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FDXM dax

Futures · Futures · Started Dec 2022

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
20.7%
Max Drawdown
43.4%
Trades
523
Win Trades
52.2%
Profit Factor
1.40
Win Months
23.9%

About this strategy

There's no exceptions to trading rules. once you violate it , you will violate more. That's not one violation, that's just the beginning. The best way is never violate the rules, No exceptions.

Macro / Fundamental

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20222.02.0
202321.113.06.10.3-5.712.90.95.08.72.1-25.046.2100.1
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/3/2022
Suggested Minimum Capital$29,052
Age46 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades523
# Profitable273
% Profitable52.2%
Avg trade duration6.4 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown43.4%
drawdown periodOct 25, 2023 - Dec 06, 2023
Annual Return (Compounded)20.7%
Avg win$568
Avg loss$456

Ratios

W:L ratio1.36
Sharpe Ratio0.67
Sortino Ratio1.01
Calmar Ratio2.91

Verified

C2Star0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life87.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)16.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)20.7%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)26.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss29.5%
Chance of 20% account loss7.0%
Chance of 30% account loss1.0%
Chance of 40% account loss1.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated99.9%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$456
Avg Win$568
# Winners273
Sum Trade PL (losers)$113,991
Sum Trade PL (winners)$155,167
Num Months Winners11
# Losers250
% Winners52.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table46

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)382.32
Avg Position Time (hrs)6.37
Avg Trade Length0.30
Last Trade Ago998

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)8.60
Daily leverage (max)103.74

Regression

Alpha0.06
Beta-0.02
Treynor Index-2.97

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-17.99
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.46
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats53.13
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats58.16
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.63
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.27
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.06

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.77
SD0.54
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.43
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.35
df15
t1.65
p0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.18
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.41
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.12
Sortino ratio4.95
Upside Potential Ratio6.34
Upside part of mean0.98
Downside part of mean-0.22
Upside SD0.54
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms7
N of observations16
Mean of predictor0.45
Mean of criterion0.77
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.54
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.75
Mean Square Error0.31
DF error14
t(b)0.05
p(b)0.49
t(a)1.33
p(a)0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.97
Treynor index (mean / b)25.11
Jensen alpha (a)0.75
Mean0.63
SD0.47
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.36
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.29
df15
t1.57
p0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.10
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.47
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.05
Sortino ratio3.83
Upside Potential Ratio5.21
Upside part of mean0.86
Downside part of mean-0.23
Upside SD0.46
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms7
N of observations16
Mean of predictor0.42
Mean of criterion0.63
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.47
Covariance0.00
r0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.63
Mean Square Error0.23
DF error14
t(b)0.01
p(b)0.50
t(a)1.28
p(a)0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.69
Treynor index (mean / b)75.35
Jensen alpha (a)0.63
VaR(95%)0.16
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.20
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
Mean0.69
SD0.35
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.95
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.95
df351
t2.26
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.65
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.25
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.65
Sortino ratio3.05
Upside Potential Ratio6.47
Upside part of mean1.47
Downside part of mean-0.78
Upside SD0.28
Downside SD0.23
N nonnegative terms133
N negative terms219
N of observations352
Mean of predictor0.47
Mean of criterion0.69
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.35
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.71
Mean Square Error0.13
DF error350
t(b)-0.43
p(b)0.67
t(a)2.30
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.32
Treynor index (mean / b)-19.87
Jensen alpha (a)0.71
Mean0.63
SD0.36
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.76
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.76
df351
t2.04
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.46
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.06
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.46
Sortino ratio2.60
Upside Potential Ratio5.92
Upside part of mean1.44
Downside part of mean-0.81
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.24
N nonnegative terms133
N negative terms219
N of observations352
Mean of predictor0.44
Mean of criterion0.63
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.36
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.64
Mean Square Error0.13
DF error350
t(b)-0.41
p(b)0.66
t(a)2.08
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.25
Treynor index (mean / b)-18.57
Jensen alpha (a)0.64
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.42
SD0.54
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.77
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.77
df130
t0.55
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.55
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.00
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.54
Sortino ratio1.16
Upside Potential Ratio5.18
Upside part of mean1.88
Downside part of mean-1.46
Upside SD0.40
Downside SD0.36
N nonnegative terms23
N negative terms108
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.10
Mean of criterion0.42
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.54
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.44
Mean Square Error0.30
DF error129
t(b)-0.15
p(b)0.51
t(a)0.56
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.00
Treynor index (mean / b)-18.92
Jensen alpha (a)0.44
Mean0.27
SD0.55
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.50
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.50
df130
t0.35
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.27
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.28
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.27
Sortino ratio0.70
Upside Potential Ratio4.65
Upside part of mean1.80
Downside part of mean-1.53
Upside SD0.38
Downside SD0.39
N nonnegative terms23
N negative terms108
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.05
Mean of criterion0.27
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.55
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.29
Mean Square Error0.30
DF error129
t(b)-0.13
p(b)0.51
t(a)0.37
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.31
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.85
Treynor index (mean / b)-14.81
Jensen alpha (a)0.29
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations16
Minimum0.85
Quartile 11.00
Median1.02
Quartile 31.11
Maximum1.49
Mean of quarter 10.93
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.06
Mean of quarter 41.27
Inter Quartile Range0.11
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.41
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-20.77
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.52
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.18
Number of observations352
Minimum0.82
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.14
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low34
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high62
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.29
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.94
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.16
Number of observations131
Minimum0.82
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.14
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low17
Percentage of outliers low0.13
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high23
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.35
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.32
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.04
Quartile 30.13
Maximum0.22
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.22
Inter Quartile Range0.11
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations22
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.32
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high0.24
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.78
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.53
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.25
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.16
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations3
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.08
Median0.15
Quartile 30.24
Maximum0.32
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.15
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.32
Inter Quartile Range0.16
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-402835040
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)42
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.06
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.94
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)4.24
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs4.24
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.67
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.05
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.93
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.91
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs8.98
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal22.06
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.32
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.35
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.09
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.09
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal5.29

