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AT Phoenix

Futures · Started Mar 2021

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-7.9%
Max Drawdown
63.3%
Trades
161
Win Trades
49.7%
Profit Factor
0.90
Win Months
9.0%

About this strategy

Send us a message for pricing information. This algorithm has been back-tested from 2003-2020, but officially went live in March 2021.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2021-10.716.1-12.6-12.593.0-5.72.110.5-16.79.248.1
2022-32.6-4.8-4.1-22.941.1-35.60.00.00.00.00.00.0-56.9
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began3/22/2021
Suggested Minimum Capital$20,000
Age66 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades161
# Profitable80
% Profitable49.7%
Avg trade duration1.9 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown63.4%
drawdown periodOct 27, 2021 - June 10, 2022
Annual Return (Compounded)-7.9%
Avg win$876
Avg loss$938

Ratios

W:L ratio0.92
Sharpe Ratio-0.16
Sortino Ratio-0.21
Calmar Ratio-0.36

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.11
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life94.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-129.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-7.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-5.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity172.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss31.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$938
Avg Win$876
# Winners80
Sum Trade PL (losers)$75,942
Sum Trade PL (winners)$70,111
Num Months Winners6
# Losers81
% Winners49.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table67

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)2743.65
Avg Position Time (hrs)45.73
Avg Trade Length1.90
Last Trade Ago1545

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)10.48
Daily leverage (max)36.39

Regression

Alpha-0.02
Beta0.21
Treynor Index-0.07

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.04
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.11
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.05
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-4.55
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.03
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.48
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.23
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.22

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.12
SD1.00
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.12
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.11
df14
t0.13
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.87
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.64
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.87
Sortino ratio0.23
Upside Potential Ratio2.04
Upside part of mean1.06
Downside part of mean-0.94
Upside SD0.82
Downside SD0.52
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms10
N of observations15
Mean of predictor0.46
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion1.00
Covariance0.06
r0.22
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.79
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.24
Mean Square Error1.03
DF error13
t(b)0.80
p(b)0.36
t(a)-0.24
p(a)0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.92
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.95
Treynor index (mean / b)0.15
Jensen alpha (a)-0.24
Mean-0.28
SD0.90
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.31
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.29
df14
t-0.34
p0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.45
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.05
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.47
Sortino ratio-0.44
Upside Potential Ratio1.31
Upside part of mean0.83
Downside part of mean-1.11
Upside SD0.60
Downside SD0.63
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms10
N of observations15
Mean of predictor0.41
Mean of criterion-0.28
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.90
Covariance0.08
r0.34
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.17
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.76
Mean Square Error0.77
DF error13
t(b)1.31
p(b)0.29
t(a)-0.88
p(a)0.65
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.12
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.24
Jensen alpha (a)-0.76
VaR(95%)0.36
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.43
VaR(95%)0.21
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.39
Mean-0.09
SD0.59
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.15
df343
t-0.17
p0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.56
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.86
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.56
Sortino ratio-0.21
Upside Potential Ratio4.96
Upside part of mean2.10
Downside part of mean-2.19
Upside SD0.41
Downside SD0.42
N nonnegative terms108
N negative terms236
N of observations344
Mean of predictor0.54
Mean of criterion-0.09
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.59
Covariance0.02
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.21
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.20
Mean Square Error0.35
DF error342
t(b)2.18
p(b)0.01
t(a)-0.39
p(a)0.65
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.81
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.42
Jensen alpha (a)-0.20
Mean-0.26
SD0.60
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.44
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.44
df343
t-0.51
p0.69
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.27
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.15
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.27
Sortino ratio-0.58
Upside Potential Ratio4.46
Upside part of mean2.02
Downside part of mean-2.29
Upside SD0.38
Downside SD0.45
N nonnegative terms108
N negative terms236
N of observations344
Mean of predictor0.48
Mean of criterion-0.26
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.60
Covariance0.02
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.22
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.37
Mean Square Error0.35
DF error342
t(b)2.27
p(b)0.01
t(a)-0.72
p(a)0.76
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.65
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.19
Jensen alpha (a)-0.37
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean-0.07
SD0.46
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.14
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.14
df130
t-0.10
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.63
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.91
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.63
Sortino ratio-0.19
Upside Potential Ratio1.87
Upside part of mean0.67
Downside part of mean-0.73
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.36
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms128
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.40
Mean of criterion-0.07
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0.46
Covariance0.02
r0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.20
Mean Square Error0.21
DF error129
t(b)1.12
p(b)0.44
t(a)-0.31
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.11
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.68
Jensen alpha (a)-0.20
Mean-0.18
SD0.48
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.37
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.37
df130
t-0.26
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.40
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.14
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.41
Sortino ratio-0.45
Upside Potential Ratio1.59
Upside part of mean0.63
Downside part of mean-0.80
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.39
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms128
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.29
Mean of criterion-0.18
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0.48
Covariance0.02
r0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.31
Mean Square Error0.23
DF error129
t(b)1.18
p(b)0.43
t(a)-0.46
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.07
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.05
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.65
Jensen alpha (a)-0.31
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations15
Minimum0.59
Quartile 10.91
Median1
Quartile 31.07
Maximum1.89
Mean of quarter 10.74
Mean of quarter 20.98
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.33
Inter Quartile Range0.15
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.13
Mean of outliers low0.64
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.89
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-3.41
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.26
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.26
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.01
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.42
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.46
Number of observations344
Minimum0.80
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.26
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low57
Percentage of outliers low0.17
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high55
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.64
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.31
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations131
Minimum0.80
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.15
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.82
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.11
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.60
VaR(95%) (regression method)-2.26
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.04
Quartile 10.17
Median0.30
Quartile 30.43
Maximum0.56
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20.30
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.56
Inter Quartile Range0.26
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.05
Median0.12
Quartile 30.29
Maximum0.58
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.11
Mean of quarter 30.13
Mean of quarter 40.46
Inter Quartile Range0.24
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1
Minimum0.32
Quartile 10.32
Median0.32
Quartile 30.32
Maximum0.32
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-377346464
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)226
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.21
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.22
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.39
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.39
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.52
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.20
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.21
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.36
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.46
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-2.85
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.14
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.43
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-2.31

