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Absolute Safe Returns

Equity · Stocks, Futures · Started Dec 2022

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
6.1%
Max Drawdown
9.0%
Trades
246
Win Trades
48.8%
Profit Factor
1.40
Win Months
32.6%

Trend-following Event-driven

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20221.01.0
20233.10.52.50.20.44.50.1-0.9-0.6-0.12.43.316.2
20242.7-1.0-0.82.00.00.2-0.31.51.1-0.4-0.2-0.83.9
2025-7.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-7.5
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/21/2022
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age46 months
What it tradesStocks, Futures
# Trades246
# Profitable120
% Profitable48.8%
Avg trade duration1.4 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown9.0%
drawdown periodNov 01, 2024 - Jan 02, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)6.1%
Avg win$460
Avg loss$307

Ratios

W:L ratio1.45
Sharpe Ratio0.27
Sortino Ratio0.35
Calmar Ratio0.97

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.23
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life99.1%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-40.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)6.1%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)4.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity9.8%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.5%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.6%
Percent Trades Options0.1%
Short Options - Percent Covered0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.3%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss0.5%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.2%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)713
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)850
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)693

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$307
Avg Win$460
# Winners120
Sum Trade PL (losers)$38,725
Sum Trade PL (winners)$55,168
Num Months Winners16
# Losers126
% Winners48.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct874

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table46

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)2046.38
Avg Position Time (hrs)34.11
Avg Trade Length1.40
Last Trade Ago627

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.93
Daily leverage (max)12.03

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.07
Treynor Index0.05

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades16.27
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.18
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.44
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.39
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.06

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.10
SD0.05
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.86
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.80
df22
t2.58
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.36
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.29
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.31
Sortino ratio5.71
Upside Potential Ratio7.62
Upside part of mean0.13
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.02
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms9
N of observations23
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.10
SD of criterion0.05
Covariance0.00
r0.42
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.21
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error21
t(b)2.09
p(b)0.24
t(a)1.26
p(a)0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Treynor index (mean / b)0.46
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
Mean0.10
SD0.05
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.85
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.78
df22
t2.56
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.35
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.27
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.29
Sortino ratio5.58
Upside Potential Ratio7.50
Upside part of mean0.13
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.02
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms9
N of observations23
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.10
SD of criterion0.05
Covariance0.00
r0.41
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.21
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error21
t(b)2.09
p(b)0.24
t(a)1.27
p(a)0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Treynor index (mean / b)0.45
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.06
SD0.06
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.94
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.94
df513
t1.32
p0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.34
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.46
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.34
Sortino ratio1.24
Upside Potential Ratio5.73
Upside part of mean0.26
Downside part of mean-0.20
Upside SD0.04
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms191
N negative terms323
N of observations514
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.06
Covariance0.00
r0.32
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error512
t(b)7.72
p(b)0
t(a)0.67
p(a)0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.10
Treynor index (mean / b)0.38
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
Mean0.05
SD0.06
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.90
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.90
df513
t1.27
p0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.30
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.50
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.30
Sortino ratio1.18
Upside Potential Ratio5.63
Upside part of mean0.25
Downside part of mean-0.20
Upside SD0.04
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms191
N negative terms323
N of observations514
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.06
Covariance0.00
r0.32
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error512
t(b)7.61
p(b)0
t(a)0.65
p(a)0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.11
Treynor index (mean / b)0.37
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean-0.14
SD0.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.82
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.81
df130
t-1.29
p0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.96
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.59
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.97
Sortino ratio-1.88
Upside Potential Ratio1.37
Upside part of mean0.10
Downside part of mean-0.25
Upside SD0.02
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms30
N negative terms101
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion-0.14
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.08
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.14
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)-0.13
p(b)0.51
t(a)-1.27
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.08
Treynor index (mean / b)23.58
Jensen alpha (a)-0.14
Mean-0.15
SD0.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.83
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.82
df130
t-1.29
p0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.96
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.60
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.96
Sortino ratio-1.89
Upside Potential Ratio1.34
Upside part of mean0.10
Downside part of mean-0.25
Upside SD0.02
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms30
N negative terms101
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion-0.15
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.08
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.15
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)-0.14
p(b)0.51
t(a)-1.28
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.10
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.08
Treynor index (mean / b)21.40
Jensen alpha (a)-0.15
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations23
Minimum0.99
Quartile 11.00
Median1.01
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-5.92
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.17
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations514
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.02
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low46
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high61
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.33
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.28
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.00
Number of observations131
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.01
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low27
Percentage of outliers low0.21
Mean of outliers low1.00
Number of outliers high26
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.05
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.93
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.02
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations31
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.08
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high0.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.62
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.07
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.99
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)4.07
Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.08
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.00
Mean of quarter 40.04
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-388604000
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)62
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.13
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)7.90
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs7.90
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal5.82
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.09
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.08
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.04
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.64
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal11.61
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.12
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.11
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.39
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-2.59
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-10.45

Trading record

Placed 310 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
CI long20Dec 19, 2024Jan 5, 2025$168
@ES H5long2Jan 2, 2025Jan 2, 2025($9,266)
SPY long100Dec 31, 2024Dec 31, 2024$82
SPY long100Dec 31, 2024Dec 31, 2024($126)
SPY long100Dec 31, 2024Dec 31, 2024($93)
SPY long100Dec 27, 2024Dec 31, 2024($638)
@MES H5long5Dec 31, 2024Dec 31, 2024($131)
@MES H5long5Dec 31, 2024Dec 31, 2024($119)
@MES H5long5Dec 31, 2024Dec 31, 2024($44)
@MES H5long5Dec 30, 2024Dec 31, 2024$625
@MES H5long3Dec 27, 2024Dec 27, 2024($263)
@MES H5long3Dec 27, 2024Dec 27, 2024($154)
SPY long100Dec 23, 2024Dec 26, 2024$833
@MES H5long5Dec 26, 2024Dec 26, 2024($437)
@MES H5long5Dec 23, 2024Dec 23, 2024$719
SPY long100Dec 23, 2024Dec 23, 2024($25)
@MES H5long5Dec 23, 2024Dec 23, 2024($612)
SPY long100Dec 20, 2024Dec 20, 2024($21)
@MES H5long3Dec 19, 2024Dec 19, 2024($132)
@MES H5long2Dec 19, 2024Dec 19, 2024($85)
@MES H5long3Dec 19, 2024Dec 19, 2024($192)
@MES H5long2Dec 18, 2024Dec 19, 2024$447
@MES H5long3Dec 18, 2024Dec 18, 2024$442
@ES H5long3Dec 18, 2024Dec 18, 2024$89
@MES H5long3Dec 18, 2024Dec 18, 2024($83)
@MES H5long3Dec 18, 2024Dec 18, 2024($192)
@MES H5long3Dec 18, 2024Dec 18, 2024$15
@MES H5long3Dec 18, 2024Dec 18, 2024($402)
@MES Z4short5Dec 12, 2024Dec 12, 2024($31)
@ES Z4short1Dec 12, 2024Dec 12, 2024($33)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.