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Temperance

Futures · Futures · Started Mar 2023

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
42.5%
Max Drawdown
30.2%
Trades
28
Win Trades
82.1%
Profit Factor
2.50
Win Months
32.1%

About this strategy

A patient, opportunistic system. May go through periods of time with little activity when the market is less volatile, and vice versa when the market is more volatile. Combination of trend following and reversion to mean trades. 100% rules-based system. Analysis done primarily on Daily time frame. Before putting this system on C2, was using this trading style for years with success. When trading MES (Micro E-Mini), it is a max of 12 contracts being open at once but that should be relatively rare (when market is at relatively extreme oversold readings). At 12 MES contracts, it is still only the equivalent of 1.2 times a "normal size" E-Mini S&P 500 contract. Similar with Gold, using the MGC. ETFs such as SSO, SPY, IAU, GLD, etc. may also be used to capture trend-following signals (longer-term holds). Once you subscribe to the system, the subscription cost will not increase for the duration of your subscription.

Short Term

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20231.60.4-0.10.70.25.1-2.00.44.0-23.1-14.9
20240.0-0.4-28.80.0-0.1-0.1-0.10.0
2025-0.10.0-0.0-0.2-0.00.0-0.00.00.0
20260.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began3/21/2023
Suggested Minimum Capital$40,000
Age43 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades28
# Profitable23
% Profitable82.1%
Avg trade duration116.1 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown30.2%
drawdown periodJan 05, 2024 - June 14, 2026
Annual Return (Compounded)42.5%
Avg win$7,229
Avg loss$13,506

Ratios

W:L ratio2.47
Sharpe Ratio0.41
Sortino Ratio6.16
Calmar Ratio18.75

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.07
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life90.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)157.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)42.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.4%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)42.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity43.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.9%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.1%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss59.5%
Chance of 20% account loss24.5%
Chance of 30% account loss8.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$13,506
Avg Win$7,229
# Winners23
Sum Trade PL (losers)$67,530
Sum Trade PL (winners)$166,259
Num Months Winners12
# Losers5
% Winners82.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct289

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table40

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)167129.06
Avg Position Time (hrs)2785.48
Avg Trade Length116.10
Last Trade Ago1016

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)2.99
Daily leverage (max)11.48

Regression

Alpha0.45
Beta-1.67
Treynor Index-0.22

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.05
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.07
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-3.93
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.78
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.95
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.16
Hold-and-Hope Ratio2.52

