss
    n/a
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (Today)
    735
  • Popularity (Last 6 weeks)
    882
  • Trading Style
  • Any stock shorts? 0/1
    0
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)
    770
  • Management
  • No Subs Allowed Flag (1: no subs)
    0
  • Strat abandoned?
    0
  • Trades-Own-System Certification
  • Trades Own System?
    Yes
  • TOS percent
    100%
  • Win / Loss
  • Avg Loss
    $3,439
  • Avg Win
    $1,994
  • Sum Trade PL (losers)
    $306,075.000
  • AUM
  • AUM (AutoTrader num accounts)
    17
  • Age
  • Num Months (Age strategy)
    33
  • Win / Loss
  • Sum Trade PL (winners)
    $406,858.000
  • # Winners
    204
  • Num Months Winners
    21
  • Dividends
  • Dividends Received in Model Acct
    0
  • AUM
  • AUM (AutoTrader live capital)
    1271870
  • Win / Loss
  • # Losers
    89
  • % Winners
    69.6%
  • Frequency
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    6741.58
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    112.36
  • Avg Trade Length
    4.7 days
  • Last Trade Ago
    0
  • Regression
  • Alpha
    0.21
  • Beta
    0.57
  • Treynor Index
    0.39
  • Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
  • MAE:Equity, average, all trades
    0.04
  • MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats
    20.73
  • MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
    -
  • MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats
    23.98
  • MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, all trades)
    0.22
  • MAE:Equity, average, winning trades
    0.02
  • MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
    0.07
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades
    7.533
  • MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    0.05
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades
    0.643
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
    -1.253
  • Hold-and-Hope Ratio
    0.133
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.98369
  • SD
    0.66397
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.48152
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.44282
  • df
    29.00000
  • t
    2.34249
  • p
    0.01311
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.17347
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.76627
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.14881
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.73682
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    4.13978
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    5.75060
  • Upside part of mean
    1.36645
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.38276
  • Upside SD
    0.67107
  • Downside SD
    0.23762
  • N nonnegative terms
    20.00000
  • N negative terms
    10.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    30.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.10716
  • Mean of criterion
    0.98369
  • SD of predictor
    0.11579
  • SD of criterion
    0.66397
  • Covariance
    0.02646
  • r
    0.34417
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    1.97363
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.77219
  • Mean Square Error
    0.40252
  • DF error
    28.00000
  • t(b)
    1.93968
  • p(b)
    0.03128
  • t(a)
    1.85708
  • p(a)
    0.03692
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.11063
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    4.05789
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.07955
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    1.62393
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.49841
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.77219
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.77516
  • SD
    0.58560
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.32369
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.28911
  • df
    29.00000
  • t
    2.09294
  • p
    0.02261
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.02797
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.59827
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.00589
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.57233
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    2.97671
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    4.56902
  • Upside part of mean
    1.18981
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.41465
  • Upside SD
    0.56014
  • Downside SD
    0.26041
  • N nonnegative terms
    20.00000
  • N negative terms
    10.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    30.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.10013
  • Mean of criterion
    0.77516
  • SD of predictor
    0.11731
  • SD of criterion
    0.58560
  • Covariance
    0.02493
  • r
    0.36289
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    1.81160
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.59376
  • Mean Square Error
    0.30840
  • DF error
    28.00000
  • t(b)
    2.06073
  • p(b)
    0.02436
  • t(a)
    1.63980
  • p(a)
    0.05612
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.01084
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    3.61237
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.14796
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    1.33547
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.42789
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.59376
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.19222
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.24587
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.05550
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.11889
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    30.00000
  • Minimum
    0.78770
  • Quartile 1
    0.97377
  • Median
    1.04295
  • Quartile 3
    1.16251
  • Maximum
    1.58383
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.88311
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.01536
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.09808
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.32503
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.18873
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    2.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.06667
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.56993
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -1.23984
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.08994
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.09581
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.41673
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.11736
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.14385
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    4.00000
  • Minimum
    0.05122
  • Quartile 1
    0.11099
  • Median
    0.15587
  • Quartile 3
    0.22359
  • Maximum
    0.35189
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.05122
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.13091
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.18083
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.35189
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.11261
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    2.37764
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    1.17093
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    3.32754
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    3.32754
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    4.76243
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.90681
  • SD
    0.45472
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.99420
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.99195
  • df
    663.00000
  • t
    3.17470
  • p
    0.00078
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.75765
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    3.22932
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.75613
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    3.22776
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    3.13044
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    10.54140
  • Upside part of mean
    3.05357
  • Downside part of mean
    -2.14676
  • Upside SD
    0.35452
  • Downside SD
    0.28967
  • N nonnegative terms
    406.00000
  • N negative terms
    258.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    664.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.11585
  • Mean of criterion
    0.90681
  • SD of predictor
    0.14027
  • SD of criterion
    0.45472
  • Covariance
    0.01148
  • r
    0.18006
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.58374
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.83900
  • Mean Square Error
    0.20037
  • DF error
    662.00000
  • t(b)
    4.70990
  • p(b)
    0.00000
  • t(a)
    2.98062
  • p(a)
    0.00149
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.34038
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.82710
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.28635
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    1.39201
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    1.55344
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.83918
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.80311
  • SD
    0.45198
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.77689
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.77488
  • df
    663.00000
  • t
    2.82875
  • p
    0.00241
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.54140
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    3.01109
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.54002
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    3.00974
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    2.69970
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    10.06230
  • Upside part of mean
    2.99335
  • Downside part of mean
    -2.19023
  • Upside SD
    0.34343
  • Downside SD
    0.29748
  • N nonnegative terms
    406.00000
  • N negative terms
    258.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    664.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.10599
  • Mean of criterion
