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MultiTrust

Equity · Stocks · Started Jun 2022

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
2.6%
Max Drawdown
9.1%
Trades
446
Win Trades
54.9%
Profit Factor
1.60
Win Months
11.5%

About this strategy

I have published my strategy here for 9 months and was always in the top 10. Since no one wants to book and pay for this strategy, but I pay every month 39$ for it, it is a losing business for me. I will rather invest this money in my trades.
From 23 March 2023 I will unfortunately no longer update the system.

Short-term Reversal

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2022-2.95.8-4.93.35.53.5-0.49.7
20232.70.1-1.20.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.01.6
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began6/26/2022
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age51 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades446
# Profitable245
% Profitable54.9%
Avg trade duration13.6 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown9.1%
drawdown periodAug 25, 2022 - Sept 03, 2022
Annual Return (Compounded)2.6%
Avg win$42
Avg loss$32

Ratios

W:L ratio1.61
Sharpe Ratio0.14
Sortino Ratio0.23
Calmar Ratio2.38

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.22
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life95.6%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-83.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)2.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)3.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity3.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss15.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$32
Avg Win$42
# Winners245
Sum Trade PL (losers)$6,512
Sum Trade PL (winners)$10,250
Num Months Winners7
# Losers201
% Winners54.9%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct251

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table52

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)19607.88
Avg Position Time (hrs)326.80
Avg Trade Length13.60
Last Trade Ago1266

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.86
Daily leverage (max)1.90

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.07
Treynor Index0.03

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades4.95
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.36
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.61
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.50
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.20

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.10
SD0.06
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.79
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.68
df13
t1.93
p0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.70
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.24
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.61
Sortino ratio8.18
Upside Potential Ratio10.05
Upside part of mean0.13
Downside part of mean-0.02
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms7
N negative terms7
N of observations14
Mean of predictor0.59
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0.06
Covariance-0.01
r-0.36
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.14
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error12
t(b)-1.32
p(b)0.68
t(a)2.37
p(a)0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.27
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.75
Jensen alpha (a)0.14
Mean0.10
SD0.06
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.78
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.67
df13
t1.92
p0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.69
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.25
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.60
Sortino ratio7.99
Upside Potential Ratio9.85
Upside part of mean0.13
Downside part of mean-0.02
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms7
N negative terms7
N of observations14
Mean of predictor0.53
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.06
Covariance-0.01
r-0.35
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.14
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error12
t(b)-1.29
p(b)0.67
t(a)2.34
p(a)0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.26
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.64
Jensen alpha (a)0.14
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.10
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.14
df312
t1.25
p0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.94
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.65
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.94
Sortino ratio2.02
Upside Potential Ratio8.37
Upside part of mean0.43
Downside part of mean-0.33
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms83
N negative terms230
N of observations313
Mean of predictor0.58
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance0.01
r0.22
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error311
t(b)4.04
p(b)0.00
t(a)0.76
p(a)0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.22
Treynor index (mean / b)1.45
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
Mean0.10
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.11
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.10
df312
t1.21
p0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.90
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.69
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.90
Sortino ratio1.93
Upside Potential Ratio8.27
Upside part of mean0.43
Downside part of mean-0.33
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms83
N negative terms230
N of observations313
Mean of predictor0.54
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance0.01
r0.22
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error311
t(b)4.06
p(b)0.00
t(a)0.75
p(a)0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.22
Treynor index (mean / b)1.39
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0.02
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.59
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.58
df130
t-1.12
p0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.20
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.35
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.20
Sortino ratio-1.87
Upside Potential Ratio1.99
Upside part of mean0.03
Downside part of mean-0.07
Upside SD0.01
Downside SD0.02
N nonnegative terms11
N negative terms120
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.39
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0.02
Covariance0.00
r0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.04
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)1.14
p(b)0.44
t(a)-1.36
p(a)0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.02
Treynor index (mean / b)-5.50
Jensen alpha (a)-0.04
Mean-0.03
SD0.02
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.59
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.58
df130
t-1.13
p0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.19
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.36
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.20
Sortino ratio-1.87
Upside Potential Ratio1.98
Upside part of mean0.03
Downside part of mean-0.07
Upside SD0.01
Downside SD0.02
N nonnegative terms11
N negative terms120
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.33
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0.02
Covariance0.00
r0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.04
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)1.14
p(b)0.44
t(a)-1.36
p(a)0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.02
Treynor index (mean / b)-5.53
Jensen alpha (a)-0.04
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations14
Minimum0.99
Quartile 11
Median1.00
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.22
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations313
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low59
Percentage of outliers low0.19
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high55
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.07
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.04
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.99
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.01
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high12
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.10
VaR(95%) (regression method)-0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.01
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations11
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.06
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.04
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high0.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.54
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.99
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)9.01
Number of observations2
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.01
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-419242304
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)9
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.14
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)15.01
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs15.01
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal5.48
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.14
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.38
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.72
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal12.33
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.00
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.00
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.35
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.35
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.55

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
KR long12Mar 13, 2023Mar 24, 2023$20
WST long2Mar 10, 2023Mar 23, 2023$33
BIO long1Mar 13, 2023Mar 23, 2023($8)
RF long25Mar 14, 2023Mar 23, 2023($50)
CLX long4Mar 13, 2023Mar 23, 2023$16
ZION long15Mar 14, 2023Mar 23, 2023($87)
CHD long7Mar 13, 2023Mar 23, 2023$1
AMCR long55Mar 13, 2023Mar 23, 2023$5
WMT long4Mar 13, 2023Mar 23, 2023$14
STE long3Mar 20, 2023Mar 23, 2023$16
SNPS long1Mar 20, 2023Mar 23, 2023$2
ORCL long7Mar 13, 2023Mar 23, 2023$37
PGR long4Mar 13, 2023Mar 23, 2023($7)
GWW long1Mar 20, 2023Mar 23, 2023$1
ALL long5Mar 13, 2023Mar 23, 2023($38)
VNO short35Mar 13, 2023Mar 23, 2023$98
DLR long5Mar 9, 2023Mar 23, 2023($68)
EXC long15Mar 20, 2023Mar 23, 2023($38)
CSGP long8Mar 15, 2023Mar 23, 2023($8)
NEE long8Mar 13, 2023Mar 23, 2023$6
ADBE long1Mar 9, 2023Mar 23, 2023$24
DTE long4Mar 20, 2023Mar 23, 2023($14)
IBM long4Mar 15, 2023Mar 23, 2023$3
MSFT long2Mar 14, 2023Mar 23, 2023$42
ANSS long2Mar 20, 2023Mar 23, 2023$1
KDP long15Mar 9, 2023Mar 23, 2023($5)
CI long2Mar 13, 2023Mar 23, 2023($10)
EQX long1Mar 9, 2023Mar 23, 2023$1
AEP long6Mar 13, 2023Mar 20, 2023$20
FAST long10Mar 9, 2023Mar 20, 2023($10)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.