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The QQQ x3 Daily

Equity · Stocks · Started Jul 2022

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
7.6%
Max Drawdown
19.8%
Trades
216
Win Trades
49.1%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
27.5%

About this strategy

Trades TQQQ (3x long NASDAQ ETF) and SQQQ (3x short NASDAQ ETF). Positions are traded for couple of days each time. $15k+ recommended, margin required, auto-trading highly recommended.


Leveraged ETFs are great for making outsized returns (3X). The disadvantage is the huge potential drawdowns due to 3x leverage. Think of this strategy as one that buys and holds TQQQ/SQQQ.
TQQQ/SQQQ are highly volatile! Because of this, only use risk money (money you are comfortable with losing 100% with this strategy.

1. 3x ETFs are EXTREMELY VOLATILE and risky, should be part of your total account only
2. Margin required. No martingale or margin used (if IRA, IRA margin required)
3. If starting system, *** ENTER EXISTING OPEN POSITIONS ***
4. Position size is part of the strategy, be sure to set scaling properly
5. ETFs not available on IB in Europe https://europoor.com/how-to-buy-leveraged-etfs-from-europe/
6. $10k+ account size recommended
7. Auto-trading *** HIGHLY *** recommended.

Sector: Technology Short-term Reversal

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2022-0.3-5.60.1-1.5-5.78.5-5.1
2023-6.31.84.64.03.8-2.32.616.44.411.3-12.05.635.6
2024-4.919.3-6.51.9-0.25.0-2.20.0-5.20.00.00.05.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began7/31/2022
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age50 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades216
# Profitable106
% Profitable49.1%
Avg trade duration1.9 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown19.8%
drawdown periodOct 17, 2023 - Feb 06, 2024
Annual Return (Compounded)7.6%
Avg win$1,105
Avg loss$865

Ratios

W:L ratio1.23
Sharpe Ratio0.36
Sortino Ratio0.55
Calmar Ratio0.96

Verified

C2Star0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life84.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-49.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)7.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)9.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity12.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.6%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss45.0%
Chance of 20% account loss11.5%
Chance of 30% account loss1.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$865
Avg Win$1,105
# Winners106
Sum Trade PL (losers)$95,136
Sum Trade PL (winners)$117,115
Num Months Winners15
# Losers110
% Winners49.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct351

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table51

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)2742.08
Avg Position Time (hrs)45.70
Avg Trade Length1.90
Last Trade Ago735

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.80
Daily leverage (max)4.89

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta-0.03
Treynor Index-0.55

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.05
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades15.60
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.12
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.49
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.24
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.06

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.14
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.63
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.61
df29
t0.99
p0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.87
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.64
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.86
Sortino ratio1.63
Upside Potential Ratio3.58
Upside part of mean0.31
Downside part of mean-0.17
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms11
N negative terms19
N of observations30
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion0.14
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance-0.01
r-0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.18
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.18
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error28
t(b)-0.86
p(b)0.80
t(a)1.20
p(a)0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.50
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.81
Jensen alpha (a)0.18
Mean0.12
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.56
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.54
df29
t0.88
p0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.80
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.70
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.79
Sortino ratio1.32
Upside Potential Ratio3.26
Upside part of mean0.29
Downside part of mean-0.17
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms11
N negative terms19
N of observations30
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance-0.01
r-0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.18
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.16
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error28
t(b)-0.88
p(b)0.81
t(a)1.10
p(a)0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.45
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.67
Jensen alpha (a)0.16
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
Mean0.14
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.71
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.71
df660
t1.13
p0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.94
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.53
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.94
Sortino ratio1.09
Upside Potential Ratio7.87
Upside part of mean0.99
Downside part of mean-0.85
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms224
N negative terms437
N of observations661
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion0.14
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance-0.00
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.14
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error659
t(b)-0.92
p(b)0.82
t(a)1.19
p(a)0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.38
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.80
Jensen alpha (a)0.15
Mean0.12
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.62
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.61
df660
t0.98
p0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.85
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.62
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.85
Sortino ratio0.93
Upside Potential Ratio7.68
Upside part of mean0.98
Downside part of mean-0.86
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms224
N negative terms437
N of observations661
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance-0.00
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.13
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error659
t(b)-0.93
p(b)0.82
t(a)1.04
p(a)0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.36
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.26
Jensen alpha (a)0.13
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.62
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.58
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6808876615729152
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)1.17791609862899e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations30
Minimum0.93
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.27
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.10
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.20
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-4.15
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.54
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations661
Minimum0.95
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low68
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high77
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.26
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.10
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.03
Median0.06
Quartile 30.08
Maximum0.11
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.06
Mean of quarter 30.07
Mean of quarter 40.09
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations15
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.16
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.14
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.89
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.15
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.61
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.16
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.18
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-388425120
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)112
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.18
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.16
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.49
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.71
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.44
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.18
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.16
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.96
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.15
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal6.63
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 361 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
TQQQ long500Aug 28, 2024Sep 5, 2024($3,815)
TQQQ long1000Aug 19, 2024Aug 26, 2024$210
SQQQ long4000Jul 25, 2024Jul 29, 2024($1,226)
TQQQ long200Jul 5, 2024Jul 9, 2024$566
TQQQ long800Jun 27, 2024Jul 1, 2024($1,205)
TQQQ long1000May 31, 2024Jun 7, 2024$5,255
TQQQ long300May 31, 2024May 31, 2024($54)
SQQQ long4500May 28, 2024May 31, 2024$2,088
TQQQ long1000May 28, 2024May 28, 2024$329
SQQQ long3000May 21, 2024May 28, 2024($1,085)
SQQQ long6000May 7, 2024May 15, 2024($3,548)
TQQQ long1000May 6, 2024May 7, 2024$1,401
SQQQ long3000May 3, 2024May 6, 2024($359)
SQQQ long6100Apr 29, 2024Apr 29, 2024($501)
TQQQ long1100Apr 22, 2024Apr 24, 2024$3,995
TQQQ long1000Apr 22, 2024Apr 22, 2024($785)
TQQQ long1200Apr 18, 2024Apr 19, 2024($3,681)
TQQQ long600Apr 18, 2024Apr 18, 2024($62)
SQQQ long6100Apr 15, 2024Apr 17, 2024$2,172
TQQQ long1200Apr 15, 2024Apr 15, 2024($2,569)
SQQQ long1400Apr 11, 2024Apr 15, 2024($292)
TQQQ long1100Apr 8, 2024Apr 11, 2024($242)
SQQQ long4000Apr 4, 2024Apr 5, 2024($543)
SQQQ long1500Apr 4, 2024Apr 4, 2024($2)
TQQQ long1100Apr 3, 2024Apr 4, 2024$1,118
TQQQ long1000Apr 3, 2024Apr 3, 2024($400)
SQQQ long6000Apr 1, 2024Apr 2, 2024$3,221
TQQQ long500Mar 22, 2024Mar 22, 2024$231
TQQQ long1100Mar 20, 2024Mar 21, 2024($141)
TQQQ long600Mar 19, 2024Mar 20, 2024($85)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.