Trading record

Placed 330 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ES M2long1Jun 9, 2022Jun 10, 2022($2,630)
ES M2short1Jun 9, 2022Jun 9, 2022($742)
ES M2long1Jun 8, 2022Jun 9, 2022($778)
ES M2long1Jun 7, 2022Jun 8, 2022($1,030)
ES M2long1Jun 6, 2022Jun 7, 2022($1,789)
ES M2long1Jun 6, 2022Jun 6, 2022($445)
ES M2long1Jun 2, 2022Jun 2, 2022$372
ES M2long1May 27, 2022May 27, 2022$1,071
ES M2long1May 23, 2022May 23, 2022($465)
ES M2short2May 18, 2022May 18, 2022$2,825
ES M2long1May 13, 2022May 13, 2022$2,344
ES M2short1May 12, 2022May 12, 2022$24
ES M2long2Apr 21, 2022Apr 21, 2022($263)
ES M2long1Apr 12, 2022Apr 14, 2022$2,638
ES M2long1Apr 11, 2022Apr 12, 2022($891)
ES M2long1Apr 7, 2022Apr 8, 2022($876)
ES M2long1Apr 6, 2022Apr 7, 2022($866)
ES M2long1Apr 5, 2022Apr 6, 2022($2,170)
ES M2long1Apr 4, 2022Apr 5, 2022$387
ES M2long1Mar 31, 2022Mar 31, 2022($847)
ES M2long1Mar 30, 2022Mar 30, 2022$410
ES M2long1Mar 29, 2022Mar 30, 2022($876)
ES M2long2Mar 29, 2022Mar 29, 2022($793)
ES M2long1Mar 28, 2022Mar 28, 2022$477
ES M2long1Mar 24, 2022Mar 25, 2022$465
ES M2long1Mar 23, 2022Mar 24, 2022$619
ES M2long2Mar 22, 2022Mar 23, 2022($77)
ES M2long1Mar 16, 2022Mar 16, 2022($431)
ES H2short1Mar 4, 2022Mar 4, 2022($582)
ES H2long1Mar 2, 2022Mar 2, 2022($536)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.