    0.80311
  • SD of predictor
    0.14042
  • SD of criterion
    0.45198
  • Covariance
    0.01149
  • r
    0.18103
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.58267
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.74135
  • Mean Square Error
    0.19789
  • DF error
    662.00000
  • t(b)
    4.73597
  • p(b)
    0.00000
  • t(a)
    2.65020
  • p(a)
    0.00412
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.34109
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.82424
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.19208
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    1.29063
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    1.37834
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.74135
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.04196
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.05302
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01586
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.03326
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    664.00000
  • Minimum
    0.89426
  • Quartile 1
    0.99104
  • Median
    1.00344
  • Quartile 3
    1.01655
  • Maximum
    1.14293
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.96972
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99808
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00973
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.03631
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.02551
  • Number outliers low
    34.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.05120
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.94016
  • Number of outliers high
    20.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.03012
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.08415
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.13560
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.02560
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.03894
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.25337
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.02711
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.03439
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    28.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00293
  • Quartile 1
    0.01556
  • Median
    0.03940
  • Quartile 3
    0.09799
  • Maximum
    0.47112
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00983
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.02344
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.06123
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.20519
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.08242
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    3.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.10714
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.31381
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.19313
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.21416
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.32459
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.37594
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.24811
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.44632
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    2.62596
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    1.23248
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    2.61606
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    6.00656
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    23.24500
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.83471
  • SD
    0.33018
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    2.52804
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    2.51342
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    1.78759
  • p
    0.42256
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.26549
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    5.31209
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.27517
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    5.30202
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    4.03430
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    11.36800
  • Upside part of mean
    2.35208
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.51737
  • Upside SD
    0.26084
  • Downside SD
    0.20690
  • N nonnegative terms
    80.00000
  • N negative terms
    51.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.15036
  • Mean of criterion
    0.83471
  • SD of predictor
    0.14181
  • SD of criterion
    0.33018
  • Covariance
    0.00076
  • r
    0.01634
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.03803
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.82899
  • Mean Square Error
    0.10984
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    0.18556
  • p(b)
    0.48960
  • t(a)
    1.76493
  • p(a)
    0.40263
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.36750
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.44356
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.10033
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    1.75831
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    21.94710
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.82899
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.77965
  • SD
    0.32910
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    2.36902
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    2.35533
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    1.67515
  • p
    0.42732
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.42207
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    5.15126
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.43122
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    5.14188
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    3.69770
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    10.99840
  • Upside part of mean
    2.31897
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.53932
  • Upside SD
    0.25563
  • Downside SD
    0.21085
  • N nonnegative terms
    80.00000
  • N negative terms
    51.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.14031
  • Mean of criterion
    0.77965
  • SD of predictor
    0.14218
  • SD of criterion
    0.32910
  • Covariance
    0.00067
  • r
    0.01428
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.03305
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.77501
  • Mean Square Error
    0.10912
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    0.16221
  • p(b)
    0.49091
  • t(a)
    1.65584
  • p(a)
    0.40848
  • VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)
    0.04200
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.37012
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.43623
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.15103
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    1.70105
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    23.58720
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.77501
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.03001
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.03819
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01121
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.02361
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    131.00000
  • Minimum
    0.94211
  • Quartile 1
    0.99442
  • Median
    1.00250
  • Quartile 3
    1.01276
  • Maximum
    1.06845
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.97867
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99877
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00806
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.02739
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.01834
  • Number outliers low
    8.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.06107
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.95801
  • Number of outliers high
    4.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.03053
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.05954
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -0.06988
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.01639
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.02228
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.02205
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.01958
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.02781
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    8.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00071
  • Quartile 1
    0.02233
  • Median
    0.04434
  • Quartile 3
    0.07754
  • Maximum
    0.12695
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00696
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.02749
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.06437
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.11404
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.05521
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative
    0.25%
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?
    -263034000
  • Max Equity Drawdown (num days)
    94
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.95344
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    1.18070
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    9.30055
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    10.35360
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    30.91940

Strategy Description

Consult developer for pricing details.

Summary Statistics

Includes fees & commissions
Strategy began
2017-03-09
Suggested Minimum Capital
$100,000
# Trades
293
# Profitable
204
% Profitable
69.6%
Correlation S&P500
0.164
Sharpe Ratio
1.45
Sortino Ratio
2.22
Beta
0.57
Alpha
0.21

Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.

Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.

Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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Suggested Minimum Capital

This is our estimate of the minimum amount of capital to follow a strategy, assuming you use the smallest reasonable AutoTrade Scaling % for the strategy.

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