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SILVER ETF TRADER

Equity · Stocks · Started May 2023

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
9.0%
Max Drawdown
37.8%
Trades
25
Win Trades
76.0%
Profit Factor
1.70
Win Months
58.5%

About this strategy

I typically focus on trading SILVER/ GOLD based on technical analysis. However I consider long term GEOPOLITICAL and ECONOMIC trends. IE: As inflation rises the US dollar will lose value making precious metals more valuable.

Trend-following

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20232.81.8-0.111.8-8.14.58.47.030.2
2024-0.1-1.77.50.0-0.20.0-0.20.92.47.9-20.9-20.3-26.1
202524.5-0.11.53.24.30.3-1.81.38.40.6-0.61.048.4
2026-0.2-2.0-4.22.31.40.6-7.84.00.1-6.1

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began5/2/2023
Suggested Minimum Capital$42,000
Age41 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades25
# Profitable19
% Profitable76.0%
Avg trade duration32.8 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown37.8%
drawdown periodOct 30, 2024 - Dec 19, 2024
Annual Return (Compounded)9.0%
Avg win$1,924
Avg loss$3,501

Ratios

W:L ratio1.74
Sharpe Ratio0.37
Sortino Ratio0.52
Calmar Ratio0.68

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.15
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life86.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-51.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)9.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)9.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity14.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.6%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss61.0%
Chance of 20% account loss19.0%
Chance of 30% account loss8.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.5%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$3,501
Avg Win$1,924
# Winners19
Sum Trade PL (losers)$21,008
Sum Trade PL (winners)$36,547
Num Months Winners24
# Losers6
% Winners76.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table41

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)47227.65
Avg Position Time (hrs)787.13
Avg Trade Length32.80
Last Trade Ago556

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.57
Daily leverage (max)4.46

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.20
Treynor Index0.12

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.05
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.08
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.07
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.04
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades3.91
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.62
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats8.82
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats26.33
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.01
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.04
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.26

