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Futures · Futures · Started May 2023

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
55.5%
Max Drawdown
6.1%
Trades
159
Win Trades
56.0%
Profit Factor
2
Win Months
12.2%

About this strategy

It's risk trading. MNQ, ENQ

Financials / Indexes

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20231.88.16.42.90.50.00.00.021.2
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began5/2/2023
Suggested Minimum Capital$42,500
Age41 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades159
# Profitable89
% Profitable56.0%
Avg trade duration9.7 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown6.1%
drawdown periodJuly 31, 2023 - Aug 15, 2023
Cumul. Return21.2%
Avg win$251
Avg loss$161

Ratios

W:L ratio1.98
Sharpe Ratio0.72
Sortino Ratio2
Calmar Ratio9.93

Verified

C2Star0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life85.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)17.7%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)55.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)7.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss0.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated99.8%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)449
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)907
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)766

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$161
Avg Win$251
# Winners89
Sum Trade PL (losers)$11,275
Sum Trade PL (winners)$22,316
Num Months Winners5
# Losers70
% Winners56.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table41

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)583.98
Avg Position Time (hrs)9.73
Avg Trade Length0.40
Last Trade Ago1093

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)3.76
Daily leverage (max)18.99

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0
Treynor Index4.08

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-7.94
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.34
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.47
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.03
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.13

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.54
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)4.62
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.69
df4
t2.98
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio8.83
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.28
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation7.65
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0.54
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms0
N of observations5
Mean of predictor0.08
Mean of criterion0.54
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.01
r0.82
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.73
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.49
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error3
t(b)2.52
p(b)0.04
t(a)4.03
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.66
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.88
Treynor index (mean / b)0.74
Jensen alpha (a)0.49
Mean0.53
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)4.68
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.74
df4
t3.02
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio8.92
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.25
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation7.73
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0.53
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms0
N of observations5
Mean of predictor0.07
Mean of criterion0.53
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance0.01
r0.82
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.70
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.48
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error3
t(b)2.53
p(b)0.04
t(a)4.15
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.85
Treynor index (mean / b)0.75
Jensen alpha (a)0.48
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
Mean0.52
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)4.19
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)4.16
df111
t2.74
p0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio7.23
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.11
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation7.21
Sortino ratio12.90
Upside Potential Ratio18.34
Upside part of mean0.74
Downside part of mean-0.22
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms45
N negative terms67
N of observations112
Mean of predictor0.06
Mean of criterion0.52
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.31
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error110
t(b)0.38
p(b)0.48
t(a)2.71
p(a)0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.90
Treynor index (mean / b)13.07
Jensen alpha (a)0.52
Mean0.51
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)4.18
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)4.16
df111
t2.74
p0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio7.22
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.11
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation7.20
Sortino ratio12.64
Upside Potential Ratio18.07
Upside part of mean0.73
Downside part of mean-0.22
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms45
N negative terms67
N of observations112
Mean of predictor0.05
Mean of criterion0.51
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.51
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error110
t(b)0.40
p(b)0.48
t(a)2.71
p(a)0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.88
Treynor index (mean / b)12.39
Jensen alpha (a)0.51
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum1.01
Quartile 11.03
Median1.04
Quartile 31.07
Maximum1.09
Mean of quarter 11.02
Mean of quarter 21.04
Mean of quarter 31.07
Mean of quarter 41.09
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations112
Minimum0.99
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.05
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low6
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high14
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.59
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.28
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations8
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.04
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.03
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-313475744
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)15
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.62
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.74
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal32.60
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.61
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.72
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)18.26
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs26.94
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal52.86

Trading record

Placed 76 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
BD Z3short2Sep 13, 2023Sep 13, 2023$91
BD Z3short3Sep 13, 2023Sep 13, 2023$556
EZ Z3short2Sep 7, 2023Sep 13, 2023$215
BL Z3short1Sep 7, 2023Sep 7, 2023($19)
M6B U3short10Sep 5, 2023Sep 5, 2023$41
MNQ U3long10Sep 5, 2023Sep 5, 2023($414)
MNQ U3long5Sep 5, 2023Sep 5, 2023($235)
M6B U3long3Aug 29, 2023Aug 30, 2023$169
M6B U3short3Aug 24, 2023Aug 29, 2023$2
M6B U3long2.55Aug 23, 2023Aug 24, 2023($152)
BX U3short2.55Aug 24, 2023Aug 24, 2023$2,891
TY U3short1.7Aug 24, 2023Aug 24, 2023($41)
TY U3long1.7Aug 24, 2023Aug 24, 2023($27)
M6B U3short8.5Aug 23, 2023Aug 23, 2023($44)
NQ U3long1.7Aug 23, 2023Aug 23, 2023$437
BP U3short1.7Aug 23, 2023Aug 23, 2023$114
BP U3long1.7Aug 23, 2023Aug 23, 2023($184)
M6B U3long8.5Aug 23, 2023Aug 23, 2023($87)
M6B U3short4.25Aug 22, 2023Aug 23, 2023($80)
MNQ U3long8.5Aug 22, 2023Aug 22, 2023$198
MNQ U3long4.25Aug 22, 2023Aug 22, 2023($134)
M6B U3long1.7Aug 21, 2023Aug 22, 2023($40)
BP U3long1.7Aug 21, 2023Aug 22, 2023$92
MNQ U3long0.85Aug 21, 2023Aug 21, 2023$23
MNQ U3short4.25Aug 21, 2023Aug 21, 2023($15)
MNQ U3long4.25Aug 21, 2023Aug 21, 2023($36)
M6B U3long4.25Aug 21, 2023Aug 21, 2023$5
BP U3short0.85Aug 21, 2023Aug 21, 2023($103)
BP U3long0.85Aug 21, 2023Aug 21, 2023($108)
BP U3short0.85Aug 20, 2023Aug 21, 2023($28)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.