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TQQQ IRA Portfolio

Equity · Stocks · Started Dec 2022

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
13.2%
Max Drawdown
13.5%
Trades
373
Win Trades
26.8%
Profit Factor
1.50
Win Months
50.0%
Subscribe $20/mo

About this strategy

Trades TQQQ with several sub-systems. Exposure time is about 10-15% of the overall cash market hours which means the system spends most of the time in cash. An excellent system that is built with risk management at its core and where leverage is capped by the very definition of TQQQ giving you peace of mind.

Trend-following

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2022-0.2-0.2
20235.0-4.610.61.29.41.7-3.72.8-4.9-3.67.1-0.720.3
20245.02.1-2.3-0.52.06.53.90.3-1.0-2.1-0.26.221.2
2025-0.3-2.9-4.1-2.31.82.5-0.02.20.74.3-1.8-3.2-3.4
2026-2.7-0.4-3.012.09.40.2-8.38.8-1.813.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/27/2022
Suggested Minimum Capital$35,000
Age45 months
C2 Rank329
What it tradesStocks
# Trades373
# Profitable100
% Profitable26.8%
Avg trade duration2.3 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown13.5%
drawdown periodJan 22, 2025 - April 24, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)13.2%
Avg win$1,169
Avg loss$285

Ratios

W:L ratio1.51
Sharpe Ratio0.80
Sortino Ratio1.71
Calmar Ratio1.55

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.36
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life99.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-40.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)13.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)17.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity6.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss5.5%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated99.7%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)776
C2 Score329
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)303

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$285
Avg Win$1,169
# Winners100
Sum Trade PL (losers)$77,751
Sum Trade PL (winners)$116,928
Num Months Winners23
# Losers273
% Winners26.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct532

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table46

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)3325.37
Avg Position Time (hrs)55.42
Avg Trade Length2.30
Last Trade Ago0

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.24
Daily leverage (max)3.60

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta0.29
Treynor Index0.11

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades2.56
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.52
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats43.49
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.13
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-0.91
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.39

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.15
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.94
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.92
df43
t1.80
p0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.98
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.12
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.96
Sortino ratio2.42
Upside Potential Ratio4.47
Upside part of mean0.27
Downside part of mean-0.12
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms23
N negative terms21
N of observations44
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.15
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance0.01
r0.48
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.48
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error42
t(b)3.53
p(b)0.00
t(a)0.82
p(a)0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.75
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.21
Treynor index (mean / b)0.30
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
Mean0.13
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.90
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.88
df43
t1.72
p0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.94
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.93
Sortino ratio2.19
Upside Potential Ratio4.23
Upside part of mean0.26
Downside part of mean-0.12
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms23
N negative terms21
N of observations44
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance0.01
r0.49
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.47
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error42
t(b)3.63
p(b)0.00
t(a)0.81
p(a)0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.73
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.20
Treynor index (mean / b)0.28
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean0.14
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.25
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.25
df961
t2.40
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.28
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.23
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.28
Sortino ratio2.78
Upside Potential Ratio12.57
Upside part of mean0.62
Downside part of mean-0.49
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms355
N negative terms607
N of observations962
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.14
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance0.01
r0.37
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.27
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.09
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error960
t(b)12.30
p(b)0
t(a)1.70
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.20
Treynor index (mean / b)0.50
Jensen alpha (a)0.09
Mean0.13
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.21
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.21
df961
t2.32
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.23
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.18
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.23
Sortino ratio2.65
Upside Potential Ratio12.43
Upside part of mean0.62
Downside part of mean-0.49
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms355
N negative terms607
N of observations962
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance0.01
r0.37
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.27
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.09
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error960
t(b)12.31
p(b)0
t(a)1.67
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.19
Treynor index (mean / b)0.48
Jensen alpha (a)0.09
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.31
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.08
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.07
df130
t1.47
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.86
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.72
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.85
Sortino ratio6.01
Upside Potential Ratio15.61
Upside part of mean0.82
Downside part of mean-0.50
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms50
N negative terms81
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.26
Mean of criterion0.31
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance0.01
r0.40
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.44
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.20
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error129
t(b)4.99
p(b)0.25
t(a)1.01
p(a)0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.62
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.59
Treynor index (mean / b)0.71
Jensen alpha (a)0.20
Mean0.30
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.05
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.03
df130
t1.45
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.82
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.75
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.82
Sortino ratio5.78
Upside Potential Ratio15.36
Upside part of mean0.81
Downside part of mean-0.50
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms50
N negative terms81
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion0.30
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance0.01
r0.40
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.44
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.19
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error129
t(b)5.02
p(b)0.25
t(a)1.00
p(a)0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.27
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.58
Treynor index (mean / b)0.69
Jensen alpha (a)0.19
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations44
Minimum0.95
Quartile 10.98
Median1.00
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.19
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.07
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.15
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.58
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.57
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations962
Minimum0.99
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low7
Percentage of outliers low0.01
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high74
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.04
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.02
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.99
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high14
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.28
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.07
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations9
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.02
Median0.04
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.08
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.08
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-48.95
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.89
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.10
Number of observations37
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.11
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.07
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high0.11
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.54
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.08
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.09
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08
Number of observations8
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.08
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.06
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-388854976
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)92
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.22
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.17
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.14
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.21
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.36
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.22
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.17
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.55
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.47
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal13.03
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.36
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.39
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)5.19
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs6.65
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal22.34

Trading record

Placed 2063 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
TQQQ long1430Sep 11, 2026Sep 14, 2026($870)
TQQQ long2171Sep 3, 2026Sep 9, 2026$132
TQQQ long2448Aug 25, 2026Sep 1, 2026($799)
TQQQ long132Aug 25, 2026Aug 25, 2026($54)
TQQQ long660Aug 25, 2026Aug 25, 2026($326)
TQQQ long650Aug 21, 2026Aug 24, 2026($434)
TQQQ long126Aug 19, 2026Aug 19, 2026($81)
TQQQ long2885Aug 7, 2026Aug 18, 2026($1,188)
TQQQ long3836Jul 30, 2026Aug 7, 2026$8,423
TQQQ long137Jul 29, 2026Jul 29, 2026($121)
TQQQ long100Jul 28, 2026Jul 28, 2026($24)
TQQQ long125Jul 28, 2026Jul 28, 2026($72)
TQQQ long119Jul 27, 2026Jul 27, 2026($77)
TQQQ long1325Jul 21, 2026Jul 23, 2026($1,069)
TQQQ long224Jul 20, 2026Jul 20, 2026($88)
TQQQ long222Jul 20, 2026Jul 20, 2026($119)
TQQQ long208Jul 15, 2026Jul 16, 2026($454)
TQQQ long515Jul 14, 2026Jul 15, 2026($586)
TQQQ long104Jul 14, 2026Jul 14, 2026($60)
TQQQ long517Jul 14, 2026Jul 14, 2026($374)
TQQQ long709Jul 9, 2026Jul 13, 2026($685)
TQQQ long913Jul 6, 2026Jul 7, 2026($1,056)
TQQQ long1596Jun 29, 2026Jul 2, 2026$862
TQQQ long104Jun 29, 2026Jun 29, 2026($40)
TQQQ long208Jun 29, 2026Jun 29, 2026($268)
TQQQ long400Jun 25, 2026Jun 25, 2026($691)
TQQQ long754Jun 18, 2026Jun 23, 2026($100)
TQQQ long96Jun 18, 2026Jun 18, 2026($2)
TQQQ long1949Jun 11, 2026Jun 16, 2026$569
TQQQ long108Jun 11, 2026Jun 11, 2026($92)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.