Trading record

Placed 1129 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
RTY H4long4Dec 19, 2023Dec 19, 2023$1,313
RTY H4long20Dec 19, 2023Dec 19, 2023$7,450
RTY H4long10Dec 18, 2023Dec 19, 2023$300
RTY H4long10Dec 15, 2023Dec 18, 2023$2,965
RTY H4long2Dec 15, 2023Dec 15, 2023$1,144
ES H4short10Dec 14, 2023Dec 14, 2023$1,208
ES H4long2Dec 14, 2023Dec 14, 2023($1,216)
ES H4long2Dec 13, 2023Dec 13, 2023$1,384
ES H4long2Dec 13, 2023Dec 13, 2023$234
ES H4long2Dec 7, 2023Dec 13, 2023$9,122
RTY H4long20Dec 13, 2023Dec 13, 2023$4,235
NQ Z3long10Dec 6, 2023Dec 6, 2023($5,310)
RTY Z3long20Dec 6, 2023Dec 6, 2023$5,505
ES Z3long15Dec 5, 2023Dec 5, 2023($3,020)
RTY Z3long6Dec 3, 2023Dec 4, 2023$822
RTY Z3long8Dec 1, 2023Dec 1, 2023$324
ES Z3long12Nov 30, 2023Nov 30, 2023($3,921)
ES Z3short10Nov 30, 2023Nov 30, 2023($4,880)
ES Z3long10Nov 30, 2023Nov 30, 2023($2,530)
ES Z3long10Nov 30, 2023Nov 30, 2023($1,080)
ES Z3long10Nov 29, 2023Nov 29, 2023($3,655)
ES Z3short10Nov 29, 2023Nov 29, 2023$645
ES Z3long10Nov 29, 2023Nov 29, 2023($1,355)
RTY Z3long14Nov 29, 2023Nov 29, 2023$2,863
ES Z3long4Nov 29, 2023Nov 29, 2023($182)
ES Z3long2Nov 29, 2023Nov 29, 2023$597
ES Z3long6Nov 28, 2023Nov 29, 2023$752
ES Z3long6Nov 28, 2023Nov 28, 2023$3,177
ES Z3short10Nov 28, 2023Nov 28, 2023($4,405)
ES Z3long6Nov 27, 2023Nov 27, 2023($2,436)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.