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OneTrade

Futures · Futures · Started May 2023

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
20.2%
Max Drawdown
48.8%
Trades
44
Win Trades
72.7%
Profit Factor
2.30
Win Months
39.0%

About this strategy


OneTrade is a long/short system which utilizes the GLOBEX futures product MES, or micro e-mini S&P 500 index, to invest in the market and to measure performance against over time. Typical hold times are one day or longer. This is not a day trading system and the trades taken by the system can certainly be “off” compared to the medium-term action in the base index. Signals are broadcast before the futures market opens, or 5PM Central USA time.

Financials / Indexes

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20230.09.93.8-2.4-1.4-2.4-11.55.70.4
20241.46.5-0.2-0.310.71.032.2-0.74.22.51.71.473.7
20255.4-4.1-10.015.00.80.40.00.00.00.00.00.06.1
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began5/25/2023
Suggested Minimum Capital$90,000
Age41 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades44
# Profitable32
% Profitable72.7%
Avg trade duration15.1 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown48.8%
drawdown periodFeb 05, 2025 - April 09, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)20.2%
Avg win$2,639
Avg loss$3,080

Ratios

W:L ratio2.28
Sharpe Ratio0.67
Sortino Ratio1.09
Calmar Ratio1.10

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.29
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life85.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-2.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)20.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)22.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.5%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.4%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss62.5%
Chance of 20% account loss34.0%
Chance of 30% account loss11.0%
Chance of 40% account loss4.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$3,080
Avg Win$2,639
# Winners32
Sum Trade PL (losers)$36,961
Sum Trade PL (winners)$84,434
Num Months Winners17
# Losers12
% Winners72.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table41

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)21767.07
Avg Position Time (hrs)362.78
Avg Trade Length15.10
Last Trade Ago464

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)2.09
Daily leverage (max)23.23

Regression

Alpha0.03
Beta0.48
Treynor Index0.11

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.05
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.08
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.10
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.03
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades2.99
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.11
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.72
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-2.10
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.33

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.33
SD0.28
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.19
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.15
df24
t1.72
p0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.58
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.24
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.55
Sortino ratio2.44
Upside Potential Ratio3.87
Upside part of mean0.53
Downside part of mean-0.19
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms19
N negative terms6
N of observations25
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion0.33
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.28
Covariance0.01
r0.30
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.47
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.23
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error23
t(b)1.49
p(b)0.07
t(a)1.12
p(a)0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.64
Treynor index (mean / b)0.71
Jensen alpha (a)0.23
Mean0.29
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.11
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.07
df24
t1.60
p0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.49
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.32
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.46
Sortino ratio2.05
Upside Potential Ratio3.47
Upside part of mean0.50
Downside part of mean-0.20
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms19
N negative terms6
N of observations25
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.29
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance0.01
r0.32
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.49
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.19
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error23
t(b)1.62
p(b)0.06
t(a)1.01
p(a)0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.58
Treynor index (mean / b)0.60
Jensen alpha (a)0.19
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean0.32
SD0.28
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.14
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.14
df563
t1.67
p0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.47
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.20
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.47
Sortino ratio1.86
Upside Potential Ratio6.41
Upside part of mean1.11
Downside part of mean-0.79
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms261
N negative terms303
N of observations564
Mean of predictor0.28
Mean of criterion0.32
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.28
Covariance0.02
r0.31
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.52
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.18
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error562
t(b)7.85
p(b)0
t(a)0.97
p(a)0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.65
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.54
Treynor index (mean / b)0.62
Jensen alpha (a)0.18
Mean0.28
SD0.28
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.02
df563
t1.49
p0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.36
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.32
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.35
Sortino ratio1.57
Upside Potential Ratio6.01
Upside part of mean1.08
Downside part of mean-0.80
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms261
N negative terms303
N of observations564
Mean of predictor0.26
Mean of criterion0.28
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.28
Covariance0.02
r0.33
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.54
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.14
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error562
t(b)8.35
p(b)0
t(a)0.79
p(a)0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.66
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.49
Treynor index (mean / b)0.52
Jensen alpha (a)0.14
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.10
SD0.44
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.22
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.22
df130
t0.16
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.99
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.55
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.99
Sortino ratio0.38
Upside Potential Ratio4.64
Upside part of mean1.19
Downside part of mean-1.09
Upside SD0.35
Downside SD0.26
N nonnegative terms45
N negative terms86
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.50
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.44
Covariance0.04
r0.31
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.49
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.15
Mean Square Error0.17
DF error129
t(b)3.73
p(b)0.30
t(a)-0.26
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.75
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.02
Treynor index (mean / b)0.20
Jensen alpha (a)-0.15
Mean0.01
SD0.42
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.01
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.01
df130
t0.01
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.79
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.76
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.79
Sortino ratio0.02
Upside Potential Ratio4.18
Upside part of mean1.13
Downside part of mean-1.13
Upside SD0.32
Downside SD0.27
N nonnegative terms45
N negative terms86
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.47
Mean of criterion0.01
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.42
Covariance0.04
r0.34
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.53
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.24
Mean Square Error0.16
DF error129
t(b)4.13
p(b)0.29
t(a)-0.42
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.27
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.78
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.88
Treynor index (mean / b)0.01
Jensen alpha (a)-0.24
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations25
Minimum0.89
Quartile 11.00
Median1.03
Quartile 31.07
Maximum1.30
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21.02
Mean of quarter 31.06
Mean of quarter 41.11
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.89
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.30
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.01
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.11
Number of observations564
Minimum0.86
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.22
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low51
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high50
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.81
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.49
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.86
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.22
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low20
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high18
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.19
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.56
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.10
Quartile 10.11
Median0.11
Quartile 30.13
Maximum0.15
Mean of quarter 10.10
Mean of quarter 20.11
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.15
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations28
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.33
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.13
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.19
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.40
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.23
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.65
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations8
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.00
Maximum0.33
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.00
Mean of quarter 40.17
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.33
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-419221344
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)63
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.46
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.38
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.50
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.50
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.05
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.44
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.36
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.10
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.90
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal10.82
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.03
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.03
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.10
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.20
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.66

