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Easy no

Futures · Futures · Started Feb 2023

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
10.4%
Max Drawdown
32.5%
Trades
311
Win Trades
51.1%
Profit Factor
1.40
Win Months
23.3%

About this strategy

This straegy will only trade MES, ES for now.

Momentum

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20232.511.5-0.46.62.96.02.30.71.80.6-31.7-4.6
202448.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.048.9
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/11/2023
Suggested Minimum Capital$37,840
Age43 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades311
# Profitable159
% Profitable51.1%
Avg trade duration10.6 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown32.5%
drawdown periodDec 20, 2023 - Dec 29, 2023
Annual Return (Compounded)10.4%
Avg win$586
Avg loss$434

Ratios

W:L ratio1.41
Sharpe Ratio0.37
Sortino Ratio0.78
Calmar Ratio3.03

Verified

C2Star0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life87.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-45.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)10.4%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)16.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss26.5%
Chance of 20% account loss4.0%
Chance of 30% account loss1.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated99.7%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$434
Avg Win$586
# Winners159
Sum Trade PL (losers)$65,967
Sum Trade PL (winners)$93,165
Num Months Winners10
# Losers152
% Winners51.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table43

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)637.35
Avg Position Time (hrs)10.62
Avg Trade Length0.40
Last Trade Ago970

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)5.42
Daily leverage (max)100.31

Regression

Alpha0.03
Beta-0.02
Treynor Index-1.45

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-6.03
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)2.64
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats40.85
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats97.54
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.92
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.22
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.17

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.46
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.51
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.36
df13
t2.71
p0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.53
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.33
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.39
Sortino ratio42.99
Upside Potential Ratio44.50
Upside part of mean0.48
Downside part of mean-0.02
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms5
N of observations14
Mean of predictor0.55
Mean of criterion0.46
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance-0.03
r-0.51
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.28
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.61
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error12
t(b)-2.03
p(b)0.75
t(a)3.60
p(a)0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.98
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.67
Jensen alpha (a)0.61
Mean0.44
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.59
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.43
df13
t2.79
p0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.61
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.39
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.47
Sortino ratio40.72
Upside Potential Ratio42.22
Upside part of mean0.45
Downside part of mean-0.02
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms5
N of observations14
Mean of predictor0.49
Mean of criterion0.44
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance-0.03
r-0.54
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.31
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.59
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error12
t(b)-2.24
p(b)0.77
t(a)3.85
p(a)0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.92
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.42
Jensen alpha (a)0.59
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.47
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.62
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.62
df309
t1.77
p0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.43
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.19
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.43
Sortino ratio3.18
Upside Potential Ratio6.73
Upside part of mean0.99
Downside part of mean-0.52
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms101
N negative terms209
N of observations310
Mean of predictor0.53
Mean of criterion0.47
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.48
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error308
t(b)-0.24
p(b)0.59
t(a)1.78
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.01
Treynor index (mean / b)-29.47
Jensen alpha (a)0.48
Mean0.43
SD0.28
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.54
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.53
df309
t1.67
p0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.34
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.27
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.34
Sortino ratio2.81
Upside Potential Ratio6.31
Upside part of mean0.97
Downside part of mean-0.54
Upside SD0.24
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms101
N negative terms209
N of observations310
Mean of predictor0.50
Mean of criterion0.43
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.28
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.44
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error308
t(b)-0.21
p(b)0.58
t(a)1.68
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.95
Treynor index (mean / b)-30.32
Jensen alpha (a)0.44
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.23
SD0.39
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.58
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.57
df130
t0.41
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.35
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.20
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.35
Sortino ratio1.05
Upside Potential Ratio4.61
Upside part of mean0.99
Downside part of mean-0.77
Upside SD0.33
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms25
N negative terms106
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.26
Mean of criterion0.23
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.39
Covariance-0.00
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.28
Mean Square Error0.15
DF error129
t(b)-0.42
p(b)0.52
t(a)0.49
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.41
Treynor index (mean / b)-5.29
Jensen alpha (a)0.28
Mean0.15
SD0.38
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.41
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.41
df130
t0.29
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.18
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.37
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.18
Sortino ratio0.69
Upside Potential Ratio4.23
Upside part of mean0.95
Downside part of mean-0.79
Upside SD0.30
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms25
N negative terms106
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.20
Mean of criterion0.15
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.38
Covariance-0.00
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.20
Mean Square Error0.14
DF error129
t(b)-0.39
p(b)0.52
t(a)0.37
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.24
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.88
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.28
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.94
Jensen alpha (a)0.20
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations14
Minimum0.99
Quartile 11.00
Median1.03
Quartile 31.05
Maximum1.19
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.02
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 41.10
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.19
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations310
Minimum0.91
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.20
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low44
Percentage of outliers low0.14
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high58
Percentage of outliers high0.19
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.18
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.89
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations131
Minimum0.91
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.20
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low11
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high25
Percentage of outliers high0.19
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.52
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.16
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.01
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations24
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.19
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.07
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high0.16
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.80
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.43
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.49
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations5
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.13
Maximum0.19
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.13
Mean of quarter 40.19
Inter Quartile Range0.12
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-481856032
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)9
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.62
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.59
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)69.98
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal9.53
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.61
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.58
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)3.03
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs7.76
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal17.38
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.19
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.20
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.04
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.04
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.31

Trading record

Placed 511 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SQQQ long1000Jan 2, 2024Jan 4, 2024$383
NQ H4short11Jan 2, 2024Jan 2, 2024$8,057
NQ H4long10Jan 2, 2024Jan 2, 2024($2,540)
NQ H4long4Jan 2, 2024Jan 2, 2024($4,192)
RTY H4long6Jan 2, 2024Jan 2, 2024$262
RTY H4long20Jan 2, 2024Jan 2, 2024$4,760
RTY H4short20Jan 2, 2024Jan 2, 2024$4,650
ES H4long20Jan 2, 2024Jan 2, 2024($5,160)
RTY H4short4Jan 2, 2024Jan 2, 2024($182)
RTY H4short20Jan 2, 2024Jan 2, 2024$720
ES H4long20Jan 2, 2024Jan 2, 2024$2,953
RTY H4short10Jan 2, 2024Jan 2, 2024$905
ES H4short17Dec 29, 2023Dec 29, 2023$1,014
RTY H4short20Dec 29, 2023Dec 29, 2023$2,070
RTY H4long8Dec 28, 2023Dec 29, 2023($3,969)
RTY H4long3Dec 28, 2023Dec 28, 2023$41
RTY H4short8Dec 28, 2023Dec 28, 2023($3,339)
ES H4long6Dec 22, 2023Dec 26, 2023($961)
ES H4long4Dec 22, 2023Dec 22, 2023$3,318
ES H4long2Dec 22, 2023Dec 22, 2023($122)
ES H4short8Dec 21, 2023Dec 21, 2023($1,420)
ES H4long6Dec 21, 2023Dec 21, 2023($6,011)
QCL G4long1Dec 21, 2023Dec 21, 2023($968)
QCL G4long1Dec 19, 2023Dec 19, 2023$1,012
ES H4long1Dec 13, 2023Dec 13, 2023$80
ES H4long2Dec 12, 2023Dec 12, 2023$284
ES H4long8Dec 12, 2023Dec 12, 2023$390
ES Z3long1Dec 12, 2023Dec 12, 2023($8)
ES Z3short4Dec 12, 2023Dec 12, 2023$297
ES H4long1Dec 12, 2023Dec 12, 2023($96)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.