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FX EUR USD

Futures · Futures · Started Dec 2022

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
72.0%
Max Drawdown
9.0%
Trades
356
Win Trades
53.7%
Profit Factor
1.80
Win Months
20.0%

About this strategy

This strategy has been closed at Sep.15th, 2023

Macro / Fundamental

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20226.46.4
202316.46.28.50.6-7.818.51.12.60.50.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.053.6
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/9/2022
Suggested Minimum Capital$34,178
Age46 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades356
# Profitable191
% Profitable53.7%
Avg trade duration10.7 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown9.0%
drawdown periodMay 05, 2023 - June 07, 2023
Cumul. Return63.4%
Avg win$318
Avg loss$204

Ratios

W:L ratio1.81
Sharpe Ratio1.15
Sortino Ratio3.19
Calmar Ratio9.43

Verified

C2Star0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life94.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)54.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)72.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.6%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)16.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss0.5%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated99.9%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)787
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)950
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)896

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$204
Avg Win$318
# Winners191
Sum Trade PL (losers)$33,692
Sum Trade PL (winners)$60,826
Num Months Winners9
# Losers165
% Winners53.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table46

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)643.35
Avg Position Time (hrs)10.72
Avg Trade Length0.40
Last Trade Ago1096

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)3.63
Daily leverage (max)32.66

Regression

Alpha0.03
Beta0
Treynor Index9.96

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-5.93
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats33.33
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats65.73
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.57
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.11
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.17

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.75
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.89
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.65
df9
t2.64
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.36
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.17
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.12
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0.75
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0.33
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms10
N negative terms0
N of observations10
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.75
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance0.01
r0.33
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.69
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.66
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error8
t(b)0.99
p(b)0.18
t(a)2.20
p(a)0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.35
Treynor index (mean / b)1.09
Jensen alpha (a)0.66
Mean0.70
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.06
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.79
df9
t2.79
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.56
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.29
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.30
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0.70
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0.30
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms10
N negative terms0
N of observations10
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.70
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance0.01
r0.33
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.61
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.62
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error8
t(b)0.98
p(b)0.18
t(a)2.36
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.23
Treynor index (mean / b)1.15
Jensen alpha (a)0.62
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
Mean0.67
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.99
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.98
df233
t3.77
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.88
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio6.09
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.87
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation6.08
Sortino ratio11.95
Upside Potential Ratio17.38
Upside part of mean0.97
Downside part of mean-0.30
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms163
N negative terms71
N of observations234
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion0.67
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.50
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error232
t(b)0.29
p(b)0.39
t(a)3.75
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.02
Treynor index (mean / b)29.19
Jensen alpha (a)0.67
Mean0.65
SD0.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.98
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.96
df233
t3.76
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio6.08
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.86
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation6.07
Sortino ratio11.61
Upside Potential Ratio17.03
Upside part of mean0.96
Downside part of mean-0.31
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms163
N negative terms71
N of observations234
Mean of predictor0.10
Mean of criterion0.65
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.16
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.65
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error232
t(b)0.28
p(b)0.39
t(a)3.73
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.00
Treynor index (mean / b)29.76
Jensen alpha (a)0.65
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean0.37
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.84
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.83
df130
t2.01
p0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.63
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.03
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.62
Sortino ratio8.36
Upside Potential Ratio13.40
Upside part of mean0.60
Downside part of mean-0.23
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms97
N negative terms34
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion0.37
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.00
r0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.36
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error129
t(b)1.48
p(b)0.42
t(a)1.93
p(a)0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.73
Treynor index (mean / b)2.66
Jensen alpha (a)0.36
Mean0.37
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.83
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.81
df130
t2.00
p0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.62
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.02
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.61
Sortino ratio8.12
Upside Potential Ratio13.16
Upside part of mean0.59
Downside part of mean-0.23
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms97
N negative terms34
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.10
Mean of criterion0.37
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.00
r0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.35
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error129
t(b)1.48
p(b)0.42
t(a)1.93
p(a)0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.71
Treynor index (mean / b)2.63
Jensen alpha (a)0.35
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations10
Minimum1.00
Quartile 11.02
Median1.04
Quartile 31.08
Maximum1.26
Mean of quarter 11.01
Mean of quarter 21.03
Mean of quarter 31.06
Mean of quarter 41.14
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.26
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations234
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low18
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high41
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.62
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.05
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.99
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low19
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high28
Percentage of outliers high0.21
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.02
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.36
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.00

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations21
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.07
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.04
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.34
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.06
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.24
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08
Number of observations9
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.07
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.04
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.98
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)2.30
Extreme Value Index (regression method)4.36
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.30
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-314411104
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)33
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.95
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.02
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal13.58
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.89
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.93
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)12.97
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs24.50
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal50.51
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.40
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.44
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)6.18
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs10.88
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal29.51

Trading record

Placed 205 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
M6B Z3short3Sep 12, 2023Sep 13, 2023$22
M6B U3short2Sep 6, 2023Sep 12, 2023$7
MES U3long10Sep 7, 2023Sep 7, 2023$276
MES U3short5Sep 7, 2023Sep 7, 2023($87)
MES U3long4Sep 7, 2023Sep 7, 2023($45)
MES U3short3Sep 7, 2023Sep 7, 2023($33)
M6B U3short5Aug 28, 2023Sep 6, 2023$247
M6B Z3long1Aug 28, 2023Sep 1, 2023$13
M6B U3short10Aug 24, 2023Aug 28, 2023$38
MES U3long10Aug 28, 2023Aug 28, 2023$608
M6B U3long4Aug 24, 2023Aug 24, 2023($199)
QRB V3short1Aug 24, 2023Aug 24, 2023$815
QCL V3long1Aug 24, 2023Aug 24, 2023($408)
M6B U3long4Aug 23, 2023Aug 24, 2023$2
MES U3long2Aug 24, 2023Aug 24, 2023$16
M6B U3short4Aug 23, 2023Aug 23, 2023($226)
BX U3short5Aug 23, 2023Aug 23, 2023$1,627
SF U3short2Aug 23, 2023Aug 23, 2023($354)
SF U3long1Aug 23, 2023Aug 23, 2023($214)
SF U3short1Aug 22, 2023Aug 23, 2023($196)
M6B U3long4Aug 22, 2023Aug 22, 2023($139)
SF U3long1Aug 22, 2023Aug 22, 2023($271)
SF U3long2Aug 21, 2023Aug 22, 2023($41)
M6B U3short3Aug 21, 2023Aug 22, 2023($90)
M6B U3short1Aug 16, 2023Aug 21, 2023($7)
M6B U3short2Aug 11, 2023Aug 16, 2023($20)
MES U3long2Aug 10, 2023Aug 10, 2023$136
MES U3short2Aug 10, 2023Aug 10, 2023$16
M6B U3short2Aug 8, 2023Aug 10, 2023($146)
M6B U3long1Aug 7, 2023Aug 8, 2023($38)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.