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@M2K M5long2Mar 21, 2025Jun 16, 2025$539
@MNQ M5long4Apr 30, 2025Apr 30, 2025$793
@MNQ M5long12Apr 21, 2025Apr 21, 2025$2,038
@MYM M5long10Apr 17, 2025Apr 17, 2025$1,106
@MNQ M5long8Apr 16, 2025Apr 16, 2025$1,940
@MES M5long4Apr 10, 2025Apr 10, 2025$1,415
@MNQ M5long4Apr 10, 2025Apr 10, 2025$1,703
@MES M5long28Mar 21, 2025Apr 9, 2025($11,389)
@MNQ M5long16Apr 4, 2025Apr 9, 2025$14,945
@MNQ H5long4Mar 6, 2025Mar 21, 2025($4,549)
@M2K H5long8Dec 18, 2024Mar 21, 2025($3,596)
@MNQ H5long2Mar 5, 2025Mar 5, 2025$784
@MNQ H5long8Feb 21, 2025Mar 4, 2025($4,300)
@MNQ H5long2Jan 27, 2025Jan 27, 2025$399
@MNQ H5long2Jan 27, 2025Jan 27, 2025$991
@MNQ H5long2Jan 10, 2025Jan 15, 2025$1,229
@MNQ H5long2Dec 27, 2024Jan 6, 2025$1,109
@MNQ H5long4Dec 18, 2024Dec 24, 2024$2,358
@MYM H5long2Dec 18, 2024Dec 24, 2024$78
@MNQ H5long4Dec 18, 2024Dec 18, 2024($1,911)
@MNQ Z4long2Dec 10, 2024Dec 16, 2024$2,104
@MNQ Z4long2Nov 20, 2024Nov 20, 2024$771
@MNQ Z4long4Nov 15, 2024Nov 19, 2024$850
@MNQ Z4long2Oct 23, 2024Oct 24, 2024$1,167
@MNQ Z4long2Oct 1, 2024Oct 3, 2024$1,073
@MNQ U4long4Sep 3, 2024Sep 17, 2024$3,503
@MES U4long5Jul 18, 2024Aug 16, 2024($494)
@ES U4long5Jun 18, 2024Jul 8, 2024$15,960
@MES M4long5Apr 17, 2024Jun 18, 2024$10,469
@MES H4long3Dec 13, 2023Mar 15, 2024$5,561

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.