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean4.23
SD3.60
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.18
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.05
df7
t0.96
p0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.61
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.42
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.51
Sortino ratio18.05
Upside Potential Ratio19.65
Upside part of mean4.61
Downside part of mean-0.38
Upside SD3.57
Downside SD0.23
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms3
N of observations8
Mean of predictor0.91
Mean of criterion4.23
SD of predictor0.53
SD of criterion3.60
Covariance1.81
r0.95
b (slope, estimate of beta)6.40
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.61
Mean Square Error1.57
DF error6
t(b)7.20
p(b)0.00
t(a)-0.93
p(a)0.81
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta4.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta8.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-5.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.64
Treynor index (mean / b)0.66
Jensen alpha (a)-1.61
Mean1.87
SD1.72
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.97
df7
t0.89
p0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.52
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.49
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.42
Sortino ratio7.25
Upside Potential Ratio8.83
Upside part of mean2.28
Downside part of mean-0.41
Upside SD1.67
Downside SD0.26
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms3
N of observations8
Mean of predictor0.78
Mean of criterion1.87
SD of predictor0.45
SD of criterion1.72
Covariance0.70
r0.92
b (slope, estimate of beta)3.53
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.90
Mean Square Error0.53
DF error6
t(b)5.71
p(b)0.00
t(a)-0.89
p(a)0.80
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta5.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.59
Treynor index (mean / b)0.53
Jensen alpha (a)-0.90
VaR(95%)0.48
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.57
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
Mean6.45
SD5.81
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.11
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.10
df174
t0.91
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.51
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.30
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.51
Sortino ratio16.17
Upside Potential Ratio20.16
Upside part of mean8.04
Downside part of mean-1.59
Upside SD5.80
Downside SD0.40
N nonnegative terms61
N negative terms114
N of observations175
Mean of predictor0.81
Mean of criterion6.45
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion5.81
Covariance-0.16
r-0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)-3.20
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)9.04
Mean Square Error33.50
DF error173
t(b)-1.62
p(b)0.58
t(a)1.24
p(a)0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-7.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-5.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha23.37
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.02
Jensen alpha (a)9.04
Mean1.86
SD2.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.85
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.85
df174
t0.69
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.25
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.55
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.25
Sortino ratio4.07
Upside Potential Ratio7.74
Upside part of mean3.55
Downside part of mean-1.69
Upside SD2.14
Downside SD0.46
N nonnegative terms61
N negative terms114
N of observations175
Mean of predictor0.78
Mean of criterion1.86
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion2.20
Covariance-0.08
r-0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.67
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)3.17
Mean Square Error4.71
DF error173
t(b)-2.21
p(b)0.60
t(a)1.17
p(a)0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha8.55
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.12
Jensen alpha (a)3.17
VaR(95%)0.19
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.24
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean8.53
SD6.72
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.27
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.26
df130
t0.90
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.04
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.51
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.04
Sortino ratio18.49
Upside Potential Ratio23.06
Upside part of mean10.63
Downside part of mean-2.10
Upside SD6.70
Downside SD0.46
N nonnegative terms47
N negative terms84
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.87
Mean of criterion8.53
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion6.72
Covariance-0.21
r-0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)-3.66
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)11.71
Mean Square Error44.75
DF error129
t(b)-1.50
p(b)0.58
t(a)1.21
p(a)0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-8.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-7.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha30.89
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.33
Jensen alpha (a)11.71
Mean2.40
SD2.54
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.95
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.94
df130
t0.67
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.83
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.72
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.83
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.72
Sortino ratio4.53
Upside Potential Ratio8.74
Upside part of mean4.63
Downside part of mean-2.23
Upside SD2.48
Downside SD0.53
N nonnegative terms47
N negative terms84
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.84
Mean of criterion2.40
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion2.54
Covariance-0.11
r-0.18
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.91
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)4.01
Mean Square Error6.29
DF error129
t(b)-2.05
p(b)0.61
t(a)1.10
p(a)0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.75
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha11.19
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.26
Jensen alpha (a)4.01
VaR(95%)0.22
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.27
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations8
Minimum0.82
Quartile 10.97
Median1.02
Quartile 31.06
Maximum3.92
Mean of quarter 10.89
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.05
Mean of quarter 42.49
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.82
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high3.92
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations175
Minimum0.71
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum5.74
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.12
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low26
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high23
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high1.23
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.55
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.32
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum0.71
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum5.74
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.16
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low12
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high10
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.51
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.53
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.06
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.37
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.18
Quartile 10.18
Median0.18
Quartile 30.18
Maximum0.18
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations12
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.10
Maximum0.30
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.23
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.28
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-68.21
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.23
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.85
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.42
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.43
Number of observations9
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.02
Quartile 30.13
Maximum0.30
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.11
Mean of quarter 40.28
Inter Quartile Range0.13
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-68.21
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.23
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.85
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.43
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.43
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-403230624
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)891
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)3.81
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)5.66
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)30.89
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal9.88
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)3.80
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)5.64
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)18.75
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs24.40
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal23.71
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)4.74
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)10.37
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)34.51
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs36.78
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal38.63

Trading record

Placed 1 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
LABU long1460Nov 17, 2023Dec 1, 2023$433
QMGC Z3long2Nov 14, 2023Dec 1, 2023$1,468
TMF long1086Nov 13, 2023Nov 14, 2023$267
SSO long180Oct 16, 2023Nov 7, 2023($453)
MES Z3long8Oct 17, 2023Nov 2, 2023$154
MNQ Z3long1Oct 30, 2023Nov 1, 2023$328
MNQ Z3long2Oct 27, 2023Oct 30, 2023$556
MES H4long4Oct 26, 2023Oct 26, 2023$230
MES H4long4Oct 26, 2023Oct 26, 2023$400
MES H4long4Oct 26, 2023Oct 26, 2023($220)
MES Z3long2Oct 8, 2023Oct 10, 2023$936
MES Z3long12Sep 18, 2023Oct 6, 2023$1,032
US Z3short2Oct 6, 2023Oct 6, 2023($79)
US Z3long1Sep 13, 2023Sep 13, 2023$273
MES U3long1Aug 22, 2023Aug 23, 2023$197
MES U3long6Aug 15, 2023Aug 22, 2023$629
MES U3long2Aug 10, 2023Aug 14, 2023$181
MES U3long2Aug 8, 2023Aug 10, 2023$474
MES U3long5Aug 2, 2023Aug 7, 2023$678
MYM U3short1Jul 27, 2023Jul 27, 2023$136
MES U3long1Jun 26, 2023Jun 27, 2023$187
MNQ U3short1Jun 19, 2023Jun 20, 2023$145
MES M3short1Apr 19, 2023Apr 21, 2023$80
MES M3long1Apr 2, 2023Apr 13, 2023$158
ES M3short1Mar 21, 2023Mar 22, 2023$705

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.