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FxMacros

Forex · Started Jul 2022

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
12.2%
Max Drawdown
17.5%
Trades
208
Win Trades
55.8%
Profit Factor
1.60
Win Months
19.2%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20223.66.34.5-0.41.47.224.7
202312.84.1-0.2-0.2-1.212.4-1.51.51.60.00.00.032.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began7/11/2022
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age52 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades208
# Profitable116
% Profitable55.8%
Avg trade duration19.6 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown17.5%
drawdown periodNov 14, 2022 - Nov 14, 2022
Annual Return (Compounded)12.2%
Avg win$814
Avg loss$655

Ratios

W:L ratio1.57
Sharpe Ratio0.73
Sortino Ratio1.13
Calmar Ratio3.50

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.05
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life95.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-35.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)12.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)12.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss36.5%
Chance of 20% account loss10.5%
Chance of 30% account loss1.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated100.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$655
Avg Win$814
# Winners116
Sum Trade PL (losers)$60,244
Sum Trade PL (winners)$94,471
Num Months Winners10
# Losers92
% Winners55.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table52

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1178.65
Avg Position Time (hrs)19.64
Avg Trade Length0.80
Last Trade Ago1149

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)5.19
Daily leverage (max)33.71

Regression

Alpha0.03
Beta-0.04
Treynor Index-0.80

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades5.81
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.19
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.77
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.45
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.17

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.44
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.55
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.41
df14
t2.86
p0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.51
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.45
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.38
Sortino ratio12.35
Upside Potential Ratio13.49
Upside part of mean0.48
Downside part of mean-0.04
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms3
N of observations15
Mean of predictor0.51
Mean of criterion0.44
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.42
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error13
t(b)0.15
p(b)0.47
t(a)2.36
p(a)0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.81
Treynor index (mean / b)17.71
Jensen alpha (a)0.42
Mean0.42
SD0.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.56
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.42
df14
t2.86
p0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.54
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.51
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.45
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.39
Sortino ratio11.56
Upside Potential Ratio12.70
Upside part of mean0.46
Downside part of mean-0.04
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms3
N of observations15
Mean of predictor0.46
Mean of criterion0.42
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.16
Covariance0.00
r0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.40
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error13
t(b)0.22
p(b)0.46
t(a)2.37
p(a)0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.77
Treynor index (mean / b)11.38
Jensen alpha (a)0.40
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.42
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.95
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.94
df345
t2.24
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.66
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.23
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.65
Sortino ratio3.18
Upside Potential Ratio8.44
Upside part of mean1.11
Downside part of mean-0.69
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms256
N negative terms90
N of observations346
Mean of predictor0.56
Mean of criterion0.42
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance-0.00
r-0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.44
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error344
t(b)-0.98
p(b)0.84
t(a)2.34
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.81
Treynor index (mean / b)-10.14
Jensen alpha (a)0.44
Mean0.39
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.85
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.84
df345
t2.12
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.56
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.13
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.55
Sortino ratio2.94
Upside Potential Ratio8.16
Upside part of mean1.09
Downside part of mean-0.70
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms256
N negative terms90
N of observations346
Mean of predictor0.53
Mean of criterion0.39
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance-0.00
r-0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.42
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error344
t(b)-1.02
p(b)0.85
t(a)2.23
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.79
Treynor index (mean / b)-9.26
Jensen alpha (a)0.42
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.20
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.06
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.06
df130
t0.75
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.72
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.83
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.72
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.83
Sortino ratio1.49
Upside Potential Ratio5.48
Upside part of mean0.72
Downside part of mean-0.53
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms107
N negative terms24
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.18
Mean of criterion0.20
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance-0.00
r-0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.24
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error129
t(b)-0.75
p(b)0.54
t(a)0.88
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.76
Treynor index (mean / b)-5.75
Jensen alpha (a)0.24
Mean0.18
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.96
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.96
df130
t0.68
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.73
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.82
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.73
Sortino ratio1.32
Upside Potential Ratio5.27
Upside part of mean0.71
Downside part of mean-0.53
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms107
N negative terms24
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.12
Mean of criterion0.18
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance-0.00
r-0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.22
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error129
t(b)-0.73
p(b)0.54
t(a)0.81
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.12
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.75
Treynor index (mean / b)-5.32
Jensen alpha (a)0.22
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations15
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11
Median1.03
Quartile 31.06
Maximum1.14
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.05
Mean of quarter 41.10
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.95
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.64
Number of observations346
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.08
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low40
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high48
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.29
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.21
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low24
Percentage of outliers low0.18
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high29
Percentage of outliers high0.22
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.46
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.66
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.04
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.04
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations22
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.02
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.14
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.08
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high0.14
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.03
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.11
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.85
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08
Number of observations3
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.03
Median0.05
Quartile 30.10
Maximum0.14
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.14
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-1223193472
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)18
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.55
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.52
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)13.39
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs13.39
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal8.60
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.52
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.48
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)3.50
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs5.79
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal19.06
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.19
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.20
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.41
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.41
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal8.61

Trading record

Placed 14 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
USD/JPY short210Sep 5, 2023Sep 6, 2023$186
EUR/USD short430Sep 4, 2023Sep 5, 2023$1,950
USD/JPY short210Aug 24, 2023Sep 1, 2023($696)
EUR/USD short210Aug 30, 2023Aug 31, 2023$456
USD/JPY short210Aug 24, 2023Aug 24, 2023($802)
USD/JPY short430Aug 23, 2023Aug 23, 2023$1,330
USD/JPY short430Aug 22, 2023Aug 23, 2023$500
EUR/USD short630Aug 21, 2023Aug 22, 2023$416
EUR/USD short420Aug 20, 2023Aug 20, 2023($29)
AUD/USD short210Aug 17, 2023Aug 17, 2023$210
USD/JPY long210Aug 16, 2023Aug 17, 2023($390)
AUD/USD long210Aug 14, 2023Aug 16, 2023($1,077)
AUD/USD long210Aug 10, 2023Aug 13, 2023($1,212)
EUR/USD short210Aug 8, 2023Aug 8, 2023$590
USD/JPY short440Aug 7, 2023Aug 7, 2023($1,726)
USD/CAD short220Aug 3, 2023Aug 3, 2023$249
EUR/USD short210Jul 27, 2023Jul 27, 2023$2,940
USD/JPY long210Jul 27, 2023Jul 27, 2023($12)
AUD/USD long210Jul 26, 2023Jul 27, 2023$69
NZD/USD short420Jul 25, 2023Jul 25, 2023$708
GBP/USD short210Jul 25, 2023Jul 25, 2023$241
USD/CHF long210Jul 23, 2023Jul 24, 2023$490
USD/JPY long420Jul 21, 2023Jul 21, 2023$647
EUR/USD short210Jul 20, 2023Jul 21, 2023($44)
USD/JPY long420Jul 21, 2023Jul 21, 2023$1,248
USD/CHF long210Jul 20, 2023Jul 20, 2023($69)
USD/CHF long420Jul 20, 2023Jul 20, 2023($190)
EUR/USD short200Jul 20, 2023Jul 20, 2023$378
GBP/USD short200Jul 19, 2023Jul 20, 2023$926
USD/JPY long190Jul 19, 2023Jul 20, 2023$400

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.