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.32
SD0.36
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.88
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.84
df15
t1.02
p0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.59
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.89
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.56
Sortino ratio1.49
Upside Potential Ratio2.96
Upside part of mean0.63
Downside part of mean-0.31
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms11
N negative terms5
N of observations16
Mean of predictor0.39
Mean of criterion0.32
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.36
Covariance0.04
r0.40
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.50
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.12
DF error14
t(b)1.61
p(b)0.30
t(a)0.38
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.81
Treynor index (mean / b)0.64
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
Mean0.25
SD0.36
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.70
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.67
df15
t0.81
p0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.41
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.05
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.38
Sortino ratio1.09
Upside Potential Ratio2.54
Upside part of mean0.59
Downside part of mean-0.34
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.23
N nonnegative terms11
N negative terms5
N of observations16
Mean of predictor0.35
Mean of criterion0.25
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.36
Covariance0.03
r0.36
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.49
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.12
DF error14
t(b)1.43
p(b)0.32
t(a)0.24
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.78
Treynor index (mean / b)0.51
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
VaR(95%)0.14
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.18
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
Mean0.24
SD0.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.77
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.77
df363
t0.90
p0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.90
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.43
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.90
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.43
Sortino ratio1.10
Upside Potential Ratio7.35
Upside part of mean1.61
Downside part of mean-1.37
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms144
N negative terms220
N of observations364
Mean of predictor0.45
Mean of criterion0.24
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.31
Covariance0.01
r0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.22
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.14
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error362
t(b)2.97
p(b)0.00
t(a)0.53
p(a)0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.66
Treynor index (mean / b)1.08
Jensen alpha (a)0.14
Mean0.19
SD0.32
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.61
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.61
df363
t0.72
p0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.27
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.06
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.27
Sortino ratio0.85
Upside Potential Ratio7.03
Upside part of mean1.58
Downside part of mean-1.39
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.23
N nonnegative terms144
N negative terms220
N of observations364
Mean of predictor0.42
Mean of criterion0.19
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.32
Covariance0.01
r0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.22
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.10
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error362
t(b)2.90
p(b)0.00
t(a)0.37
p(a)0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.62
Treynor index (mean / b)0.87
Jensen alpha (a)0.10
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean-0.12
SD0.38
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.32
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.32
df130
t-0.23
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.45
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.09
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.45
Sortino ratio-0.42
Upside Potential Ratio5.98
Upside part of mean1.75
Downside part of mean-1.87
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.29
N nonnegative terms57
N negative terms74
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.58
Mean of criterion-0.12
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.38
Covariance0.02
r0.20
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.26
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.27
Mean Square Error0.14
DF error129
t(b)2.28
p(b)0.38
t(a)-0.51
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.79
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.48
Jensen alpha (a)-0.27
Mean-0.20
SD0.39
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.51
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.50
df130
t-0.36
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.27
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.28
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.27
Sortino ratio-0.65
Upside Potential Ratio5.68
Upside part of mean1.72
Downside part of mean-1.91
Upside SD0.24
Downside SD0.30
N nonnegative terms57
N negative terms74
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.54
Mean of criterion-0.20
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.39
Covariance0.02
r0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.25
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.33
Mean Square Error0.15
DF error129
t(b)2.21
p(b)0.38
t(a)-0.61
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.74
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.78
Jensen alpha (a)-0.33
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations16
Minimum0.81
Quartile 10.99
Median1.03
Quartile 31.07
Maximum1.22
Mean of quarter 10.90
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.05
Mean of quarter 41.15
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.83
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.22
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.24
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.11
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.11
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.21
Number of observations364
Minimum0.90
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.09
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low36
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high43
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.18
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.06
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum0.90
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.09
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low11
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high11
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.52
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.06
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.36
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations4
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.02
Median0.08
Quartile 30.16
Maximum0.22
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.14
Mean of quarter 40.22
Inter Quartile Range0.14
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations17
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.04
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.36
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.06
Mean of quarter 40.18
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.28
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.55
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.20
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.48
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.54
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.24
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1
Minimum0.36
Quartile 10.36
Median0.36
Quartile 30.36
Maximum0.36
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-382658144
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)50
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.34
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.33
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.45
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.45
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.86
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.26
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.25
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.68
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.35
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal6.35
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.16
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.16
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.43
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-3.18

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
AGQ long2000Dec 16, 2024Jan 10, 2025$3,288
AMLI long15000Nov 29, 2024Dec 12, 2024($3,724)
AGQ long500Dec 4, 2024Dec 4, 2024$245
AMLI long10000Nov 18, 2024Nov 21, 2024$344
UCO long1000Nov 12, 2024Nov 12, 2024($635)
AGQ long2000Nov 1, 2024Nov 12, 2024($13,045)
AMLI long1000Oct 11, 2024Nov 12, 2024($210)
UCO long4000Oct 29, 2024Oct 30, 2024$2,835
UCO long1000Oct 25, 2024Oct 25, 2024$535
UCO long800Oct 21, 2024Oct 22, 2024$451
UCO long1000Oct 2, 2024Oct 4, 2024$1,085
AGQ long1000Sep 5, 2024Sep 12, 2024$1,475
AGQ long1500Aug 20, 2024Aug 20, 2024($1,265)
AGQ long1000Aug 19, 2024Aug 19, 2024$735
AGQ long1000Aug 15, 2024Aug 15, 2024$195
AGQ long1000Aug 7, 2024Aug 8, 2024$885
AGQ long2100Jan 10, 2024Mar 5, 2024$3,212
AGQ long1260Dec 11, 2023Dec 14, 2023$3,605
AGQ long1680Sep 8, 2023Nov 16, 2023$2,165
AGQ long1680Aug 9, 2023Aug 23, 2023$5,189
AGQ long840Jun 16, 2023Jun 20, 2023($2,161)
AGQ long1890May 19, 2023Jun 8, 2023$2,687
CCL long4200May 4, 2023May 5, 2023$1,446
SMR long420May 2, 2023May 3, 2023$40

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.